The Masters
Masters Preview
Course: Augusta National
Purse: $20 million
Cue the music, call Jim Nantz, get your weekend snacks ready - it’s Masters Week.
The Masters is not the oldest event or the biggest payday - with the newly created ‘designated events’ it’s not even in the top ten paydays of the year. However, there is no debate that it remains the most prestigious event in all of golf. Winning at Augusta turns someone from a ‘famous golfer’ into a ‘famous person’. It was the kick-start that began Tiger-mania for his legendary career. If I asked you to think of Tiger Woods winning an event, or Jack Nicklas winning an event for the older readers, I bet most of you are picturing a win here. Lots of events are important, but not like this one.
The event goes back to 1934, making this the 90th playing of the event. Since it began, the course has typically sorted the field for the best of the best to be contending. I have a ton of detail on the course itself and it’s history in our next section, so I won’t go on and on now about Augusta National.
This is a much smaller field than we see most weeks - only 89 guys will be in the field. The cut is also more aggressive - instead of the top 70 with ties, we’ll only see the top 50 with ties advance to the weekend. There will be a lot of opportunity for Top 40 Parlays I hope, as we can somewhat safely project who will be playing Saturday and Sunday.
Of that 89, all past winners are invited. Nick Faldo and Jack Nicklaus are not trotting out there simply from being invited, but we will see some ‘golden years’ competitors. Great for them to be back out there and who doesn’t like seeing Fred Couples, but they have no real chance of winning. Same for the amateurs in the field - such an honor to be included as one of them, but literally zero chance of contending. Both ends of the spectrum of experience we can safely assume do not make a run, most of them will miss the cut. This makes our finishing position bets a bit safer in my mind.
The list of past winners shows all names you know - no one wins The Masters and remains unknown though to be fair.
2023: Jon Rahm
2022: Scottie Scheffler
2021: Hideki Matsuyama
2020: Dustin Johnson
2019: Tiger Woods
I try to list out trends around the winner every week of the season - they actually end up being true most of the time, even though I know trends are shaky on how much credence we should give them. For this week, there are soooo many of them that I decided to dedicate an entire post to a process of elimination. That post will come out tomorrow morning, usual time of 9:30am EST.
The Green Jacket
When someone wins The Masters, they put on their fancy new green jacket - an amazing conversation piece, or flex, if not obviously cool. So are guys just wearing these jackets around the rest of their lives or what? They are not!
After winning, you take the jacket home for one year, but must return it at the following year's event. It’s then stored with the other jackets, and the only way it leaves the property again is if the owner of said jacket wins again. Repeat winners putting on the jacket are then putting on the exact same jacket they wore with their previous wins.
Every winner of The Masters and member of Augusta National has worn a green jacket since the tradition began in 1937. The original purpose of introducing the bright jacket as the club member's uniform is kind of hilarious: wearing one was meant to 'identify club members as reliable sources of information, and to let staff know who would cover expenses' - amazing.
Tiger Woods
Your favorite golfer and mine will be in the field this year. For Tiger, so many of his ‘greatest hits’ happened at Augusta. He roared as a 21 year old prodigy in 1997, becoming the youngest winner in the history of the event. Golf fans knew who he was by then, but the world at large turned their attention his way that year. Not only was he young, but he was also one of the very few non-white golfers of his time (or of any time if we’re being honest).
Tiger won his first Masters by an insane 12 shots. Let that sink in - a 21 year old kid beat the best golfers in the world by 12 or more shots. At the time, the sky was the limit for his career. Obviously, he fulfilled the potential and more. I understand if anyone ranks Jack ahead of Tiger in all-time rankings, but I personally have Tiger at the top. The impact of that first win on the game of golf was incredible. So many of today’s stars grew up during this time - I think it’s safe to say all of them loved golf more as a kid because of Tiger. The rising tide that was Tiger Woods lifted all boats that was the rest of the golfing world.
2024 will be his 26th start at Augusta. In that time, he’s won the event five times and missed the cut only once, as a 20 year old amateur. Of those wins, he is the youngest winner, holds the largest winning margin, is one of three guys to win back-to-back, and on a more personal note, created my favorite sports memory of my life.
In 2019, Tiger pulled yet another piece of magic out, winning The Masters at the age of 43, a full 22 years after his first win here. This was before the car accident, but after a run of injuries changed his career. There was of course the marital issues that he dealt with; while they had no physical impact, it certainly played as a distraction. His back had been rebuilt, same with his knee. Swing changes occurred to adjust to his now limited body. While he once dominated with sheer athleticism, 2019 was a year he had to outsmart his opponents. Course history matters here more than anywhere else, but never did it matter more than for Tiger’s last major victory.
When he made his final putt and lifted his arms, I cried. Seeing Tiger put on his green jacket brought on some feelings. We can all identify with overcoming a hardship or persevering through a tough time - watching Tiger that year was a mix of emotions we rarely find.
Editor’s Note: I had an older relative who has since passed that I was very close to. Even with our age gap being 60 years, each of us agreed that Tiger winning The 2019 Masters, after everything that had transpired, was the greatest thing we had ever seen in sports.
I sadly can say that Tiger Woods will not win the 2024 Masters. Too much more has happened to him for that to be a reality. If he were to somehow win this, bring on the water works.
Augusta National
The land this course sits on was once farmland where fruit was grown. The owner of that plantation lived in what is today the clubhouse. After his death in 1910, the land was left to his sons and wife. Over time, the family decided they wanted to get out of the business and sold it to a hotel owner in Miami. The plan was to build another hotel on this site, but tragedy struck when a hurricane wiped out his Miami property.
The land then sat vacant and unused for nearly a decade before another buyer group came in with plans to build a golf course. This group was led by legendary golfer Bobby Jones, who had just completed his playing career. Even with inflation factored in, they got a steal on this property - they paid $70,000 for it in 1930 and began construction of Augusta National.
Alister MacKenzie was the designer, a physician turned golf architect. On the Mount Rushmore of golf course designers, he is unquestionably one of the faces. The course has been touched up or updated more than any other course in the top 10 historical courses of the world, but it’s still the same layout of holes. He completed his work in late 1932 and the first Masters tournament was played in 1934.
Bobby Jones, retired at the time, played in the first few events, instantly adding credibility and interest to the new course. Horton Smith won that first year and took home a check for $1500 - boy have things changed. It was, and has remained, the only major played at the same course each year.
I usually have a spot in these previews where I note how playable a course is by readers - I expect most of you already know, this is about the most exclusive course in the world, likely the hardest to cross off a bucket list. At any given time, the club has roughly 300 members - invite only of course. Current members include people like Bill Gates and Warren Buffet. Initiation into the club is said to cost around $300K with annual dues of only $30K. Condoleezza Rice became the first ever woman member in 2012. (I’m not going to go into the courses history of racism and sexism, but know that it was one of the last private clubs to allow non-white and female members)
There is no course in the world that shows a greater correlation between past history and future success than Augusta National. We’ll go into the trends around past experience and success tomorrow. A big part of this correlation comes from how unique of course this is. You can see in the images I’ve included, and likely in your memory, how hilly it is here. Uneven lies are a norm, as is creative shot making. Every single player will at some point be hitting out of the pine straw, one of the more obvious examples of the creative demands. Elevation changes happen off tee shots and into greens on approach - knowing the right spots to leave your next shot is just as important as making good contact.
Augusta will measure out at 7550 yards, making this a long test fitting for a major venue. Par 5’s are on the shorter side, but the Par 4’s are definitely long. Rough is kept short throughout the course, so missing the fairway is less impactful than many weeks. I’ll include Distance in models as well as recent OTT stats. I’ll still value course history and experience more though - being long and on the correct side of the hole is what we’re after.
Approach matters a ton, just like always, but we’ll have lower weights than usual around it. The reason is that every other facet is more demanding than usual. With only so much weight to value, approach will end up being counted about the same as other stat categories. In terms of specific categories or ranges, Proximity from 200+ yards is a main bucket.
We don’t have ShotLink data at Augusta, which often leads to some assumptions around what has actually mattered. However, enough has been documented for us to have a good idea of what moves the needle. Augusta National does not even allow cell phones on the grounds, so not shocking they don’t have the ShotLink cameras all over the course.
There are very few courses where around the green play will matter this much. Spieth has always been at home in Augusta, makes sense since ARG has always been a sweet spot for him. When Scottie was pushing for the win, a chip in served as the first nail in the coffin. Knowing this makes it tough for me to turn to guys like Morikawa or Hovland, there have been too many cases of them falling behind their peers in this category.
Putting is undoubtedly important for everyone here. However, when we look at the form winners carried in, almost none of them were coming in as elite putters. Scheffler ranked 58th in total putting before the event in 2022, Hideki and DJ similar. I’m going to reward putting history on Bent greens, but it will be minor. I’ll include 3-putt avoidance stats too from a safety point of view. It’s another case where I’ll consider course history as a way of knowing who has putted well here before.
As always, let’s summarize what we know about the course and event history to think about who we want to target this week.
More than anything, we want past success in Masters tournaments. Certain skillsets matter, but it’s a course history week if there ever was one. After that, we want longer hitters who possess a strong ARG history. We’d like a good putting performance, obviously, but won’t need our guy to really be an elite putter. For a betting strategy, I believe it’s a week to have more exposure than average.
