Wells Fargo Data and Betting Advice
Wells Fargo Data and Betting Advice
Big Field the Week Before a Major
We previewed the course on Monday, so we know what to look for. Now we can pull our data and identify the best guys to consider this week.
Order of Email:
Model Details and Results
Betting Process
My Own Personal Plays
Email is a bit long, I would suggest opening in browser for best viewing (button above the title on top right of your email). For anyone who wants quick access to the downloadable model, it can be found here as well as within the post below.
Short Week
Hey everybody, hope your week has been easy so far. This preview is going to be very brief, I just did not have as much time with my other job keeping me very busy lately. Anyway, I still have the model pictures and links as well as my bets at the bottom. If anyone did have questions on my plays or anything you are considering, leave me a comment or reply to the email and I’ll get back to you later today.
Quail Hollow ‘Fit’ Models
Now we’re going to look at what was included in each category of our overall model:
Form Fit
Course Fit
Skill Fit
Safety Fit
Total Fit
Lastly, we combine everything above into our Total Fit Score:
For anyone interested, you can view the entire model in a Google Sheet format here. If you ever run into questions working with the sheet, just let me know - I am hoping some have valued this, as I think it’s one of the things that will make Ziggy Golf unique from a lot of the articles and picks you can find elsewhere online.
Bets of The Week
I covered my favorite guys this week above, but listing all of my plays below. For anyone who missed it, a post on my unit allocation strategy can be found via this link. You will need to decide what you want to get out of golf betting before you deploy a strategy, but as long as you are doing it responsibly, it’s going to be fun.
Editor’s Notes: Since I wrote that strategy post above, I have decided to stop playing First Round Leader bets. Also, unless otherwise noted, all finishing position bets will pay ties in full (MGM or Bet365).
Outrights
Sahith Theegala (30/1) - risk .65u to win 19.50u (Bet365)
Matt Fitzpatrick (40/1) - risk .50 to win 20u (ESPN)
Hideki Matsuyama (35/1) - risk .55u to win 19.25u (Draftkings)
Akshay Bhatia (50/1) - risk .30u to win 15u (ESPN)
Top 10
Xander Schauffele - risk 1u to win 1u (Bet365)
Wyndham Clark - risk 1u to win 1.45u (Bet365)
Top 20
Sahith - risk 1u to win .91u (MGM)
Fitzpatrick - risk 1u to win 1.10u (MGM)
Hideki - risk 1u to win 1u (MGM)
Top 40
none
Make Cut Parlay
N/A
Head to Heads
Cantlay over Morikawa - risk 1u to win .79u (Bet365)
Sahith over Hovland - risk 1u to win .83u (Bet365)
Akshay over Shane Lowry - risk 1u to win .80u (ESPN)
Benny An over Sungjae - risk 1u to win .80u (ESPN)
Bet of the Week is going to be Benny An over Sungjae. I’ve been fading Sungjae on and off this year, then he withdrew from a recent event - that’s very unlike him, dude plays like 45 weeks a year. An has kept up good form and the distance favors him to begin with. I would consider going 2u on this one even.
Closing Thoughts
Apologies to any loyal readers for the quick previews the past two weeks. My hope is that this is a temporary blip in the grand scheme of things and we can get back to full previews every week. Frustrating since we have an alternate PGA event this week to go along with the main slate, but I have not been able to dig into The Myrtle Beach at all.
Next week we’ll have the PGA Championship. While that is the lowest prestige major in my opinion, it is still a major, so that’s something to look forward to. Hopefully we have a good one this week - at least a close finish is on the table with Scottie still out.
Remember to reach out to me with comment or reply to email if you have any questions. Otherwise, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy