Houston Open Preview
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
Purse: $9.1 million
The Houston Open has a long history with the tour, going back to 1946. Up until the last decade, it served as the last event before The Masters in the spring. As sponsors changed, the event lost out on some calendar change opportunities and moved to The Fall Swing. Now we see it moving back to March with the Match Play event being removed from the schedule. This will be the 4th time it takes place at Memorial Park (technically it’s a lot more, the event was played here in the 50’s, but that’s hardly relevant). It’s a tougher test than past host courses and could be seen as a play to get the event back to the spring schedule.
The field this week is headlines by Scottie Scheffler, so everyone else will fight valiantly for 2nd place. After Scottie, the big names are Will Zalatoris, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Sahith Theegala, and Jason Day. After that batch there is a steep drop off to the next tier down.
The list of past winners shows this event has not really been a marquee one for stars to play, though we do see the strength of weak fields has risen to the top as well:
2023: Not Played
2022: Tony Finau (-16)
2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)
2019: Lanto Griffin (-14)
2018: Ian Poulter (-19)
I don’t have any winner’s trends saved for this event, will be going off of data and odds mostly to drive decision making. With the changing schedule and weaker field, would be hard to trust any trends you could find anyway.
Course Preview: Memorial Park
This is a pretty cool course. For starters, it’s one of the few municipal courses we’ll see on the tour schedule. This means Memorial Park is one of the most playable courses for people like us. It’s actually located within one of the largest urban parks in the US. The land was a US Army training camp until shortly after World War I when it was sold to the city. The park officially opened in 1924.
Memorial Park Golf Course debuted in 1936, however the current layout really only dates back to 2019. When ownership changed hands, a lot of money was invested in a Tom Doak led re-design. Brooks Koepka was consulted heavily through the project, but Doak is a pretty sought-after designer of modern times himself. The end product was a very challenging test that looks more like a major than a weak field course.
Memorial Park will play 7400 yards as a par 70, pretty long compared to average tracks. With that, distance off the tee has been important here. When we put together Skill Fit scores this week, distance will be a focus. There’s also an uptick in approach shots from over 200 yards out; we’ll factor that in as well. Fairways are wide, so accuracy off the tee becomes less integral.
Whether you are in the fairway or the shortly cut rough, hitting these greens will prove difficult. The greens are definitely the biggest defense the course has to offer. Even though they’re above average size, the GIR % is much lower here than usual. Many holes will see false fronts and severe slopes into tightly mown around the green areas. From a stats point of view, approach will be the most important as per usual, but around the green play is going to narrow our selections into a smaller pool to look at. We can’t trust guys who struggle to get up and down here.
Greens are Bermuda and run fast…the whole course plays firm and fast really. If the weather is as dry as they are calling for right now, everything will only be amplified. We’ll definitely want to isolate putting performance on fast Bermuda this week.
There are some interesting holes at Memorial Park, but the Par 5 16th stands out. It’s a great risk/reward hole that can be reached in two by longer hitters. They’ll need to clear water on the shot in, but with this being the shortest of the three par 5’s, players are incentivized to go for it. The hardest holes are the long par 4’s, notably the ridiculously long 14th hole. At 529(!) yards, 37% of scores have been bogey or worse the past two years.
The player profile we want is someone with above average distance off the tee and good long range approach stats. They need to be at least competent around the green with a strong preference towards those who excel on Bermuda greens. Course history will be of low importance, but we’ll want to consider those who have done better on tougher tests.
Early Leans
I was hopeful when Keith Mitchell entered the final round yesterday with the lead, but that evaporated quickly. With the distance demands at Memorial Park, he’d be a logical person to consider backing again this week. However, I don’t know how I could bet him to win the week after watching him squander an opportunity so badly. I’ll look at finishing position bets on him at most.
It’s hard not to just take Scheffler and call it a week. He’s by far the best player in the world right now, not just in this field. The issue is that he is priced at 3/1, the shortest I have seen anyone priced in any field in at least a decade. I’ll bet him Top 5 likely, but won’t do the outright. Outrights are meant to be fun lottery-style bets, not going to change my strategy this week, though I can’t knock anyone taking Scheffler.
I’ll want to see how the data shakes out, but the names to beat for me right now are Sahith Theegala and Beau Hossler. Both have been playing great golf, Sahith markedly better and Hossler at better odds. If someone besides Scheffler pops through data, I’m flexible to look anywhere. I do think we need to back at least one of the six favorites.
How to Watch
We have a lot of streaming opportunities now, but as an old man, I still want to know the TV schedule.
Thursday: 1:00-4:00pm EST, Golf Channel
Friday: 1:00-4:00pm EST, Golf Channel
Saturday: 1:00-4:00pm EST, Golf Channel
Sunday: 1:00-4:00pm EST, Golf Channel
Closing Thoughts
What could have been for Keith Mitchell at Innisbrook. He played such a good week just to see it all blow apart Sunday. This happens with any level of golfer from time to time, happens a bit more in fields where none of the top 10 had won in the past three years. It’s frustrating to come close without really being that close, but we move on to another week.
I’ll debate a bit about just betting Scheffler in Houston, but I know I won’t actually get there on 3/1. If it had opened at 8/1, my bet would already be in, but prices matter in the long-run. This will be his last event before Augusta, where he has already fallen to nearly 5/1. If he comes out and wins this thing comfortably, he’ll be the shortest Masters favorite since Tiger’s prime.
We’ll be back on Wednesday with the usual post of data and bets I like. If anyone has questions in the meantime, you know where to find me. Until then, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy