Byron Nelson Preview

The least known PGA event namesake

Byron Nelson Preview

• Course: TPC Craig Ranch

• Purse: $9.5 million

The event goes all the way back to 1944 and did not always have this name. I’ll have a quick blurb on who Byron Nelson is later, but he won the first iteration of this event.

We have a pretty weak field in store, common for this event. Jordan Spieth will be the shortest odds, followed by defending champ Jason Day, Will Zalatoris, and Si Woo Kim. It’s a full field at over 150 guys, so expect a ton of younger (or older) names compared to the usual weeks.

The event sponsor has changed over the history of this event, as has the venue. TPC Craig Ranch became the host in 2021, so we have only three years to go off of. In both 2021 and 2022, KH Lee was your winner. KH plays TPC courses well, this clearly being his sweet spot. The winning scores were -25 and -26, a true birdiefest. Last year saw Jason Day win at -23.

There are no meaningful trends to consider for an event with this short of history. I think we can build out a profile for the week when we breakdown the course though.

Who Is Byron Nelson?

Not as well-known as Arnold Palmer, but has an event named after him, Byron Nelson was a very successful golfer of a bygone era. Active from 1932 to 1946, Nelson was a Texas native who racked up 52 career PGA wins, including 5 majors (2 Masters, 2 PGA Championships, 1 US Open).

Contemporary to Ben Hogan and Sam Snead (both arguably more famous), Nelson is most known for a hot streak to rival all hot streaks. In 1945, he won 18 events, including a record 11 consecutive events. 11 in a row! Of course, the field was not as deep back then, the courses less varied, but 11 wins in a row is a record that I feel safe in saying will never be broken.

So he won 18 times in 1945 and retired in 1946?! He did, to become a rancher. This is mostly an indication of the money at hand in this era - guys were not becoming filthy rich playing golf alone as they do today. Nelson did some golf commentary, later lending his name to this event. He stayed somewhat involved in the game the rest of his life, but never played full-time after retiring at age 34. He died in 2006 at the age of 94, still living in his home state of Texas.

TPC Craig Ranch Preview

We’re heading to Dallas this week, the suburb of McKinney specifically. TPC Craig Ranch is a private club within the community ‘Craig Ranch’, much like Quail Hollow in a couple weeks. The course isn’t too old, Tom Weiskopf designed it in 2004. It fits the mold of TPC courses in that it boasts impeccable conditions, but really lacks any creativity. It’s kind of straightforward, missing the strategic element we see from so many Tour stops.

It is private, but it was pretty simple to find prices. It seems like there are more members than most private clubs, ballpark $40K initiation fee and $1K monthly. It’s nice and all, the pros play here (for now), but pretty boring course in my opinion.

The course sounds long at 7460 yards, but it doesn’t seem to play as long as it sounds. We’ll value distance in models, but low weight. Overall, the test off the tee is about as easy as it gets. The fairways are wide, rough short. I’d like to back long hitters, past leaderboards just suggest it’s less impactful than most courses over 7400 yards.

When OTT is less important to consider, we naturally shift to approach play being even higher weight. The approach test shows to be pretty easy though, GIR is 71% (average is 66%). Proximity range stats show 200+ yards is the most common range again, so expect that come up in models this week. Average is 23% from that range, Craig Ranch is 35%.

With the high GIR, scrambling play is less important. The entire test is pretty easy by Tour standards, so we kind of just don’t need to worry about it too much. Greens are on the larger side without much nuance. I’m choosing not to look at ARG or Bogey Avoid stats at all this week when pulling stats.

Just like everything else here, the putting test is on the easier side. Both 1-putt % and 3-putt % showed a better number than average. The surface is Bent and isn’t overly fast or slow. When we see easy driving, easy approach, and easy scrambling, then we’re setting up to have a putting contest.

Overall, I could swap this course out on the schedule, sure that came through in this preview. There just isn’t any defense on the course unless winds pick way up. They have a creek that weaves through 14 different holes, but it’s almost never actually in play (a huge missed opportunity in my opinion).

As always, let’s summarize what we know about the course and event history to think about who we want to target this week.

We’re going to give a slight edge to long hitters, but broadly don’t care about OTT this week. We’ll focus a lot of weight on approach play, specifically from 200+ yards this year. We need birdie makers this week; not everyone can get to -25 or better. It likely becomes a putting contest. I’m thinking the better betting option is longshots who have a good history of putting on Bent greens and decent recent approach play.

Another Rowdy Par 3

In researching the venue this week, I came across some promotional materials from the past couple years. If you recall earlier this year at TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management Open), the 16th hole is a Par 3 with grandstands - patrons lose their minds for a hole in one, or long putt. Craig Ranch aimed to replicate that type of atmosphere on their Par 3 17th hole.

Grandstands will be present and the crowd will be encouraged to get rowdy - still, do not expect this to be as wild as Scottsdale. However, Craig Ranch did up the ante a bit (pun so very intended). Inside the suites around the 17th green will be casino games - from what I can tell its Blackjack and Craps. For around $500, you get all you can eat and drink along with access to the casino tent. With gambling becoming more and more accepted and appreciated, it's certainly possible that this trend spreads.

Early Leans

I know it’s unlikely I back Spieth, Day, or Zalatoris this week. Of the names shorter than 30/1, I would be tempted only by Si Woo Kim. He has the type of game that sets up well for birdie-fests and has been striking the ball so well in 2024. Not a lock to play him, just the only name I’ll consider from top of the board.

Keith Mitchell, Beau Hossler, and Maverick McNealy will all get consideration from me as well. Each of these guys is someone I have backed at other events this year and are yet to win. I’ll need to see odds to see how many of them work, but this is the type of week that one of them could get over the line.

How to Watch

We have a lot of streaming opportunities now, but I still want to know the TV schedule (all times EST).

• Thursday: 4:00-7:00pm, Golf Channel

• Friday: 4:00-7:00pm, Golf Channel

• Saturday: 1:00-3:00pm, Golf Channel; 3:00-6:00, CBS

• Sunday: 1:00-3:00pm, Golf Channel; 3:00-6:00, CBS

Closing Thoughts

Even with Rory and Lowry winning the Zurich, it was as mild of weekend as we could have with pro golf. LIV Adelaide went off in the middle of the night US, the LPGA lacked star power, and The PGA had their weird event. Team golf can be super fun, but the past week proved that teams alone do not make entertainment.

Not going to lie, it’s only a minor improvement this week. TPC Craig Ranch is on the more boring half of courses we’ll see and the field is very weak. With easy scoring like this, the door is open for more names to compete, so there is a chance none of the big names are even in contention when prime coverage rolls around next Sunday. As per usual, having someone in the running will change my interest level.

That will do it for the preview - coverage note this week, I am traveling a bit for my other job, so TBD on how much I will be able to produce for Wednesday. At the very least, I aim to have the model done to be shared.

Until then, best of luck with all your bets.

Matt / Ziggy