Valspar Data and Betting Advice
Valspar Data and Betting Advice
Paint It Green
We previewed the course on Monday, so we know what to look for. Now we can pull our data and identify the best guys to consider this week.
Order of Email:
Model Details and Results
Betting Process
My Own Personal Plays
Email is a bit long, I would suggest opening in browser for best viewing (button above the title on top right of your email). For anyone who wants quick access to the downloadable model, it can be found here as well as within the post below.
Statistical Model Theory
For any new readers, I use the same thinking each week when we crunch the numbers - the majority of this post will be details on how I form the models, then we’ll talk over the results of each as we go. An old post explaining these stats can be found here.
Going back to my usual strategy of making 4 types of model, I am using the following weights this week:
25% Form Fit - We are always going to want to factor in ‘Current Form’ in some way; this category will usually look at the last 12 rounds over the last 2 months
25% Course Fit - This category factors in course history, comparable course history, as well as other characteristics of the course
30% Skill Fit - Similar to Course Fit, this category looks more at the skillset required to compete; could also call this category ‘Scoring Fit’
20% Safety Fit - This category is used to reward safer plays in our overall model score; heavily used in majors
Innisbrook ‘Fit’ Models
Now we’re going to look at what was included in each category of our overall model:
Form Fit
Focus on Approach and Putting when we look at recent form. I’d like them to be gaining everywhere, but these will be the most important metrics for Innisbrook. We’ll see a lot of less-than-driver from tee boxes, so makes sense to turn OTT down.
Doug Ghim cashed a Top 40 bet on him easily last week as he continued his run of great form. He’s now up to 5 straight Top 20 finishes going back to January. I will without doubt be backing him in a finishing position play again, possibly outright as well. The fit at this course is also fairly strong (you’ll see him in other charts) so there is a lot to like. Through his recent run, he’s gaining OTT and APP in all five events.
Always a bridesmaid Xander Schauffele comes next. 2nd at The PLAYERS and 4th at Genesis highlight his recent finishes. He’s playing great golf, can’t knock that, but it would be hard to pay sub 10/1 odds for a guy who has not won since summer of 2022. Most talented player in the field though, so certainly would not fade.
Last guy for this section, Sam Burns. We’ve backed him two weeks in a row to mixed results - decent finishes, never contended. There is a ton to like about him at Innisbrook, obviously, he has won it twice. I love the form and the history, just unsure I can get to him outright with the price being so short. I would look his way for a finishing position bet even if I skip outright. Other than his two Valspar wins, he has a 6th and 12th on his resume.
Course Fit
Looking at a variety of comparable courses this week, then of course still some course history. I have the comparables broken into two categories: Non-Florida courses (Harbour Town, Riviera, Colonial, and TPC River Highlands) and then the Florida courses (Sawgrass, Bay Hill, PGA National). Lastly, any performance on difficult scoring courses of the past two years.
I did not really have Jordan Spieth in mind coming into this week. Then I saw the course fit above and had to at least consider him. He’s consistent across the board when we look at comparables, then came in 3rd here last year to boost his course history along with his win back in 2015. Prices for the top tier are really short, so I ultimately will be scared off by his missed cut last week at Sawgrass.
Through his career, Sungjae Im has been a great Florida player. The accuracy demands suit his skillset and we see it play out with the data above. However, I am still skeptical of his form. Last week was at least a good showing, so there’s that. His odds have fallen to the 25/1 range for The Valspar, so it’s an easy skip for me. I would consider fading him against someone in more consistent form via matchup bet as well.
The only big name I was considering before seeing odds was Tony Finau. His tee-2-green game has been on point in 2024, then seeing good results undone with his putter. For much of The West Coast Swing, he was gaining 6+ shots ball striking, then losing 4+ on the greens. He’s now been field average for two weeks putting, so he could be turning the corner. I was disappointed the odds were not longer, still should be under consideration though.
Skill Fit
Pretty broad one here - main focus on approach play and long range proximity. After that, I have total putting of the past six months - it’s not pure Bermuda this far north in March, so I just a general baseline of who is putting well. Lastly, Good Drives gained to weed out anyone struggling to set up approach opportunities.
Oh Eric Cole. So good for months until the return to his home state. The numbers you see above are all from last Fall and the early 2024 season. Unfortunately, it’s been a turn for the worse - MC at Cognizant, 21st at API, MC at PLAYERS. Like many others, I was expecting big things from Cole during the Florida Swing, it’s just been the opposite. Yes, the price is better and he could return to form, but he’s an easy skip for me with how he’s been looking.
Last week’s chalky play almost pulled it out, Brian Harman. Could totally see him hanging around at Innisbrook too, it’s the same type of accuracy test as Sawgrass on very similar greens. Last week he gained 9 on approach (crazy) and 6 putting - those are exactly the type of numbers you’d want to see going into a test that favors those two areas more than most. He won’t be as nice on the odds-front, but offers more win equity than some of the names near him on the board. I’ll want to think more on what to do with him.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (C-Bez) stands out on the chart above for being the only bad driver who was strong enough in the other areas to score well overall. This is kind of the story of his career: bad OTT prevents his full potential from being realized (he is both shorter than field average and less accurate). Last week he gained an impressive 7 shots on approach and has been scoring well in long range proximity the past six months. He’s a good putter on all surfaces as well. If I can get over the driving shortcomings, he’s a great play this week.
Safety Fit
We’re looking to establish a high floor in Safety Fit most weeks. At Innisbrook, we’ll do that by rewarding fairway finders, good Par 5 players, and ARG play. You can win The Valspar by birdieing the Par 5’s and parring everywhere else, so this could be a nice stat to use a filter on when narrowing the field.
As per usual, Brendon Todd scores well on this one. Most weeks I have no interest in him, this one included. His API finish was 6th, so if he had shown up at Sawgrass then I would certainly be looking his way now. It’s just been so inconsistent for Todd even with the Fairways and ARG numbers staying strong. His putter has been showing signs of heating up too, just god awful approach play where he is losing over 2 shots a week with his irons. Hard to back someone struggling with those clubs.
Another guy I mention a lot comes next, Ryo Hisatsune. I thought he fit well at Sawgrass, just barely missed the cut after a bad Friday. I think he could show well again this week, but I don’t know if I can keep chasing him until we see something more encouraging. Fully believe in his game, would play DFS, but unlikely I back outright again until we see at least one or two Top 20 finishes in these weaker fields.
Last guy for this section, Full Swing star Joel Dahmen. Joel’s been playing horribly for months now - if you have not yet seen the Full Swing Season 2 episode on him, it explains a lot of his issues. I think we could be seeing a new Joel now though, the episode did a good job of showing a very emotional realization that something needed to change and it’s coming out in his play. Still some MC’s happening, but an 11th last week where he gained 9 shots ball striking is encouraging. He’s a lotto play at long odds, but likely one worth considering.
Total Fit
Lastly, we combine everything above into our Total Fit Score:
Xander Schauffele tops the model as per usual when he is in the field. Last week was a great example of Xander - good enough to contend all week, then come up just a bit short. I don’t see anyway to feel good backing him as the favorite in the field, data says it’s definitely justified though.
For anyone interested, you can view the entire model in a Google Sheet format here. If you ever run into questions working with the sheet, just let me know - I am hoping some have valued this, as I think it’s one of the things that will make Ziggy Golf unique from a lot of the articles and picks you can find elsewhere online.
How I Came to My Bets
Going to start this week the same I did last week, by betting Keith Mitchell.
Keith flashed on Friday at The PLAYERS, then floundered hard on the weekend. He ended up finishing near last of guys to make the cut, but I did not need him to do much more than that to keep riding the hot hand with him. When we look at the data from Sawgrass, he still gained shots OTT and APP, exactly what we want to see, then lost over 6 shots putting. Not ideal.
If the putter is an issue again this week, this is dead in the water. In two trips to Innisbrook though, he has once gained 8.5 shots and once lost 12 shots - 12 shots putting means he was basically not aiming at all. It’s possible we see that again, but I love seeing the spike week here in his past. It at least means it’s possible for him to get comfy on these greens.
Nothing new from me on this guy, have talked about him 3/4 weeks during The Florida Swing. His approach is better than ever, his driving steady like always, it will come down to how many puts he can make. Pulling some of his best stats show this with data:
Recent OTT: 1st
Recent APP: 9th
Proximity 175+: 5th
Par 5 Scoring: 18th
Non-Florida Comps: 6th
I played Keith Mitchell outright at 45/1 for .40 units, would go down to 40/1. I will also add a finishing position bet on him.
With the first gut-feel play out of the way, I had two more guys longer down the board I was always going to bet this week.
First of the other slam dunk plays is Doug Ghim. Ghim has been playing out of his mind the past handful of events: 5 straight Top 20 finishes, each one seeing shots gained OTT and APP. Putting has always been a bit of an issue for Ghim, but even that is showing gains in 4/5.
History at Innisbrook is mixed, MC in 2021 and a 27th last year. The course does seem to fit his game really well though, evidenced by him finishing 3rd in the Total Fit score. I do have some doubts that he can actually win a PGA event - that happens with a lot of these guys down the board, naturally some of them won’t have what it takes.
When I pull the best stats on Ghim, it’s a really encouraging picture of recent form and longer-term fit:
Recent APP: 2nd
Recent P: 11th
Last 6 Months APP: 12th
Par 5 Scoring: 1st
Fairways: 10th
I understand him winning feels less likely than most of the short-odds guys, but based on form of the past month he should be way shorter than he is. I played Doug Ghim outright at 70/1 for .30 units and will add a finishing position bet. If you have fewer books available, I would play him down to 50/1 if needed.
Next I am going back to a familiar face from years ago Ziggy Golf, Aaron Rai.
Rai is unique on Tour for a couple of reasons. First, he wears two gloves…so there’s that. Second, he uses iron covers on his irons. Not a great start, but stay with me. Few guys have the accuracy tee-2-green that Aaron Rai does, jumping to his best stats right off the bat to best express this:
Fairways: 1st
Good Drives: 1st
Proximity 175+: 11th
Last 6 Months APP: 12th
Recent APP: 12th
With Rai we know we are going to be playing from the fairway and getting as many looks at birdie as anyone. Converting those is where we reach a bit of an issue. He’s just not a great putter, that’s without question the area holding him back (like so many guys on the fringe of being household names). Rai’s never played a Valspar, so we don’t have any of that info to go off of - mainly I think it’s a logical play based on his accuracy. If he can roll some in and get momentum going, there is a path for him to contend.
Last thing on Rai - he’s a European Tour golfer mainly in his career, so while he does not have a PGA win, he does have two wins on the Euro Tour. In 2018 he beat Matt Fitzpatrick by 1 in Hong Kong and in 2020 he beat Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff in Scotland. Those were both a few years ago at this point, but I include who was the runner-up for a reason - Rai’s beat good players before when the fit is right.
I played Aaron Rai outright at 60/1 for .30 units and will add the rare first round leader bet on him. I would not go much lower than 60/1 on him though.
We’ve now used half of our outright budget with the three guys I like best above. Now let’s figure out how to best use the remainder.
With half the budget here, I could add all of it on one of the short favorites in the field. Looking over them though, I have zero interest in Xander at sub-10/1 and really would struggle to back JT or Spieth at 14/1. I’d like to back Sam Burns, but at 11/1, I have zero interest. Should you be doing any pools, I think Burns is the right play - high ceiling, low floor.
Of the next tier down, Sungjae and Cam Young are easy skips for me. The only names shorter than 40/1 I could be intrigued by are Tony Finau and Brian Harman.
The case for Finau is that his ball striking has been out of this world in 2024, just awful putting. The case for Harman is even simpler: he gained 6 shots at Bay Hill and 9 shots at Sawgrass on Approach - that’s as high as anyone not named Scottie can hope for. Between them, I probably lean Harman as the smarter play.
The alternative to Harman is to play a handful of guys in the 60+/1 range, detailing out the ones I like there below before deciding which way to go:
Bezuidenhout - playing incredible golf as of late, only the driver accuracy has me worried; might not be a winner on PGA Tour, yet a very popular pick this week due to his form and strong short game
Mav McNealy - great form for him, still just struggling with the irons; If his putting stays as hot as it’s been, he could play well, but same concerns about being able to win as Bez above
Joel Dahmen - likability for days, starting to show form again; I believe in Joel as a winner, but just would like to see a longer run of steady play before backing him even at long odds
Davis Thompson - southern kid, fairly young on Tour but had a good college career; approach has been the best part of his game and we’re getting a good price on a kid who could win closer to home
Nick Taylor - too expensive for this range, but wanted to note him as someone who fits all the trends and has good form; he can win without a doubt, just wary to pay sub 40/1 prices on him
Parker Coody - the less heralded of the Coody boys has been playing better between them in 2024; approach has been outstanding, but I don’t see him making this big of jump to actually win at this stage
So I have the option to either pick 4-5 of the above OR to play Harman and only one of the above. I like the idea of more exposure across more guys I believe in, but I honestly think Harman has more win equity than any combination of the guys above, so I have to go that route.
I said it above, Brian Harman gained 6 shots on approach at Bay Hill and 9 on approach at Sawgrass. Those numbers are pretty insane, especially when we consider those two courses have very different proximity ranges. I like that he also gained putting in both events and is from the south, so Bermuda feels right at home for him.
I’m not wild about the price, still worth the look while he is playing like this. I played Brian Harman outright at 22/1 for .85 units. I don’t have plans for a finishing position bet with him, just going with the shot at outright on the hot hand.
With Harman added, I can choose one more guy to back, must be a longshot. Going back to my bullets above, I am going to use that budget on Davis Thompson.
Thompson has no wins on Tour, his best finish a 2nd place at the 2023 AMEX. This year has been mixed, couple MC’s and a couple top 30 finishes - nothing that screams you need to bet him now. However, the way he’s been getting there has been all with his irons. Despite the mixed finishes, every single event of 2024 has seen him gain shots on approach.
Now we turn to a course that should fit that part of his game. I mentioned he was young and southern before - Thompson went to Georgia from 2017 to 2021, All American his last two years. In 2021 he was named SEC Player of the Year and won four individual events. Obviously that did not translate to immediate success as a professional, it almost never does, but the pedigree shows this is likely a guy who will be around for awhile. Georgia has been churning out good pro golfers for a decade or more now, Thompson could just be the next in line.
I would not play too much Davis Thompson, definitely worth the shot in DFS and in this case a longshot outright. I played Thompson at 110/1 for the last .15 units in budget.
With my main outrights and bet placed, it’s time to scan for other value plays
I am going to play Top 20 bets on both Sam Burns and Justin Thomas. I don’t want to pay up for their outright prices, but the finishing position plays feel safe with a tough course ahead.
Winning Score -15 or Worse - only the two Burns years eclipsed this number, both of them not windy at all. Weather forecasts are showing a windy one in store, so I think this number is safe to play and available at plus odds.
Tony Finau over Sungjae - I can’t trust Sungjae right now and think Finau has a really good chance this week, easy call here.
Nick Taylor over Adam Hadwin - Hadwin’s had success here in the past, but his form is awful right now. Taylor is going the other way, looking like a sure thing for The President’s Cup, will ride the better form.
Round 1: Davis Thompson over Webb Simpson - guy I like this week vs a guy who is well past his prime. Webb could surprise with his experience, but this is a mismatch to me.
Bets of The Week
I covered my favorite guys this week above, but listing all of my plays below. For anyone who missed it, a post on my unit allocation strategy can be found via this link. You will need to decide what you want to get out of golf betting before you deploy a strategy, but as long as you are doing it responsibly, it’s going to be fun.
Editor’s Notes: Since I wrote that strategy post above, I have decided to stop playing First Round Leader bets. Also, unless otherwise noted, all finishing position bets will pay ties in full (MGM or Bet365).
Outrights
Brian Harman (22/1) - risk .85u to win 18.70u (Bet365)
Keith Mitchell (45/1) - risk .40u to win 18u (Bet365)
Aaron Rai (60/1) - risk .30 to win 18u (Fanduel)
Doug Ghim (70/1) - risk .30u to win 21u (Fanduel)
Davis Thompson (110/1) - risk .15u to win 16.50u (Fanduel)
Top 10
none
Top 20
Sam Burns - risk 1u to win .78u (Bet365)
Justin Thomas - risk 1u to win .88u (MGM)
Top 30
Keith Mitchell - risk 1u to win 1.15u (Bet365)
Doug Ghim - risk 1u to win 1.05u (Bet365)
Make Cut Parlay
Xander, Harman, Ghim - risk 1u to win 1.15u (Draftkings)
Head to Heads
Winning Score -15 or worse (Over 268.5) - risk 1u to win 1.05u (Fanduel)
Finau over Sungjae - risk 1u to win .91u (Draftkings)
Nick Taylor over Adam Hadwin - risk 1u to win .87u (Draftkings)
Round 1: Thompson over Webb - risk 1u to win .91u (Draftkings)
Bet of the Week is Doug Ghim Top 30. The form and fit both line up, I’m not going to overthink it. The winning score bet is also a good one though if you have a Fanduel account.
Closing Thoughts
Golf will be going up against March Madness the next couple weeks, though that’s not as daunting of competitor as it once was. College basketball has gone through a lot of change the past decade and it’s just not the draw it was decades ago. Viewership was down for The PLAYERS last week, surprisingly, so the PGA needs all the help it can get with getting more people watching. Another good finish would help matters for them.
Hopefully we see a really tough course rolled out this week. It’s been a theme of the year that scoring is looking easier than ever - strong dislike from me. We already have equipment advancements contributing to the longshot winners, we don’t also need most courses to amount to putting contests. Innisbrook has delivered in the past, but so have a ton of courses the 2024 PGA Tour is tearing up. A lot of this course set-up comes from players feedback - understandably, they want courses to play easier for the most part. It’s just another way the majors are the best thing in golf.
There is an LPGA event in California this week, perhaps something to have on in the evenings for the diehards. I am going to keep betting Top 10 machine Ayaka Furue to win, also adding HJ Kim, both at 20/1. LPGA is going to be more weekly the next month, would love to hear if readers want more talk on that or not.
Next week we’ll head to Texas for The Houston Open - that’s going to be a really weak field, one of the weakest if I had to guess. The week after will be The Valero, also in Texas. That one will have a lot more names looking to tune up a week before Augusta. We’ll see when the time comes, but I’ve been expecting Beau Hossler to be my bet in Texas since the Fall - if he plays decent this week, it’s a lock for me on Monday.
That will do it! If anyone has questions on anything, let me know. Otherwise, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy