Houston Open Data and Betting Advice
Houston Open Data and Betting Advice
Scheffler Aims for Three in a Row
We previewed the course on Monday, so we know what to look for. Now we can pull our data and identify the best guys to consider this week.
Order of Email:
Model Details and Results
Betting Process
My Own Personal Plays
Email is a bit long, I would suggest opening in browser for best viewing (button above the title on top right of your email). For anyone who wants quick access to the downloadable model, it can be found here as well as within the post below.
Statistical Model Theory
For any new readers, I use the same thinking each week when we crunch the numbers - the majority of this post will be details on how I form the models, then we’ll talk over the results of each as we go. An old post explaining these stats can be found here.
Going back to my usual strategy of making 4 types of model, I am using the following weights this week:
25% Form Fit - We are always going to want to factor in ‘Current Form’ in some way; this category will usually look at the last 12 rounds over the last 2 months
25% Course Fit - This category factors in course history, comparable course history, as well as other characteristics of the course
30% Skill Fit - Similar to Course Fit, this category looks more at the skillset required to compete; could also call this category ‘Scoring Fit’
20% Safety Fit - This category is used to reward safer plays in our overall model score; heavily used in majors
Memorial Park ‘Fit’ Models
Now we’re going to look at what was included in each category of our overall model:
Form Fit
Pretty steady distribution this week - we know driving distance will matter and approach should make the difference as per usual.
Get ready to see a lot of Scottie Scheffler on these charts. His form could not be much hotter right now, back-to-back wins at The API and PLAYERS. The homecoming to Texas does not bring any concern either, the course fit is about perfect for him. The only thing that could prevent Scheffler from winning a third in a row is if his neck actually is not all the way better. There is no indication of this after his Sunday at Sawgrass a couple weeks ago, but I’m just saying maybe it’s possible he does not win by a touchdown.
If not for Scottie, we’d be talking about if Wyndham Clark will ever lose again. He’s coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes, both to Scheffler. I like the fit here for Clark as well, distance and putting tends to work lots of places. Prices are not as offensively short as Scheffler, but they are still really short. I don’t expect to go to Wyndham this week in betting, kind of in the dead zone of not Scheffler and not long enough to get excited about a win.
Will Zalatoris played a great couple of events leading into The PLAYERS, then completely dropped the ball there. Sawgrass is a course that can do that to guys though, it’s unforgiving and one mistake usually leads to another. I would have liked to see better from him (obviously, we bet on him), but I am not that deterred by one stinker at a place prone to encourage those days. The form other than that is superb and the fit for Memorial Park feels perfect - it’s a long, hard course with tightly mown run-off areas around the green, not unlike Augusta where his short game has looked the best of any course in the rotation. He’s definitely on the short list.
Course Fit
We don’t have a ton of history at Memorial Park, so adding a few different course filters. We have comparables outside of Texas: Detroit GC, TPC Scottsdale, PGA National, and Renaissance Club - each of these favors distance while being mid-level PGA events. Then we have broad difficult scoring conditions and past history at anything in Texas.
Tony Finau almost kept pace with Scottie in this one, great scores across the board. He’s won at this event and is a step ahead the majority of the field in terms of playing on difficult courses. His odds are not awful for his long-term play, but the recent form is just really bad. MC at Valspar and 45th at PLAYERS. Before that, he was striking the ball insanely well and just losing shots putting - I can get behind that. However, two straight events losing shots Tee-2-Green tells me to full skip Finau this week, maybe even fade if we see a matchup against a safer option.
The next guy with a great Texas history is Jason Day. His form has been a bit better than Finau’s, 35th and 36th at API/PLAYERS, two Top 10 finishes in California before that. Statistically, he’s been up and down ball striking and very steady with the putter. He’s been steady with his short game throughout his career and especially in Texas, so I think he is worth considering.
The names above were totally expected, but I was not thinking of Si Woo Kim as a difficult course or Texas guy. Once I dug in a bit more, I can see a lot to like. His form also is good, last time out was a 6th at The PLAYERS. He played the last Houston Open, finished 35th. I was scrolling his shots gained data and found a ridiculous run happening - Si Woo has gained shots OTT in every event since January 2023! His approach gains are roughly 80% of events in that span, so the ball striking has been hot hot. Putting is a different story - he gains in only about 20% of events on that front. Last time out he gained 5 putting at Sawgrass; if he can keep that up, he’s a live candidate in Texas.
Skill Fit
Very typical chart this week here. Distance matters much more than accuracy off the tee, then approach and long-range proximity keep up with the trend. Lastly, I have Bermuda putting - the greens are not pure Bermuda, but still going with the filter on it.
Let’s start with Kurt Kitayama. Kurt fits a lot of courses when distance is prioritized over accuracy. He won at Bay Hill last year, a hugely more important event than this one, but shares a lot of the same characteristics. Kurt’s last event was The PLAYERS, a 19th place, then a MC at Bay Hill before that. I’d liked to have seen a good showing in defense of his API championship if I were going to back him this week. The skill is there, the course fit not bad either, it’s really up to odds for me to consider him.
Jake Knapp is having a heck of a 2024 so far. He won in Mexico, huge for his career, and he added two other Top 5 finishes. All of those were in weaker fields, like this one. He’s a distance guy most so I think he does fit really well at Memorial Park, I just have trouble getting there with his odds being close to guys who have done it for longer. I’m not opposed to backing the up-and-comers as many of you know, but I think Knapp could be about to take a downturn.
Last guy for this section I expect to be a popular play this week, Taylor Moore. Moore played well at Innisbrook last week, defending his win from a year prior. Similar situation to Kitayama, just with some better recent results - skill fits, lacks years of data to feel more confident. He’s made every cut in 2024 and had two major spike weeks on approach the past month. History at Memorial Park is not good though - 2 tries and 2 missed cuts. He’s a better player now than two years ago, so I would take that course history lightly and focus on the form. Between Moore and Kitayama, I am feeling the same, likely not for me on either.
Safety Fit
For Safety, we are looking at how guys avoid bogeys and how often they set up a chance at birdie. I’m also including all short game stats from any Texas course - the tightly cut run-off areas are common all through the state.
Stephan Jaeger models well quite often, you’ve likely seen his names on charts and/or read a bit about him in my bets. He was a cut-making machine for the past year before the last month really put a dent in that reputation. His last three results are MC, 44th, MC. Not great. He still scores well across the board, you’ll see him ranked 3rd in the Total Fit in a moment. It’s just the recent form holding me back on backing Jaeger. He has zero PGA wins as well, something I am not usually concerned about since he won a ton on the Korn Ferry level. Still, I am concerned he’s trending the wrong way at the moment.
Unlike Jaeger, Alex Noren is having no form concerns. He scores well in Safety Fit due to his excellent short game and bogey avoidance. 2024 has been a portrait of consistency, finishing most events somewhere between 20th and 40th. He has shown the ability to spike on approach through his career, a bit weaker on distance though. If Noren plays average OTT, there is a clear path for him to contend with his irons and scrambling. I expect him to be popular this week with these things considered.
Last guy, Beau Hossler. I have planned on betting him in Texas since the Fall. He went to Texas for college and was playing some of the best golf his career…up until the past two weeks. MC’s at PLAYERS and Valspar really slowed down his momentum. More concerningly, he lost 4 or more shots on approach in both events, making it hard to trust that crucial part of his game coming back right away. His history at Memorial Park has two MC’s and a 13th. I think I would have no problem playing him at 100/1, but at 40/1 it’s going to be harder for me to ignore the bad recent run.
Total Fit
Lastly, we combine everything above into our Total Fit Score:
No surprise to see Scottie up top, he’s the best player overall and in great form. Now back in his home state, it’s hard to say anyone has a chance on paper.
For anyone interested, you can view the entire model in a Google Sheet format here. If you ever run into questions working with the sheet, just let me know - I am hoping some have valued this, as I think it’s one of the things that will make Ziggy Golf unique from a lot of the articles and picks you can find elsewhere online.
How I Came to My Bets
To start with, you need to ask yourself if you can be comfortable betting someone 3/1 to win a golf tournament. I am not betting outrights in this way, but there has not been a more obvious clear path to victory for anyone since Tiger. Scheffler is playing insanely good golf, has been for a year, but the putting is finally turning the corner. His past at Memorial Park has two tries, a 2nd and a 9th, so even the history is telling us the fit is ideal. Lastly, he’s from Texas, which is not going to hurt his chances any.
I’m also not considering betting into the ‘Winner Without’ market at reduced odds for everyone. These are not bad paths to go down, backing Scottie or removing him from the field - it’s just not a door I am choosing to go down in how I bet non-major events.
With the Scheffler decision made, I am now torn between backing two favorites or a handful of longer-odds guys.
Memorial Park has played as a tough course in the past. The time of year we see it has changed so a bit more is unknown, but I think we have to assume it did not completely change into a birdie-fest. With that, I am leaning a bit more towards backing players I think can stand up to the test or have stood up to similar tests in the past. Basically, this means a longer-odds bet is going to be harder to get behind. The toughest part is that I love to bet on those losers.
Before talking about the bigger names I am going to back, here are the guys I was most tempted by this week. Possible one or more of them gets added if we have room in the budget.
Keith Mitchell last week almost got it home for us, then he definitely did not. On Monday I felt there is no way to back him after that Sunday, then I looked at the data more. Keith is such a good fit here, strong driving distance, improved long irons, decent putting with past spike rounds. He’s roughly 40/1 in this field - I will be passing on outright bets with him, but I have to go back to finishing position. If he had not completely folded last week on Sunday, I’d be there outright as well. Should he win The Houston Open, I’ll tip my cap and try to feel OK with missing the guy I have bet most in 2024 actually winning.
