We previewed the course on Monday, so we know what to look for. Now we can pull our data and identify the best guys to consider this week.
Order of Email:
Model Details and Results
Player Profiles
My Own Personal Plays
Email is a bit long, I would suggest opening in browser for best viewing (button above the title on top right of your email). For anyone who wants quick access to the downloadable model, it can be found here as well as within the post below.
ALSO…I strongly suggest downloading The Masters app. It’s without question the best app I have ever used. If you’re going to pay attention to the event at all, it’s great to have. Even when watching on TV, the app will have every single shot from every player, so it’s a nice compliment. I wish we could have something like this every week, make the most of it when we can.
Statistical Model Theory
For any new readers, I use the same thinking each week when we crunch the numbers - the majority of this post will be details on how I form the models, then we’ll talk over the results of each as we go. An old post explaining these stats can be found here.
Going back to my usual strategy of making 4 types of model, I am using the following weights this week:
25% Form Fit - We are always going to want to factor in ‘Current Form’ in some way; this category will usually look at the last 24 rounds over the last 3 months
30% Course Fit - This category factors in course history, comparable course history, as well as other characteristics of the course
25% Skill Fit - Similar to Course Fit, this category looks more at the skillset required to compete; could also call this category ‘Scoring Fit’
20% Safety Fit - This category is used to reward safer plays in our overall model score; heavily used in majors
Course Fit is the top category this week, but it’s about as even of distribution as I’ll ever use too. We want to find the guys with as few holes in their game as possible, both in terms of recent form and historical.
Augusta National ‘Fit’ Models
Now we’re going to look at what was included in each category of our overall model:
Form Fit
Form is going to matter more than usual this week. We’re also breaking down the areas that matter more evenly - Augusta is a true test of all facets, we can’t ignore any one area when seeing who has been playing the best over the last 12 rounds. LIV stats are somewhere between non-existent and pointless, so I cannot include those for Form, Skill, or Safety Fits as much as I’d like to.
Scottie Scheffler is the shortest priced golfer to win a major since prime Tiger. He’s deserving of those odds as well, there is no case to be made for anyone but him being the favorite. Looking over his last 12 rounds, we saw dominance at Bay Hill, grinding it out at Sawgrass, then a near three-peat runner up in Houston. His recent putting has been better than any window of his career so far, ball striking as elite as he has been the past 18 months. I cannot bet him outright at these odds, I just won’t do it, but you have to consider him for any office pools or other side games you could be in. Sure, game theory says to fade the guy everyone else is on - can’t do it with Scottie. My only fear for this week is that Scheffler leads by so much on Sunday that it’s not exciting.
If it were not for Scottie, we could be writing that above paragraph on Wyndham Clark. Runner up to Scheffler at Bay Hill and Sawgrass, then a 31st in Houston. He also has the game to play a course like this, distance for days and a steady putter. My concern is that this will be his first trip to Augusta. The fact that a guy who has won 3 big events in the past year is making his first trip says a lot about how much Clark has developed. I like the skillset and the form, doubt I can get over the lack of experience on these greens though.
Hideki Matsuyama kept his good run going last week with a 7th at The Valero. Over his last 4 events, he has now gone 1st at Riviera, 12th ay Bay Hill, 6th at Sawgrass, 7th at TPC San Antonio. He of course is a past Masters champion, so we know the course can suit his game perfectly. He has been putting about field average through this good run, it’s the ball striking that has climbed back to elite levels. I don’t think I see him as a guy who will win multiple Masters, the form is pushing me to consider him though. At worst, he should be a solid finishing position bet.
Course Fit
This is by far the most that course history will ever matter. With that, a whopping 50% of the weight will go to Augusta history, then Course Fit is also our top category. After that, we’ll look at difficult scoring courses, long Par 4 scoring, and short game on firm and fast greens.
Multiple time Masters champion Jordan Spieth takes the top spot here, due almost solely to his history at Augusta. I cannot trust his form right now, even after a 10th in Texas. Two MC’s before that make his game pretty questionable to me. Now, Spieth has come in with bad form before and managed a good finish, so I am not saying you should fade him in any capacity - more it’s just that I don’t think his outright pricing are factoring in his form enough, it’s driven by his good history. Between him and Hideki, I think Spieth might have a better chance to win, but Deki is a safer finishing position bet.
Rory McIlroy will be looking once again to complete the career grand slam by getting the elusive Masters win. I think he has put too much pressure on himself over the years and think the exact same will be at play this year. He’s no doubt a Hall of Famer and an all-time great, but I have a hard time seeing his win coming during a season where he has been honestly just OK. His finishes have been improving, so maybe the form is just landing at the right time, but his 3rd place last week was his first Top 10 in months - actually the longest he had gone without a top 10 since 2010. I’d love to see Rory get the monkey off his back, but I don’t see it happening this week.
Defending champion Jon Rahm will have a busy week with interviews and hosting a champions dinner. He has just not been playing as well as we all would have expected when he joined LIV. Zero wins and nothing but mid-to-high finishes. From the limited LIV I have watched, Rahm looks frustrated. He doesn’t like the music, he misses the PGA events he has dominated through the years - basically, he does not look like the same guy. He is of course still elite, but I am not interested in betting on a back-to-back winner without some incredible form. I don’t think Rahm will struggle a lot, but I do think a finish outside the top 10 is more likely than a win.
Skill Fit
This one is looking fairly usual compared to most long course modeling. Distance matters, long range approach matters most as usual, and Bent putting will be needed to actually win. That putting score is the only reason you don’t see Scottie in this chart.
Xander Schauffele takes the top spot in Skill Fit. He’s a long hitter who gains consistently on approach and putting, nothing surprising to see him top this one. What I like the most though is that he is actually top in the field on approach play over 200 yards out, something that will happen plenty this week. The other numbers are all top 20% of the field, but this highlights why tougher courses suit him so well and why he has so many Top 20 finishes in majors. Of course he fit all of the trends from yesterday as well.
For distance and approach skills, Tony Finau looks just as good as Xander in those categories. The issue for Tony all year has been an ice-cold putter. I’d say he’s likely in the biggest putting slump of his career, which makes it harder for me to trust him on a course with the most 3-putts of them all. He’s had decent finishes at Augusta, but finished outside the top 20 in each of the last two years. Trending downward at this course and struggling to see the ball go in the hole are not descriptions of someone I want to back.
Last guy for this section is Sam Burns. I backed Burns a few times earlier this year, mostly to disappointment. The guy has distance more than accuracy and is one of the best putters on Tour, he should be set up well at Augusta. However, in two trips he has logged a MC and a 29th. Add to that, his form has really cooled down since four straight top 10’s on the West Coast Swing. He surprisingly struggled in Florida, his normal stomping grounds, and comes in with more question marks. I would definitely skip betting him, might look for fade opportunities.
Safety Fit
This one will include some familiar stats and a new one. ARG and 3 Putt Avoidance go in due to the test of the Augusta green complexes. Par 5 scoring is always important (example, Hideki won by scoring well on Par 5’s, he was over par on all other holes). Then the new one is performance in any majors the past two years. I like this stat because it’s rare for someone to just show up and pop at Augusta without some form of success on other enormous stages.
You can make a case for Si Woo Kim being a huge value play this week. He has played in 9 events in 2024; he gained OTT in 9/9, gained APP in 8/9, and gained ARG in 8/9. Trouble is he has only gained putting in 2/9. He’s always been a somewhat poor putter, so this is about career-level for him. The ball striking is where he has shined though. I admit I do not see Si Woo Kim donning the green jacket, but in a DFS format or any pool where you have tiers, I would strongly suggest Si Woo. I think the driving and iron play gives him a very high floor.
I had hoped to bet Min Woo Lee to win the 2024 Masters. He has the distance and ARG prowess to contend at this course. He was 14th in 2022, his debut year, so it felt like the skills and course were aligned so well. Then he MC’d in 2023. As he won an Aussie major in December, I thought I would come back to him. Then the 2024 season got underway and we just never really saw consistent play from him. He does work on Par 5’s, evidence above in the chart, but I have too many other question marks. I will like him at Augusta in the future I’m sure, but would look elsewhere this year.
Total Fit
Finally, we combine all of these together with the weights from the top section:
Xander edges out Scottie for the top spot in the Total Fit. It was kind of always going to be one of those two taking this one. Scheffler is obviously better overall but Xander always models well. After them comes Wyndham and Hideki, the other two PGA Tour members with the best 2024 so far.
For anyone interested, you can view the entire model in a Google Sheet format here. If you ever run into questions working with the sheet, just let me know - I am hoping some have valued this, as I think it’s one of the things that will make Ziggy Golf unique from a lot of the articles and picks you can find elsewhere online.
How I Came to My Bets
Disclaimer: I have used almost all my free plays from sportsbooks on Masters futures. That does not impact the bets I am suggesting in this article, but if you have placed some of these as well and they are on the same guys, I would diversify before I put more behind any one golfer.
I’ve made clear by now that I am not going to back Scottie Scheffler outright at this price. I will bet him to finish Top 5, but that will be the extent of Scheffler exposure. Having him removed from the decision making process allows us to move forward to the rest of the board.
From a strategy point of view, I would like to have either 2 plays shorter than 25/1 or 3 plays where we have at least 2 of them a bit further down the board.
Starting with the top, I have no interest in Rahm or Rory right now. Both have had questionable form and carry other intangibles that scare me off - Rory pressure to finally win another major, Rahm pressure to show he’s still the same guy after joining LIV. Of course either could win based on talent, but I have no problem skipping right over them.
The next tier of options shows Xander, Koepka, and Spieth. I won’t overpay for Spieth despite his history, would be genuinely shocked if he won right now. Koepka would for sure be a bet if we had seen something better than a bottom ten showing last week at LIV Miami. I may still come back to Brooks.
That leaves Xander. He almost never wins, has never won a major, and is extremely popular this week - what could go wrong?
I will be joining the party and betting Xander outright as well as a finishing position bet. I have been vocal about him being kind of a loser, but as I said yesterday in the trends post, everyone is a loser until they’re not. The form is just so good across 2024:
Sentry: 10th
AMEX: 3rd
Farmers: 9th
Pebble: 54th
Genesis: 4th
Arnold Palmer: 25th
PLAYERS: 2nd
Valspar: 5th
Pebble does not jump out as a course he should thrive on, so really only the API has a result that raises any concern - even then it was a 25th and not something worse. I understand if those tournaments above do not impress you that much, even though some of them should - so let’s look at how he has done in the majors the past 2 years:
2022 Masters: MC
2022 PGA: 13th
2022 US Open: 14th
2022 Open: 15th
2023 Masters: 10th
2023 PGA: 18th
2023 US Open: 10th
2023 Open: 17th
Seven straight majors have seen a top 20 finish - that’s insanely consistent and often the type of play we see leading up to someone winning a major. Before 2022, he played in four additional Masters, logging finishes of 50th, 2nd, 17th, 3rd. All of this is shaping up to him making a ton of sense to breakthrough for the biggest win of his career.
With our most expensive outright now placed, it’s time to figure out how to use our other unit in the outright market.
Let’s talk about the LIV guys. I am not forcing a bet on a LIV player, but there are enough that warrant consideration:
Rahm - obviously a good golfer, but the form is not great. For his price, I am happy to skip him, I can’t imagine he goes back-to-back right now.
Koepka - likely the best pick of LIV guys, just wish he had played better last week. I am not betting him outright, but will say he was the last guy I cut from my selections. For one-and-done style pools, he is the obvious play.
DJ - he is still talented and all, but I think there are better options for his price.
Bryson - he is not as fit for Augusta as he should be, his distance and putting should make him a contender. However, he’s never really been in the mix here and I expect more of the same from him.
Patty Reed - it would take a hurricane during play for him to have a chance to win again, I don’t see it.
Cam Smith - I love the guy, but his form might be the worst of anyone from LIV who is eligible for this field.
Phil - I think he makes the cut, but that’s best he’ll do this year.
I left one name out obviously, the guy I am backing - Joaquin Niemann.
We’ll start with his history at Augusta - 40th in 2021, 35th in 2022, 16th in 2023. Improving with each trip is not required to get behind someone but it doesn’t hurt to see. The reason I’m backing him is more related to his play the past 4 months though. Of all the LIV guys, Niemann appears to be putting in the most work. He played in a number of events in Asia and Australia during the Fall with hopes of enough good showings earning him an invite to majors. It worked - he’s obviously playing this week and will be in the PGA Championship as well.
I understand if you don’t respect LIV results as much as PGA results - it’s a lower volume of competition and their bottom half of guys are way worse than the 200th best on the PGA Tour. Still, in five events he has won twice and finished 4th, 11th, and 33rd in his other three. Back in the Fall he played in the two major events in Australia alongside every good Australian and Euro Tour guy - he finished 5th in their PGA Championship and won their Australian Open. All of this points to it being a long run of solid play from Joaquin.
To me it’s really only Brooks and Niemann that should be considered from LIV. I’m higher on Niemann due to the form and believing in his game for a long time. He’s only 25 right now and won multiple times on PGA before leaving - most notably a wire-to-wire victory at the Genesis, a serious course and field. No course compares to Augusta, but if I had to pick comparable courses, Riviera (host of The Genesis) is on the short list.
I bet Niemann outright at 28/1 and will add a finishing position bet.
We have room for one more outright bet in the 35-45/1 range. I’d like to find a guy who has won serious events in the past more than a first time major winner like my previous two selections.
There were a few guys I had in mind for this last spot:
Cam Young - his game fits the course and he’s played so well in majors through two years. Last year he came in 7th here. I just don’t see the guy winning his first pro event at Augusta. I will go finishing position though.
Sahith - I believe he will win at Augusta someday, just not yet. He’s making his 2nd trip here after a top 10 in his debut. He’s even better now than he was a year ago, so this is possible - pencil him in for 2025 Masters and a 2024 Top 20.
Zalatoris - another guy with the game for major venues. He has not been bad in his last few events, but he also has not been good enough to get excited about even at 40/1. It would be a value play, which I can respect, pass from me though.
Wyndham Clark - I think he might have the best chance of any debutant in the past decade. Seriously, how is this is first Masters? Can’t back him with that in mind.
Hovland - purely a value play thinking, he’s almost 40/1 and seemed like one of the top 4 best golfers in the world 6 months ago. I’m scared off by the ARG struggles coming back after he changed coaches.
Hideki - I wish I could afford him, but it came down to just him or Niemann+one more, so I went with the latter. But, I will bet him in a finishing position play.
All of the above had reasons to like them - I am going to go a bit more under the radar though and pick Matt Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick won the 2022 US Open, so we know he can pull a big win. Before that, he had won nearly every big event of the Euro Tour as well, it’s kind of a quietly prolific career he has started to put together. If past success was all I needed to get excited, Spieth would have been considered - with Fitz, we have seen glimpses of his prime form the last two events to go along with his strong history at tough events.
Fitzy finished 10 at the Valero and 5th at The PLAYERS before that. There was a weird story of a weight being left in his driver, discovered before Sawgrass and removed. I don’t fully buy into those kind of ‘after the fact’ stories - it was right when his game turned around though, so maybe.
His final round in San Antonio last week saw him gain over 2 shots on approach and 1.5 putting - so he’s coming in feeling confident. There has been a bit of talk about weather perhaps being an issue some of the days this week - nothing major, but if wind did pick up then I like this play even more. I’ve been betting Fitzpatrick to finish well in low scoring events for years, it’s one of the best bets in golf in my opinion.
Lastly, his history at Augusta, covering only the last 4 in order: 46th, 34th, 14th, 10th. Same as Niemann, we are seeing someone improving as they get more experience with the course. Matt has also improved in the past few years, notably added distance two years ago before his US Open win. He’s not going to be as talked about as many of the names you’ve read in this email, hence we are getting good odds.
I bet Fitzpatrick outright at 40/1 and added a finishing position bet.
Lastly, let’s scan the board for other plays.
DJ over JT - mostly a fade of JT, who oddly split with his caddy right before Augusta.
Adam Scott over Rickie Fowler - Scott has played great this year and Rickie has been fade material all year.
Harris English over Tom Kim - I hope Tom gets right soon but he’s clearly dealing with something. English is good, but this is another driven by fading a guy out of form.
Big Make Cut Parlay - detailed below
First Round Leader: Rory, Koepka, Spieth - of the last 5 Masters, Spieth or Koepka have held FRL 3 times. Rory has been FRL often in the past year as well, just a sprinkle.
Bets of The Week
I covered my favorite guys this week above, but listing all of my plays below. For anyone who missed it, a post on my unit allocation strategy can be found via this link. You will need to decide what you want to get out of golf betting before you deploy a strategy, but as long as you are doing it responsibly, it’s going to be fun.
Editor’s Notes: Since I wrote that strategy post above, I have decided to stop playing First Round Leader bets. Also, unless otherwise noted, all finishing position bets will pay ties in full.
Outrights
Xander Schauffele (16/1) - risk 1u to win 16u (Draftkings)
Joaquin Niemann (28/1) - risk .60u to win 16.80u (Draftkings)
Matt Fitzpatrick (40/1) - risk .40u to win 16u (Fanduel)
Top 10
Scottie Scheffler (Top 5) - risk 1u to win .95u (Draftkings)
Xander Schauffele - risk 1u to win 1.60u (Draftkings)
Hideki Matsuyama - risk 1u to win 1.90u (Draftkings)
Top 20
Joaquin Niemann - risk 1u to win .83u (Draftkings)
Matt Fitzpatrick - risk 1u to win 1u (Draftkings)
Sahith Theegala - risk 1u to win 1.45u (Draftkings)
Cam Young - risk 1u to win 1.50u (Draftkings)
Top 40
none
Make Cut Parlay
Scottie, Rory, Xander, Hideki, Koepka, Niemann, Fitz, Lowry, Zal, Sahith, Young, Si Woo, Conners - risk 1u to win 12u (Bet365)
Head to Heads
DJ over JT - risk 1u to win .87u (ESPN)
Scott over Fowler - risk 1u to win .83u (Bet365)
English over Tom Kim - risk 1u to win .83u (Draftkings)
Bet of the Week is going to be Scottie Top 5. He’s too good, the timing is right, I just can’t picture him not contending down the stretch.
Closing Thoughts
Thank you all for reading The Masters previews this week, it was a labor of love. Hopefully we get a more competitive finish than the past two years where Scottie and Rahm both had a comfortable lead by the last few holes. Of course I’d like one of our bets to win, but this week more than any other I mainly want a fun tournament and exciting finish.
If you’re someone who works at a desk Thursdays and Fridays, take advantage of having this on whenever you can during your days - it’s the cooler version of March Madness to me. Thursday weather is looking spotty, so we might have a shortened round that day with more on Friday. As long as the weekend goes off on schedule, it’s all good.
Anyone with questions on bets or pools can reply to the email or leave a comment - happy to weigh in on anything. We’ll be back next week for The RBC Heritage, which will feel like a small event compared. Until then, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy