Previewing The Valspar

Wrapping Up The Florida Swing

Valspar Preview

• Course: Innisbrook

• Purse: $8.4 million

We stay in Florida for one more week, but the Valspar is a far cry from The PLAYERS and The API. The field is a bit stronger than The Cognizant a few weeks ago, but it’s going to be a very similar feel. The designated events having purses at $20 million or higher really segments the field across these events.

The Valspar started in 2000 and has had a series of sponsors. The 2000 edition was an ‘opposite-field-event’, which means it was about as low of priority as possible on Tour. It gradually gained more importance as it moved around the schedule. It started in the fall, moved to March, then to April, now back to March. Valspar has been the sponsor since 2014 after five previous sponsors came and went. The only consistent thing about it has been the course - it’s always been played at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course, which we’ll preview in a minute.

With only a few of the upper-tier of golfers appearing every year, past winners have come from all over the board. When you see repeat winners like this, it can make you think that course history will be paramount; however, according to Datagolf, the overall impact of past success is on the lower end of tour courses. We’ll end up looking for some experience, but it won’t be a fulcrum of the model like it often is.

• 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)

• 2022: Sam Burns (-17)

• 2021: Sam Burns (-17)

• 2019: Paul Casey (-8)

• 2018: Paul Casey (-10)

• 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)

Odds on the guys above were mostly in the 20-40/1 range with Hadwin being 125/1 the year he won. I’ll likely end up aiming for a card with a few from the mid-range odds, but going to stay very open minded to what the data tells us. As we’ve had with the other Florida events, there are some winner’s trends to guide us a bit in narrowing the card:

• 10/13 had a prior win on Tour

• 10/13 had played in 2 or more Valspars

• 11/13 had a top 10 in the year leading up to win

• 11/13 had finished top 45 in start before Valspar

Nothing too unique, but we see that current form has played a factor. We’ll ideally find guys with decent odds who have a past win as well.

Innisbrook Preview (Copperhead)

Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club is home to four different courses, all designed by Larry Packard. It’s located outside of Tampa, not far from the Gulf of Mexico. Copperhead was built in 1974 and will host all four rounds this week. Since opening, there have been a couple restorations, but it’s largely been to rework greens; the majority of the course remains as the initial design laid it out. As a resort, anyone reading this can play the course. It’s not cheap, but also way more fairly priced than Sawgrass is.

Just like the other courses in the Florida Swing, Innisbrook plays tougher than the average Tour stop. The challenge of this month is one of the reasons I like this part of the schedule - not always the best events for betting, but some of the most volatile leaderboards of the year happen during this time. While we are still in Florida and have a tough test, the course will look a lot different than what we’ve been seeing.

Innisbrook does not have the constant threat of water we saw at Sawgrass and Bay Hill. Rather, there are only 6 holes with some water. Players have described it as feeling more like a Carolina course - think tree-lined holes with elevation changes.

The length does not seem overly far at first glance, 7340 yards. However, when you factor in that it’s a par 71, it gets a bit longer. The average driving distance is actually very low though, the third shortest average on Tour (only shorter ones are Pebble Beach and Harbour Town). When we see a long course with low driving distance, it’s usually due to forced lay-ups with water or doglegs - the latter is the explanation at Innisbrook, 12 holes feature doglegs. Interesting note on the par 71: there are five par 3’s and four par 5’s, a kind of unique set-up.

Fairways are some of the narrowest we’ve seen this year - this has led to a 15% lower driving accuracy rate than average. With the rough being on the thicker side, accuracy off the tee is going to end up being integral. Guys will be pulling less-than-driver more often, so distance is really not going to matter as much - expect to see accuracy win out in any models.

After the short narrow tee shots, players will be left with longer approach shots. We see a pretty big uptick in proximity ranges 175 yards and longer, something I’ll include this week. The GIR% is a touch lower than tour average, related to the rough and length of approach. Guys need to stay accurate off the tee to set up the 2nd shot, but the winner will likely be someone who controls their approach stats best.

Past event data says that the around the green shots guys will encounter are on the easier side. GIR% is low, but scrambling success is high. We should still target guys with good ARG stats as well as bogey avoidance.

Scrambling success is high due in part to the greens being pretty straightforward. There is a bit of sloping, but putting stats show an easier than average test. One-putt percentage is one of the highest on tour at 42%, three-putt percentage among the lowest at 2%. The surface is Bermuda, of course. Just like Sawgrass though, it’s not the same as most of our Bermuda courses since it’s only March. I’m going to include overall putting stats rather than any specialty surface this week with that in mind. Sam Burns is a Bermuda guy, but Paul Casey is definitely not - I’m OK backing an inconsistent putter if the odds are right.

The par 3’s are all 195 yards or longer, another point in favor of the long proximity range. Across the five of them, they play at an average score of 3.13 shots per hole. The par 5’s are the best birdie chances as usual, but even they average 4.77 shots per hole. Copperhead boasts one of the lowest eagle percentages of any course, none of the par 5’s really being reachable in two.

As always, let’s summarize what we know about the course and event history to think about who we want to target this week.

We want this player to be on the accurate half of the field off the tee with no concern on his distance. We’ll value approach stats the most, but also want a decent around the green player since everyone will need to scramble a bit with the low GIR%. A boring four rounds can win this thing - birdie the par 5’s, exhibit patience and grind out par everywhere else. I won’t be rigid in following our trends, but I will want guys who meet at least two of them.

The Snake Pit

We started the Florida Swing with “The Bear Trap” and we’ll end it with “The Snake Pit”. Holes 16, 17, and 18 are greeted with that pretty cool statue you see above and play as the hardest stretch of the course. As finishing holes, it sets up the chances for a blown lead down the stretch. Without Scheffler in the field, that might actually be possible.

The 16th is the hardest scoring hole at Innisbrook. Just about 30% of guys will bogey this each round, 6% of them being doubles or worse. It’s a narrow fairway on an angle - guys will often miss left in fear of the water. This leaves a 200+ yard approach shot into an elevated green.

The 17th is a 215 yard par 3 into a small green. Trees on the left side will hover close to your line off the tee. Playing it safely into the middle of the green for a two-putt is the wise play, as the bunkers present a tough save as the biggest danger on the hole.

The closing 18th hole is an uphill par 4 with yet another narrow fairway to find. Approach shots fall around 175 yards in to the most sloping green on the course. Bogeys happen more than twice as much as birdies on each of these holes.

Early Leans

Keith Mitchell had a rough weekend at The PLAYERS, but he’ll be the first name I check. The ball striking was still positive at Sawgrass, the putting atrocious. If we see him longer than 40/1, he’ll be my first play.

After Keith, I don’t really have anyone firmly in mind. Sam Burns is playing great golf and has won here twice, the pricing will be offensively short though, so I’ll likely be passing. Likely I skip all of the short odd stars in the field (Spieth, JT, Xander, Burns) but will take a look at where Finau opens on the board.

How to Watch

We have a lot of streaming opportunities now, but I still want to know the TV schedule (all times EST).

• Thursday: 2:00-6:00pm, Golf Channel

• Friday: 2:00-6:00pm, Golf Channel

• Saturday: 1:00-3:00pm, Golf Channel; 3:00-6:00, NBC

• Sunday: 1:00-3:00pm, Golf Channel; 3:00-6:00, NBC

Closing Thoughts

The PLAYERS really lived up to anything we could have hoped for. We had big names all with a chance down the stretch, ultimately the best golfer in the world became the first to ever win the event back-to-back. Scheffler dealt with a nagging neck injury during the week and still won - speaks to how good he is right now.

The Valspar is a far cry from The PLAYERS, but hopefully we see another good finish. The Florida Swing has always been a fun part of the season for me and 2024 has followed the trend. Exciting to see all the darkhorse winners of the early year, it’s just better for golf to have the name recognition across the leaderboard we’ve had the past month.

I’ll be back on Wednesday with the usual post of data and bets. Good week last week, will hope to keep that run going with or without an actual outright winner. With few guys jumping to front of mind, I’ll likely let the data and trends guide decision making a bit more than last week.

Until then, best of luck with all your bets.

Matt / Ziggy