The next loser I really wanted to bet here is Beau Hossler. He went to Texas for college and has a good history at other Texas courses, even if a bit spotty with MC’s. I had planned on betting Hossler at all Texas events going back to last Fall when his game turned a corner. Had that form kept up, I’d be there right now. However, MC at PLAYERS (forgivable) and at Valspar (concerning) are giving me pause. If he were like 80/1, I’d be there, but he’s between 40-50/1 at time of writing. I wish I could have enough conviction to stick with him, the price is just not generous enough to take that chance. Should he play alright this week and be in the field for the Valero next week, I’ll come back.
Our next loser on the docket was not always a loser, Billy Horschel. Billy has been playing the best golf we’ve seen from him in over a year: 12th at Valspar, MC at PLAYERS, 9th at Cognizant. What’s more, in those good finishes he gained over 3 shots on approach and more shots OTT than putting - rare for Billy to have that stat line. He’s played well in Texas in the past, 7th in the model on that one, but has never played Memorial Park. I’d rather back him on tougher courses, so a lot is lining up for him to be of interest here. My biggest issue is that even with decent play recently, he has not been in contention for a win since 2022.
A very popular loser this week is Alex Noren. He’s playing great, covered him in the Safety Fit section. I have no doubt Noren will make the cut and flirt with a top 20. My issue is that he has never won on PGA Tour after 158 starts. His Houston Open stats are good though, 4th last time here in 2022. If he contends, he’ll get there throuh short game mostly and some with his irons. I mean, he came in 4th in my Total Fit, so there is a lot to say in the positive category. The negatives are really that he has never won in America and is very chalky this week - enough that his price is down to under 40/1 in most places.
Last loser I am considering was almost not a loser last week, Mackenzie Hughes. Hughes was in the running when the back 9 started at Valspar, just faded as Malnati and Young were climbing. Before last week, his form was spotty across 2024, but improved the past month. He was playing great last Fall, so it’s possible the January troubles were just rust at the time and he is back to full power. His history in Houston is strong, four trips saw four made cuts, finishes of 55th, 7th, 29th, 16th. From a data point of view, he ranks #1 in both ARG over last six months and Short Game on any Texas course over the past five years. Lastly, he does have two careers wins, the most recent being in 2022.
Now with the losers I love identified above, we can get to the better guys I will back this week.
First off, I am going to bet Sahith Theegala. My only issue or risk is that he appears to be the most bet golfer this week, something rarely ever encouraging.
I can understand why he is so popular. The book on Sahith in his career has been issues with accuracy off the tee - now we have a course where he can bomb away and not be as penalized by missing fairways. Even with that, I am impressed with his recent play at courses that should have sunk him in Florida, 6th at API and 9th at PLAYERS. Before that he had a 5th in Phoenix and a 2nd at Sentry to open the year. Couple of poorer finishes were there, but no missed cuts.
I’ve believed in Sahith for a long time, we were on him for his win at Fortinet as our most recent outright win. It’s just been so clear in 2024 that he’s really improved his game. Short game was always a strength for him and has remained strong too. His improvement seems to be mostly focused on driver accuracy and improved iron play, things that will serve him well through his career. On the season, he has gained shots putting in every event except one so far, The Sony Open in Hawaii.
If someone is going to beat Scheffler, we’ll need Scottie to only have his ‘B+ game’. If that happens and Sahith brings his ‘A game’, Sahith can win this. He’s far and away the better putter than Scheffler is and I think the confidence is high enough to stand toe-to-toe with him on Sunday. I bet Sahith at 20/1 for .90 units and will add a Top 20 finish bet as well.
After Sahith, the other guy I think can beat Scottie and has a fair price is Will Zalatoris.
I expect Zal to win this week to celebrate the news of Happy Gilmore 2 being made. Side note: good god is that movie bound to suck
Really though, I am backing Willy by forgetting everything that happened at Sawgrass. If there is any course on the schedule to not read too much into, it’s that one. Super fun event, I love it, but we see good guys miss the cut all the time that week. If we remove that one, his recent run is 13th at Torrey, 2nd at Genesis, 4th at Bay Hill. Those are all long courses where we had loaded fields, so pretty much he seemed back to his old self.
Zal went to Wake Forest for college, but he is originally from Texas and went to high school in the Dallas area. He currently lives in Texas today. I think his game travels anywhere, the tougher the course the better, but I love backing a local guy familiar with the grass types. He did not rank well on Texas courses in the model, but that’s more related to him playing so few of these events thus far in his career (remember, this one used to be in the Fall).
What I said before on Sahith about ‘A game’…if Scottie does not have it this week, I think Willy can win this with his ‘A- game’, he’s just a really talented golfer. The change to the broomstick putter is really encouraging for me as well, he’s gained putting in 4/6 events this year - even if small gains, this was his problem area in the past.
I’m betting Will Zalatoris at 22/1 for .85 units, would certainly play down to 20/1 if you needed. Like Sahith, I am also adding the Top 20 bet.
I now have .25 units left to spend on one of the aforementioned ‘losers’.
I have the reasoning above, I am going to back Mackenzie Hughes at 60/1 as my only bet longer than 22/1 this week. Form, history, and proven winning ability gave him the nod over the others.
If I were going to suggest any extreme longshots, I have a few local kids in mind: Cole Hammer, Parker Coody, and Pierceson Coody are all young studs from Texas. The Coody boys come from a strong golfing bloodline (their grandpa won The Masters) and Cole Hammer starred at Texas University a couple years ago. Likely none of them actually make a huge jump to win, but I think each of them could be a fun bet if you want to sprinkle on guys longer than 200/1 in most places. At worst, consider them as cheap DFS options.
Lastly, I scan for any other bets that could show value.
Not a lot this week, pretty weak matchup offerings and Scottie Top 5 is all the way down to 1.70 most places.
Horschel over Thorbjorn Olesen - I like Billy this week, feel less sure on Olesen, who is making his debuts at most US courses this year. His three results so far: 46th, MC, MC. With Billy rounding into form, this is as safe of matchup as we could ask for.
Make Cut: Scheffler, Clark, Noren, Hughes - obviously the first two guys have really high floors any week, so they are just to boost this. Noren and Hughes both are great short game players who have thrived in Texas before, I really don’t see a blow-up from either of them, making this a safe feeling parlay to run this week.
Bets of The Week
I covered my favorite guys this week above, but listing all of my plays below. For anyone who missed it, a post on my unit allocation strategy can be found via this link. You will need to decide what you want to get out of golf betting before you deploy a strategy, but as long as you are doing it responsibly, it’s going to be fun.
Editor’s Notes: Since I wrote that strategy post above, I have decided to stop playing First Round Leader bets. Also, unless otherwise noted, all finishing position bets will pay ties in full (MGM or Bet365).
Outrights
Sahith Theegala (20/1) - risk .90u to win 18u (Bet365)
Will Zalatoris (22/1) - risk .85u to win 18.70u (Bet365)
Mackenzie Hughes (60/1) - risk .25u to win 15u (Caesars)
Top 10
none
Top 20
Sahith Theegala - risk 1u to win .87u (Bet365)
Will Zalatoris - risk 1u to win 1u (MGM)
Keith Mitchell - risk 1u to win 1.50u (MGM)
Top 40
none
Make Cut Parlay
Scheffler, Clark, Noren, Hughes - risk 1u to win 1.47u (Bet365)
Head to Heads
Horschel over Olesen - risk 1u to win .80u (ESPN)
Bet of the Week is going to be that parlay to make the cut above. I just don’t really see any of those four completely melting down, not with the form and history for Noren and Hughes. If Scottie or Wyndham miss the cut, so be it, but I think they are safe enough to add to this as a boost.
Closing Thoughts
Every week in this section I talk about how excited I am for the event and why - this week I won’t be doing that. For a variety of reasons, I think this is the least exciting event of the year so far. Scheffler should run away with it, so the entire exercise of trying to pick a winner felt odd this week. After him, the field is just fairly lacking in star power as well, so I have fears this feels even less of ‘must watch TV’ by Sunday.
Of course having Willy, Sahith, or Hughes in the mix Sunday will completely change my tune and I’ll love the Houston Open, that’s just how betting works and why people get hooked on it. If there was a week for the wiser gambler to skip outrights and only play a few bets, this might be the one - I trust anyone reading this is comfortable with bankroll management by now, so it’s up to you how much you want to risk in Houston. Remember, we have The Masters in two weeks, one of the most bettable events of the year, so our time for more exposure is almost here.
Outside of PGA, we have another LPGA event, The Ford Championship in Arizona. Nelly Korda won her 2nd 2024 last week and will be in the field again this week. I would not back her to win as the shortest-odds favorite, but she could be entering a type of Scheffler-esque run herself. The women I will be backing are Lydia Ko and Minjee Lee. Each of them are playing well to open the year, especially Ko, and have the history to contend at any event. We’re getting a slight boost to their normal odds simply from Nelly being priced shorter than usual.
Next week we’ll be previewing the next Texas event, The Valero. The field is expected to be much stronger than The Houston Open, which never hurts, and Scheffler will not be in that field - meaning we should have a more wide open betting board. If anyone has questions or thoughts on The Houston Open, reply to the email or leave a comment below, happy to help anyone with their plays or anything like that.
Until next week, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy