Byron Nelson Data and Betting Advice
Byron Nelson Data and Betting Advice
Shorter one this week
We previewed the course on Monday, so we know what to look for. Now we can pull our data and identify the best guys to consider this week.
Order of Email:
Model Details and Results
Betting Process
My Own Personal Plays
Email is a bit long, I would suggest opening in browser for best viewing (button above the title on top right of your email). For anyone who wants quick access to the downloadable model, it can be found here as well as within the post below.
Statistical Model Theory
For any new readers, I use the same thinking each week when we crunch the numbers - the majority of this post will be details on how I form the models, then we’ll talk over the results of each as we go. An old post explaining these stats can be found here.
Going back to my usual strategy of making 4 types of model, I am using the following weights this week:
30% Form Fit - We are always going to want to factor in ‘Current Form’ in some way; this category will usually look at the last 12 rounds over the last 2 months
25% Course Fit - This category factors in course history, comparable course history, as well as other characteristics of the course
30% Skill Fit - Similar to Course Fit, this category looks more at the skillset required to compete; could also call this category ‘Scoring Fit’
15% Safety Fit - This category is used to reward safer plays in our overall model score; heavily used in majors
TPC Craig Ranch ‘Fit’ Models
Now we’re going to look at what was included in each category of our overall model:
Form Fit
Alex Noren has been scoring well in this chart all season. He’s been striking the ball at an elite level going back for much of 2024 and he’s finished in the top 25 in each of his last 5 events. We’ll see later that he also has a good history in Texas, so there’s a lot to like. The issue for me is a mix of his price and the lack of true contention he’s had on the PGA level. He’s won globally, not that much, but still some - I just am not wild about playing him at shorter than 20/1.
The other good form/short odds guy topping this list is Si Woo Kim. It’s absolutely insane to see, Si Woo has gained shots OTT in every event since January of 2023! On approach, he has gained in 10 of the 11 he has played in 2024. Really great stuff from him ARG as well. Putting has been the issue, but even that has been alright so far. All of this adds up to him having a great run this year. He was runner-up at Craig Ranch a year ago as well. Clearly, he’s going to be short-priced with all of this considered, but it could be worth it. Compared to Noren above, Si Woo has a much greater chance to actually win in my mind.
Course Fit
Looking pretty evenly across different course metrics this week: history at Craig Ranch, comparable courses from the past two years, easy courses from the past two years, and Texas courses from the past five years.
Stephan Jaeger won earlier this year at Vidanta Vallarta, one of our comparable courses. He’s played well at most of the comparable courses though, as well as anything easy and in Texas. At TPC Craig Ranch, he’s logged finishes of 38th and 11th - also pretty good compared to the field. I expected Spieth to win this chart - he would have, if not for two guys who line up so well when look at similar factors from the past couple years.
Jordan Spieth did not come out up top on this one but he still scores great. His course history is the best in the field with finishes of 9th in 2021 and 2nd in 2022. He’s the top scorer across all Texas history as well, not surprising at all since he has won multiple times in the state. I can easily see the case for Jordan to win this week when you look at the big picture - however, he’s been playing awful for most of the season. 3rd at Sentry to open the year was great, but then his next 8 starts saw only 1 finish better than 30th. I would not advise paying up for Spieth this week.
Skill Fit
Long shots and Bent putting form this model. We have most weight on approach metrics as usual, then a slight edge to distance as our only driving stat in models this week.
I have never seen the type of segmentation we see above on any chart. Keith Mitchell takes this one and it’s not remotely close. His composite score of 14.4 is a whopping 26.6 better than 2nd place. That’s the same gap as 2nd place down to 51st place! Keith will score well when distance is valued, but it’s mainly his approach and long-range proximity of the past 6 months that get him this high. Anyone reading this knows I love Keith Mitchell, nice to see the data back him up this week. Bent has been his best surface of the past two years as well, so we see that putting score better than usual. I will have exposure on Keith again this week.
Mid-way down the top ten on this one is Min Woo Lee. I like his game and wish I could bet him more often, his approach has just been hard to trust. He has the distance and the putting, even good from longer range with his irons - as soon as we are 150 out though, he’s no longer going to look like a good play. I’m calling him out in the write-up because I do think he could win at this course eventually, just not sure I can get there this year for his price. If/when Min Woo starts putting approach play together across a couple events, we’ll pounce.
Safety Fit
Looking at safety around ability to go low more than scramble this week. I have stats for birdie-or-better on easy courses, par 5 scoring, opportunities gained, and putting from 10-20 feet.
Tom Hoge takes this one. He’s been putting way better than I would have guessed from the key 10-20 foot range, that’s helping keep his score good. Mainly, any look at iron/approach play will favor him. He’s a birdie-fest type of player who is going to fall apart when ARG is a key need - not the case this week though. Hoge has some mixed results at this course in the past, best being a 17th two years ago. I’m not sure if I’ll get all the way to an outright on Hoge, but he should be short-list consideration along with Si Woo for guys on the shorter side of pricing without being elite favorites.
Runner up on this chart goes to Adam Scott. He’s played some really good golf in 2024 and actually has some similarities to fellow Australian Jason Day in 2023. Last year, Day was showing signs of his game being in a better spot through the early months, then he popped enough for a win here. I’m not that bullish on Scott, not enough to bet him outright at least, but would fully endorse a DFS play. His entire game has been solid and his putting is markedly better than it was years ago.
Total Fit
Lastly, we combine everything above into our Total Fit Score:
Odd to see Peter Kuest take the top spot in any model. It all starts with his great Course Fit score and stays pretty good across the board. He’s available at long odds, so should be one to consider in betting or DFS.
For anyone interested, you can view the entire model in a Google Sheet format here. If you ever run into questions working with the sheet, just let me know - I am hoping some have valued this, as I think it’s one of the things that will make Ziggy Golf unique from a lot of the articles and picks you can find elsewhere online.
How I Came to My Bets
I’m open to backing short-priced options this week. However, I have zero interest in Spieth or Day. Zalatoris is a bit more appealing, but for him I would much rather back him when scoring is tough. This leaves only five other options short of 30/1:
Adam Scott - could happen, just not sure I want to pay up for a guy who has not won in this long
Sungjae Im - still not trusting his recent form enough, would start to believe if he plays well here
Min Woo Lee - just too bad with irons lately, need to see a rebound there before we can feel confident backing him
Alex Noren - I would rather have Scott above if I’m paying up for someone who has not won for a long time
Si Woo Kim - I think this is my guy
So I am going to back Si Woo Kim at 22/1, likely add a finishing position bet on him. The ball striking performances of 2024 have been so so good, you can see a world where he gets clicking with his putter enough to convert chances. I think Si Woo has a really high floor right now, so I would endorse playing him in any formats.
Most expensive option has been picked, time to find my personal favorites down the board:
I mentioned Keith Mitchell in the Skill Fit section, can confirm I will be playing him again this week. For Keith, we’ve backed him a ton this year, usually hitting on finishing position but still blank on outrights. For how he is playing, I believe a win can happen - it just needs to come when we are playing down south like this. By the time we are seeing events in the Midwest or Europe, the schedule will not be so kind to him.
Driving is not that important this week but it will pay to be long. The biggest reason I am bullish on Mitchell though has been his approach play - this has been by far his best year of iron play through his career. Bent has been a best surface in the past two years alone, surprising since Keith is from Bermuda country. Texas has been a good opportunity for him no matter which stop, so I think everything is lining up for him to be a good option.
I found Keith at 45/1 on Monday, would play down to 35/1 if needed. The finishing position bet is a potential bet of the week.
The other guys I am backing outright are Mav McNealy and Mackenzie Hughes. Time was tough for me to find this week with work travel, apologies, wanted to get this out on time and could not provide as much explanation as I’d like.
Bets of The Week
I covered my favorite guys this week above, but listing all of my plays below. For anyone who missed it, a post on my unit allocation strategy can be found via this link. You will need to decide what you want to get out of golf betting before you deploy a strategy, but as long as you are doing it responsibly, it’s going to be fun.
Editor’s Notes: Since I wrote that strategy post above, I have decided to stop playing First Round Leader bets. Also, unless otherwise noted, all finishing position bets will pay ties in full (MGM or Bet365).
Outrights
Si Woo Kim (22/1) - risk .90u to win 19.80u (Bet365)
Keith Mitchell (45/1) - risk .45u to win 20.25u (Bet365)
Maverick McNealy (66/1) - risk .30u to win 19.80u (MGM)
Top 10
None
Top 20
Si Woo Kim - risk 1u to win .85u (MGM)
Top 40
Keith Mitchell - risk 1u to win .80u (MGM)
Mav McNealy - risk 1u to win .95u (MGM)
Make Cut Parlay
None
Head to Heads
None
Bet of the Week is going to be Si Woo Kim Top 20.
Closing Thoughts
Sorry to everyone, did not get this finished with the busy week at my other job. If anyone has questions on any of my plays or others you are considering, let me know by replying to this email. I’ll be back home late Wednesday and could reply to anyone en route.
Otherwise, you know the usual: best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy