Golf Betting Strategies

Unit allocation and bankroll management...the fun stuff

I am hoping to have some occasional ‘evergreen’ posts, usually on Fridays. In theory, these will be less topical and more educational.

Betting Golf vs Betting Other Sports

I have been betting on sports since before I could drive, vote, or drink (like a boss). I know a lot of you loyal readers are like me in this way. Guessing many of you have also learned a lot about gambling through this trial and error process, hopefully having more wins and fewer losses the more you play.

Most of our experience with sports betting early on comes from football. I could see some basketball, maybe a little hockey or baseball depending on your taste. Broadly, these are all “binary markets” with even juice on both sides. This is your standard spread bet, like Browns -4.5 vs Steelers +4.5. In these plays, you are betting on something that has only two possible outcomes, priced to show even juice on both sides.

If ‘juice’ is a new term for you, it is often called a ‘vig’ as well. It’s the amount a sportsbook keeps on a win. If you use American odds, this would be represented as -110 (1.91 in European odds, which I strongly suggest you adopt if you want to work with tracking and data). In a football game, both sides of the spread will be evenly ‘juiced’, so both Browns -4.5 and Steelers +4.5 are set at -110/1.91. If you bet 1 unit and win, you would win .91 units. This is how sportsbooks make money, it’s not just from people making bad bets.

When we look at golf betting options, we see a vastly different playing field. Many of our markets are not binary at all; we are betting one person to win out of a 150 man field, so there are 150 different results in that market. Even the options that are binary, like head-to-head bets, are rarely going to have even juice on both sides. This shift to uneven odds can represent a risk for those who are treating golf betting the same as other sports betting.

Unit Allocation

There are a number of markets we can bet on in golf, so you will need to decide what you want to get out of your golf betting experience before you deploy your strategy. For me, I want the excitement of a big payout, but I am more focused on sustainable profit than any one large win. Hence you’ll see that I have more of my unit allocation dedicated to head-to-head bets. For those that want the flashier excitement, putting more exposure in outright markets could be for you.

Below I am going to briefly describe the different betting markets I consider, getting into details of how much of my total risk I dedicate to each market on a week-to-week basis:

Outright

The most exciting one with the biggest payouts, this market is attempting to pick the winner. You’ll see this market touted BY FAR the most on Twitter or other sources, partly because it allows someone to show how smart they are when they hit a winner…they just never tell you how many losers came first.

Each week, I will risk a total of 2 units on Outrights. If any of them win, I win 20 units, making a slightly less than 10/1 ratio. This means I need to hit a winner in 1 out of every 9 events to be profitable in this market.

When you adopt a standard ratio or strategy here, you start looking at everyone’s odds in greater detail. If I bet Rory at 10/1, I can’t afford to have any other outright bets in my budget that week. I can say with confidence, I will almost never bet on someone to win a golf tournament at less than 18/1. Most weeks, I end up wanting a couple guys in the 20-40/1 range, maybe a couple in the 50-60/1 range, and often a 100/1 longshot to fill out the card with remaining budget. The most important thing in this market over time is to stay consistent - if you believe in your data, this consistency will lead to more sustainability in your betting.

First Round Leader (FRL)

This market is purely for fun, I do not see it as a consistent profit generator. Like outrights, we are betting for one guy to be the leader of the pack. Most sites will honor ‘dead-heat’ rules here, which just means in event of tie, each guy’s payout is divided by the number of people that tie.

I bet 0.5 units on this market each week, really just for something to keep an eye on during work on Thursday. A full payout would yield 4 units should any of my bets win as sole leader at end of round 1. If you work with me and are reading this, consider joining me.

I suggest playing this one with only smaller stakes. If I increase my unit exposure in the future, this market will likely get left behind.

Top 10 / Top 20 / Top 40

This is a great market to get into if you are dipping your toes into golf betting, definitely the best place to start if you want very low unit exposure. We are simply betting on guys to finish in the top X for the full event.

We mentioned ‘dead heat’ in the FRL market - this one might do that as well if people tie for 10th. The smartest thing you can do to profit in this market is going to involve asking your sportsbook a question: “Do ties pay in full?”. The answer needs to be ‘Yes’. Some books will pay ties in full, others will honor dead-heat rules. Normally this is not made clear on the betting screen, so some asking must be done. The difference between honoring ties and dead-heat could definitely be the difference between profit and loss.

From a unit exposure point of view, my rules on this one are a bit less strict. That being said, I will never risk more than 2 units in any given market here (could be 2 in each though). I suggest picking bets that lead to you only needing one to hit in order to profit. For example, if you bet 1 unit each on two guys you like, both at plus odds, the only way you lose is if you miss on both. Hit on both, and we are looking at a pretty nice payout.

One last note: if you are not using offshore sportsbooks, it’s unlikely you get the Top 40 market. When betting becomes legal in my state, this will be a market we focus on - picking someone to finish in the top 40 is far easier than the others, and we can leverage some of the lessor known players we know.

Head-to-Head

My favorite market of all, this is a bet where you pick one guy to finish higher than another guy. You will not hit huge payouts here, but with a good strategy you’ll be able to profit long-term.

Each week when we make a model, this is actually the market I use it for most. I want to identify guys who are over and under-valued in the market. When I’ve completed the ‘total fit’ scores, I start at the top and write down guys I see as undervalued. Scheffler and Rory will not make this list even if they are top of model, as their odds are already reflecting that, so they are not really undervalued. After finding my ‘likes’, I do the inverse from the bottom to find my ‘fades’, leaving me with two lists. Next, I want to scan my sportsbooks and see if I can find anyone I like matched up with anyone I want to fade. As simple as this sounds, it has been my steadiest market of all.

For unit exposure, I flat bet 1 unit on each of these, very occasionally risking 2 units. You are going to find some of the plays you like are very juiced - its a decision point on a case-by-case basis, but I would not shy away from betting something as low as -150 if you really like the match-up.

Single Round Head-to-Head

Roughly the same as above, but the match-up is for a single round. I do prefer full tournament more, as it reduces variance to have more rounds involved, but you’ll find more appealing match-ups in the daily market. The same ‘likes’ and ‘fades’ list above will be used here, but I will always reference in-tourney stats for daily wagers.

In-tourney stats are the same stat options we have referenced in the model, but it shows performance for each day of the current event. When you see someone is gaining strokes off the tee and on approach, but losing them in their short game, an opportunity could present itself. Over the span of even a four day event, players will regress to their mean more often than not.

I flat bet 1 unit per match-up on these, just like full tournament, but limit myself to no more than 3 plays per round. It could be 1 or even 0, but it will not exceed 3. The reason for this limit is to keep a firm grip on your risk. We will be wrong sometimes, and weather can always surprise your handicapping - limiting your exposure is a smart way to play the long-game.

Make/Miss Cut

This is a rarely played market for me. However, if there is someone you really want to fade and cannot find a good head-to-head to do it with, then this is a good option. I normally would say look for close to even odds, and risk a full unit if you do play them. More often than not, its an injury that creates the best opportunities for this one in my opinion.

I play this infrequently enough that I simply track them as head-to-head bets.

Top Finisher per Region

Another lessor played market, this will be where you are picking the top finisher for a region or country. The same ‘dead-heat’ rules apply if it ends up being a tie for best finisher. I track these as head-to-head bets as well.

My favorite plays in this market will be the smaller groups listed, specifically top Japanese finisher. This is only offered in majors, where there will be 5 or more eligible. Believe it or not, Hideki was near even odds in this market in each major last year…and won all of them. Proof that we can find value here, and its worth a scan most weeks.

Bankroll Management

Now that we are out of the “binary market” mindset, we need to think about how to size our units in golf betting. For anyone unfamiliar with the concept of a “unit”, its really just your standard bet size. I can’t recommend enough to set a standard unit size and stick with it - do not bet more the week after a nice win.

Going back to my strategy, I have summarized below the average units I have staked each week by market:

• Outrights: 2

• Top 10: 1.5

• Top 20: 2

• FRL: 0.5

• Head-to-Head: 6

• Daily H2H: 8

That comes to 20 units. If you are adopting a similar strategy, consider how much you would be comfortable losing in a given week (obviously an amount that does not impact your life). Take that number, divide it by 20, you have your unit size. Keep in mind that we’ll have golf to bet on 40 or more weeks per year too.

This might end up being smaller than your unit size for football or basketball, but it comes from the greater volume of plays. It’s really unlikely you ever lose all of your bets if you do some homework and diversify your markets, but its smart to plan accordingly just in case. We want to be in this for the long haul, never chase your losses - take what you can learn and move on with the strategy you have in place.

Closing Thoughts

My strategy may or may not match what you are looking to get out of your golf betting. However, I encourage you to consider adding at least another couple markets to whatever your preference has been in the past. If you are tracking your performance by bet type, it won’t take long to find what works for you. Knowing your own strengths can be just as profitable as knowing which players fit the course best.

Day 1 of The President’s Cup is playing out like the landslide it seemed to be, but maybe the International Team can at least make it a competitive day 2 tomorrow. Either way, we’ll be back Monday to preview the Sanderson Farms in Jackson, Mississippi.

Best of luck with all your bets!

Matt / Ziggy

Thank you for taking the time to read this far, I appreciate it. If you know anyone else who likes pro golf and/or betting, please forward this to them and encourage them to sign up.