The Greens at Augusta
I breezed past notes on putting stats to consider above, but have more to say on the greens. They are the area of the course where experience matters the most. It’s not just in reading the break, it’s also going to play heavily into approach success. Basically every putt is tough, so leaving yourself uphill looks is key. Players have said five foot downhill putts can feel like lag putts with fear of overshooting and leaving more than five feet back. Augusta has the highest three-putt percentage and it’s not particularly close, 4.38% of holes played will see one - this means it happens roughly 75 times per round, compared to the tour average of 49 per round.
We haven’t seen much Bent grass greens yet in 2023, but we’re starting with the best here. The undulations on the greens are so severe and the speed devilishly fast. This type of green doesn’t just maintain itself; rather, it’s probably the piece of work Augusta invests the most on.
Each of the 18 receive a personalized treatment and conditioning plan, catered to its slope and possible pin locations. As no two have exactly the same slopes, they all require a different mowing pattern and equipment, but are brushed prior to mowing. The brushing further ensures a consistent cut and purer roll. If this sounds extreme, it's because it is, but this is Augusta, so 'when in Rome'.
Early Leans
It’s impossible to not like Scheffler this week, he’s playing great and will no doubt be at least contending on Sunday if he has not already run away with it. However, from a betting point of view, everyone knows this and it’s priced accordingly. This week more than ever, no shame if you want to bet Scottie and forget the rest - issue will be that he’s as short as 3/1 in places. I won’t be betting him outright with that ratio in mind.
I will have to consider Hideki. He’s been arguably playing the best golf in 2024 among the non-Scottie’s, ran another top 5 finish last week in Texas. I’m not sure if I ever pictured him as a repeat Masters winner though. The price needs to stay north of 20/1 for me to entertain it - looking at form mattering a lot means he’ll at least be in the short list.
Xander is not someone I believe in, but maybe he can make the jump this week? He’s been piling up good finishes as he often does and shows out so well in stats - he’s never outside the top 3 in any model I make. It will feel like a waste of a bet if I make it, but few guys will match his form. He has a history of good finishes at Augusta too, so I can see this if I squint a bit.
From the LIV side, Brooks Koepka played terribly last week at Doral. He’s of course the best bet to consider from LIV, but that was a really bad showing and adds a bit of doubt. I’m more interested in Joaquin Niemann and the powerful run he’s been on. Niemann was not qualified for The Masters until a couple months ago and put in more work than we’ve seen from any LIV golfer since it’s inception. He’s won three times globally since December (one Aussie, two LIV) and has the game to play well in any field.
How to Watch
We have a lot of streaming opportunities now, but I still want to know the TV schedule (all times EST).
Thursday: 3:00-7:30pm, ESPN
Friday: 3:00-7:30pm, ESPN
Saturday: 3:00-7:00pm, CBS
Sunday: 2:00-7:00, CBS
Closing Thoughts
Obviously, I love golf - watching, gambling, talking, playing - whatever, it’s all great. There is no other sport than can span our entire lifetimes in every one of these aspects. I don’t care how good you were at football or basketball, your memories of those sports will reach the end of the road well before you’re old. Yet every one of you who has ever played golf has played behind two friends in their 70’s or 80’s. It’s just a beautiful game in so many ways.
Now we’re on the precipice of The Masters, my favorite event in all of sports. I mentioned ‘memories’ above because to me The Masters can bring out more of them than just about anything. Memories of Tiger, Jack, or anyone else you’ve loved to root for are important, but it’s more personal. I would venture to guess that many of you watched this event with your dad’s, grandpa’s, etc. Sadly, I can imagine many of those dads and grandpas are no longer with us - yet these people come to mind frequently. For most people, family traditions bring back these memories most; could be Thanksgiving dinner customs, looking at Christmas lights the night of the 24th, a specific birthday cake, etc. The ‘Tradition Unlike Any Other’ can have the same effect.
For me personally, I know I will think about my grandma with every Masters for the rest of my life. She was kind of the root of my initial interest in golf, both watching and playing. I’ll never watch The PLAYERS and think about her, most events don’t carry the same weight. In addition to knowing it’s the most important win of someone’s career, the nostalgia seeping from our screens is what makes this an unusually emotional event.
If anything above sounds like I could be describing you, I encourage you to lean into it. Traditions are what connect the past to the future in all walks of life, kind of what makes us who we are. When they play endless clips of old Masters years, let them take you back to whatever you used to do for the event, I know I will. The most beautiful course in the world with the best players playing on it makes this great - everything that comes along with it makes this unparalleled.
Thank you all for reading this far and for humoring a different vibe in the closing thoughts this week. We’re going to back tomorrow with a special post on Masters trends where I will identify the 2024 winner. Until then, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy
