Valero Data and Betting Advice
Valero Data and Betting Advice
Finding Value at Valero
We previewed the course on Monday, so we know what to look for. Now we can pull our data and identify the best guys to consider this week.
Order of Email:
Model Details and Results
Betting Process
My Own Personal Plays
Email is a bit long, I would suggest opening in browser for best viewing (button above the title on top right of your email). For anyone who wants quick access to the downloadable model, it can be found here as well as within the post below.
Statistical Model Theory
For any new readers, I use the same thinking each week when we crunch the numbers - the majority of this post will be details on how I form the models, then we’ll talk over the results of each as we go. An old post explaining these stats can be found here.
Going back to my usual strategy of making 4 types of model, I am using the following weights this week:
25% Form Fit - We are always going to want to factor in ‘Current Form’ in some way; this category will usually look at the last 12 rounds over the last 2 months
25% Course Fit - This category factors in course history, comparable course history, as well as other characteristics of the course
30% Skill Fit - Similar to Course Fit, this category looks more at the skillset required to compete; could also call this category ‘Scoring Fit’
20% Safety Fit - This category is used to reward safer plays in our overall model score; heavily used in majors
TPC San Antonio ‘Fit’ Models
Now we’re going to look at what was included in each category of our overall model:
Form Fit
Splitting weight between approach and putting mainly this week, a bit more given to OTT than ARG as usual on that end.
We are not going to find a much better run of form for Hideki Matsuyama since he won the Masters a few years back. 1st at Riviera, 12th at Bay Hill, 6th at Sawgrass. He’s gaining massive shots ball striking as well, gained 4 putting in that win. Putting is never going to be that consistent for him, but the rest of his game is looking so steady right now. He warrants consideration at Augusta and even more this week. His Valero history has a 15th last year and a 30th in 2021, so it’s fairly rosy on that view as well. He’s my first thought among the shorter-odds plays this week.
Also riding good form is Alex Noren. He has put up three straight top 20 finishes where he has gained shots in all four categories, super consistent right now. He’s always been a great short game player, kind of opposite of Hideki, and the ball striking is clicking right now too. His one trip to San Antonio led to a tie for 15th last year and we saw him comfortable in Texas last week. Odds are really short for a guy who has never won on PGA Tour, but I can see why. I likely do not get there on an outright but would look at finishing position or made cut parlays with Noren in them.
My first bet of the week was on Billy Horschel. Minus The PLAYERS (missed cut), he also has three top 20 finishes. More encouragingly for Billy, he’s gaining shots consistently ball striking again, something he has not done in over a year. The short game will stay steady, so if he can keep this run up for another week I could see him winning. He’s not eligible for The Masters yet, would be the first one he has missed since 2017. I know that’s an extra motivator for him and he’s a guy who has responded to that extra motivation in the past. Odds have gotten a bit short but I’d play him at any odds this week if I’m being honest.
Course Fit
Looking mostly at history in San Antonio, comparable courses outside Texas, and any event in Texas as our main stats this week. Small weight given to wind since that usually comes up in this part of the world.
I did not need the charts to tell me Jordan Spieth has a great history in Texas. His Valero history is great with a 1st, 2nd, and 10th, but he has also come in 30th and 35th in two of his last three trips here. The bigger concern for me is his form: MC at PLAYERS is fine, but MC at Valspar the following week is really tough. He put up a 3rd at Sentry to open the year and a 6th at WM, but it’s been pretty bad for Jordan other than those two. He’ll get attention next week for Augusta based on his history there of course - if we don’t see any good signs from him this week, it makes him an easy skip for me next week. For the pricing and form, I have zero interest in Jordan this week, would not fade either though with the course history.
A lot of the data on Matt Kuchar is from longer ago than most of the field, but it’s still really good. Let’s confirm right now though, do not play Matt Kuchar this week. His history is good in Texas and absolutely awful in 2024: 8 events, 6 MC’s. The tempting thing is his last four years at TPC San Antonio: 7th, 12th, 2nd, 3rd. It’s clearly one of the few courses he can actually contend, but note that the field was way weaker in those. I could see a case for DFS lineups, but even then I would proceed with caution.
Rickie Fowler brings a similar mix of good history and bad form. He’s only missed a couple cuts in 2024 but his best finish is 35th. Last year was a resurgence for Rickie and it feels like that was temporary. He’s been one of my favorite fades of the year so far with no sign of stopping anytime soon. I believe a lot of his comprable course success came last year when he was a much better player, so I am not reading too much into him scoring well in a chart. His Valero history is good: 17th, 17th, MC, 10th last year, but the form had a lot of correlation with those finishes. I am not betting him to MC or anything, should find a good matchup option to fade though.
Skill Fit
We don’t have a core proximity range to feature this week, so we are splitting approach into baseline APP and Opportunities gained (just means a makeable birdie look). We have Good Drives gained as a bit of OTT weight, but not much this week. Lastly, any putting on slow greens from the past two years.
Eric Cole continues to show up in Skill Fit charts due to his excellent approach and putting play over the past year. Then he stunk it up all across his home state the past month. I cannot make a good case to go to Cole here, hope he can get things turned around soon since he does not have a ton of time left in his career. We saw Jaeger win for the first time in his mid-30’s last week, it’s just not the norm. Cole’s best chances likely came last year in the Fall and I would only consider as a DFS option this week since he will likely be low owned.
As he often does, Sam Ryder scores well in this one. His approach play has remained elite: over 5 shots gained on approach in Houston last week. He used that exquisite iron play to finish 64th. You should not see that for a pro golfer, if your irons are on that well you really need to finish better. He had some good results in Florida only due to his putter performing way above baseline. If we can’t see the guy even close to contention when he is hitting irons and putter well, then there are just too many holes in the rest of his game to take him seriously.
Last guy for this section will be popular this week, Ludvig Aberg. The kid can kind of do it all on any course. He’s tearing it up every week he plays and gains in any area without ever hemorrhaging strokes in another area. The added interest on Aberg this week is due to him playing college golf at Texas Tech. So we know he is as familiar with Texas golf as any part of the US. He played this all the way back in 2022 to a MC, but take that with a grain of salt, he’s far better than he was then. I would love to back Aberg this week and every week, just will need to consider the pricing and other options - he is very short for a guy with this little history, just speaks to how good he already is.
Safety Fit
Pretty usual with this one. Scrambling stats will matter with the missed greens in San Antonio, and we see sand play take more of a priority with all the bunkers to be found. Including Par 5 here as I often do, want to reward the guys who can make the most of tougher Par 5 holes.
Ben Griffin has been playing some improved golf as of late. He’s been a good short game player since he came on the scene a couple years ago, never really contending to win in any event that mattered but playing steady golf. I can’t make the case for him outright in Texas this week, like him as a DFS play though. He missed the cut in his only trip here in the past so it’s not like he’s an obvious guy to like. I just think he has a very controlled game and should be good to make the cut at a very cheap price in DFS formats.
My Texas gut feel is back this week, Beau Hossler. He was 57th last week, so I definitely did not miss out on anything by waiting. Prices have gotten more fair on the former Longhorn, so I do expect to have him on my shortlist again and likely take the plunge. His short game and familiarity with Texas will provide a high floor I hope, and he did log a 4th at The Valero last year. If his form had been a bit better, I’d be more excited, but that’s why we are getting a good price. If you are not focusing bets on only shorter-odds guys, I think Hossler makes a lot of sense.
I don’t know if there is more annoying golfer to predict than Taylor Pendrith. The guy has courses that jump off the page as fitting him, then he is wildly inconsistent. 10 at Sony Open, followed up with a MC at AMEX. 9th at Torrey, then 4 straight missed cuts, including in Mexico on a course that feels created for his game. There is just no way to trust when he is going to pop and when he’ll show up with another dud. For that reason, I am choosing to avoid him in all bets moving forward. I could see a DFS play on him if you are entering a lot of lineups, I just think we have options with as much potential and far greater consistency.
Total Fit
Lastly, we combine everything above into our Total Fit Score:
A bit surprising to see Alex Noren top a Total Fit chart. He’s playing great this year though and has that good Course Fit as well. He’s the only guy to appear in the top ten of every chart and makes for a well-rounded option this week.
For anyone interested, you can view the entire model in a Google Sheet format here. If you ever run into questions working with the sheet, just let me know - I am hoping some have valued this, as I think it’s one of the things that will make Ziggy Golf unique from a lot of the articles and picks you can find elsewhere online.
How I Came to My Bets
First off, I am betting Billy Horschel. When odds opened Monday, I found him varying from 40/1 all the way down to 22/1. 22 is insanity, but it speaks to how well things are lining up for him this week.
I covered it above, his recent form is the best run in years for him. The Valero history has been just as good really, it’s just from long ago. He last played it in 2019, a MC; before that he logged 11th in 2018, 4th in 2016, 3rd in 2015, 3rd in 2013. There were some less exciting finishes mixed in before that to be fair. The history is clearly good though and he had many spike putting weeks in San Antonio in the past, gaining more than 5 shots putting on three occasions.
Driving accuracy matters less in Texas, music to Billy’s ears. As long as he keeps it remotely on the course off the tee, then he’ll have the chance to keep up his hot irons. If that happens, then I feel good about him being able to make enough birdie putts to continue and scramble to avoid bogeys when he does miss a green.
The biggest issue I have with Horschel this week is how popular he’ll be. We see the most bet guys struggle weekly on Tour, so there’s always the chance of this happening. I go back and forth on reading into chalk or ignoring it - for Billy, I will ignore it and then likely skip anyone else who models well and has half of Twitter betting them.
I bet Billy Horschel outright at 40/1 for a half unit, will add a finishing position bet on him as well.
With my gut-feel play in, time to look at the top of the board to see if we’ll back anyone shorter than Billy boy.
The Valero has seen some longshot winners in the past but never had this strong of field for them. With that, I am inclined to back at least one guy in the sub 25/1 range. To start with, let’s cover everyone shorter than 30/1 with some thinking to narrow the list of options:
Rory - no way to feel good about paying up for him here. We have seen shaky form and would have to pay sub-10/1 odds for the biggest star in the field, easiest skip of anyone for me.
Ludvig Aberg - I can easily picture him winning this thing. He’s played great all season and will start winning events before we know it. Familiarity will be stronger here than anywhere we’ve been on the schedule so far, so it does feel like it’s lining up.
Hideki - great form, great history, sometimes it does not have to be made complicated. If he’s a popular play I will look elsewhere; just so much to like this week.
Spieth - great history, awful form, with Spieth it almost always is complicated. No one bounces out of slumps as quickly as Jordan, so a return to a place he’s had success could be just what he needs. It’s a skip for me though.
Morikawa - the fit is strong for him at almost every course, especially when distance is not a prerequisite. Mediocre form and no trips to San Antonio make him much less appealing though.
Homa - been a disappointing year for one of 2023’s biggest stars. He does not have a ton of Texas playing history either, so I would not pay up for Max this week any more than I would Morikawa or Spieth.
Corey Conners - good player, won here multiple times before, just really short odds for a guy who stands out on this list as being a tier below the rest. The form is good though with back-to-back top 20 finishes coming in. I am not interested at the odds, would be a great one-and-done play though.
Fitzpatrick - been a slow 2024 so far but could be rounding into form with a 5th at The PLAYERS. I like how well the rest of his game would fit this course, never have to worry about Fitz’s short game.
Fleetwood - another guy with a slow 2024 start, just no signs of coming into form for Tommy. No history at this event and nothing really jumping out as why he should thrive here, I am confused why he is listed so short.
The three guys I think should get considered among the favorites above are Ludvig, Hideki, and Fitzpatrick.
As good as he is, I don’t want to pay Aberg’s price in relation to the others. If I felt there was a clear and obvious advantage he had over Hideki and Fitz, I’d play him, but it feels pretty even to me, so he is out.
Between Hideki and Fitzpatrick, we’ve just seen much better form from Hideki over the season. I could see Fitzpatrick playing well, so might look for a matchup with him in it, but Hideki is going to be my outright bet from the top of the board.
I mentioned his recent form when he topped that chart: 1st at Riviera, 12th at Bay Hill, 6th at Sawgrass. In the first and last of that run he gained over 9 shots ball striking. In two trips to TPC San Antonio he has finished 30th and 15th - encouragingly, he was near field average in putting both of those weeks. Putting has always been the weakest part of his game, so this is good to see. Comparing him to Corey Conners, twice a winner here, Hideki is just like a better version - robotically consistent irons with a question mark at putter. With traditionally bad putters doing well here in the past, I think the path is clear for Hideki.
Lastly, pulling his best stats support everything we have been seeing:
Texas Courses: 3rd
Last 6 Months ARG: 1st
Recent Approach: 7th
Recent OTT: 8th
I am playing Hideki outright at 21/1 for .90 units and adding a finishing position bet.
With most of my outright budget now spent, it’s time to scan the board for how to best use our remaining half unit.
We don’t have room to add Fitzpatrick or Aberg at their prices. The Total Fit champ Alex Noren would just barely fit. I’m 100% playing a finishing position bet on him, not as excited on the outright bet though. We’re down to a zone where I could back only Noren or I could pick a couple guys at double the odds - with Noren around 30/1 at most books, I’m inclined to look elsewhere for my last outright plays.
I entered the year with a couple gut-feel plays in mind: Eric Cole at Cognizant and Beau Hossler in Texas. Cole played out as poorly as any bet of the season, but I am not scared of throwing good money after bad, so let’s get it Beau.
The goober above is a college-age Beau Hossler. He’s still a goober today, but here’s hoping he can get his first career win back in Texas. Stats are not jumping off the page for him the way they did for Horschel, Hideki, or Noren - the root of this play comes from watching Hossler through the Fall and into 2024.
Over the course of his career, Hossler’s been a good driver and short game player, lacking with his irons. That’s not normally the profile we look for at Ziggy Golf I will admit. However, he’s gaining shots on approach in about half of his events the past six months - nothing huge, but compared to his career average of around 25% of events gaining in approach, it shows improvement. Putting and ARG have stayed consistent and the mixture has yielded 3 Top 10 finishes since the Fall.
His recent stats look worse than they really are, mostly due to some MC’s in Florida. He’s never played well in Florida though, MC’s litter his history in the state, so I am not going to overreact to these. The 57th last week was disappointing until you realize he gained almost 2 shots on approach and lost on the greens - unlikely that happens in back to back weeks with his putting history.
He’s played The Valero six times, results ranging from a MC in his first trip to a 4th a couple years ago. I would not back Hossler with too much exposure - I am betting him outright at 60/1 and skipping the finishing position bet. It’s boom or bust for a small wager on a guy I always planned to bet in Texas in 2024.
The last guy I am going to back is similar to Beau in approach being the weakest part of his game historically, Maverick McNealy.
Mav is a pretty interesting guy. He’s the son of Scott McNealy, a co-founder of Sun Microsystems. You’ve likely heard of this brand, they were an enormous player in the industry and were acquired by Oracle in 2010 for $7.4 billion. The sport is full of guys who grew up in very affluent communities with plenty of money - none of them are even close to the same stratosphere as the McNealy family.
Maverick was a skilled amateur golfer who almost did not become a pro golfer. After Stanford, he was 50/50 on golf vs business. He won The Haskins Award his senior year at Stanford, given to the best college golfer each year - skipping pro golf would have been unheard of for a Haskins Award winner and Mav eventually went that route. Throughout the past couple years of negotiations with PIF and other investors, every single post I have read describes McNealy as the smartest in the room. He was originally the player who made the case for pursuing US-based funding in parallel to the Saudi-based funding of PIF. None of this makes him a better golfer or more likely to win this week, but he’s just been an interesting character to learn more about as the whole ordeal progresses.
Last couple interesting things on Maverick before we talk about his golf game: he was dating LPGA star Danielle Kang for a while and has his pilot license. He’s flown himself to a few of the events on the West Coast. Totally fair if you read all of this and feel like anyone with a billion dollars can be cool, but Mav checks the box to me.
Now for his golf game. He missed a lot of 2023 with an injury and what he did play went terribly. Stats I pull from the last 6 months are capturing a bit of this, but I want to focus on the more recent and the more historical with him.
In 2024, Mav has played 9 events and missed only one cut (AMEX in January). He’s put up 3 Top 20 finishes and 2 Top 10. On the bad side, he has only gained on approach in one of these events. He finished 9th at The PLAYERS while losing 1 on approach, 13th at The Mexico Open while losing 2 on approach. It’s not good to struggle with irons, but finishing well while struggling with irons says the rest of your game is clicking.
As for history in Texas, he has played the Valero only one time, a 35th place in 2022. The unique thing about that event was that Mav gained 4.5 shots on approach, the 4th most of his career. Leading up to the event in 2022, he was gaining on approach in about half of his events, much better than current, so that’s definitely a risk. He somehow lost 2 shots putting that week in 2022, something that he does only about 10-15% of all events.
Pulling his best stats show plenty to be bullish about:
Texas History: 15th
Last 6 Months ARG: 6th
Slow Putting: 1st
Last 6 Months Opps: 17th
It’s going to take a return to the approach he had here a couple years ago and a more usual week from one of the strongest putters in the field, but the roadmap is there. From a more informal point of view, McNealy is playing really care-free golf right now and I like the form more than any part of the past few years for him. I played Mav outright at 66/1 and will add a finishing position bet on him as well.
With the outright budget and initial finishing position bets placed, it’s time to scan the board for other value
Noren and Aaron Rai make cut parlay - I’ve touched on Noren already, Aaron Rai played great last week and has a couple good finishes at Valero in the past. Both guys seem safe to finish well ahead of the cutline.
Harris English and Corey Conners make cut parlay - English is playing so steady, has not missed a cut since The Open last summer. Conners loves this course and has never finished worse than 35th in 5 trips. This is safe.
Matt Fitzpatrick over Tommy Fleetwood - Fitz seems to be trending in the right direction but Tommy has shown no signs of form. Even if both at peak form, Fitz is the better player.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout over Tom Kim - I like Tom Kim a lot, but something is off. He had some bad finishes and a WD over the past month. Bez meanwhile has been a portrait of consistency. Kim better overall, Bez better right now.
Bets of The Week
I covered my favorite guys this week above, but listing all of my plays below. For anyone who missed it, a post on my unit allocation strategy can be found via this link. You will need to decide what you want to get out of golf betting before you deploy a strategy, but as long as you are doing it responsibly, it’s going to be fun.
Editor’s Notes: Since I wrote that strategy post above, I have decided to stop playing First Round Leader bets. Also, unless otherwise noted, all finishing position bets will pay ties in full (MGM or Bet365).
Outrights
Billy Horschel (40/1) - risk .50u to win 20u (Fanduel)
Hideki Matsuyama (21/1) - risk .90u to win 18.90u (Bet365)
Beau Hossler (60/1) - risk .30u to win 18u (Bet365)
Maverick McNealy (66/1) - risk .30u to win 19.80u (MGM)
Top 10
none
Top 20
Hideki Matsuyama - risk 1u to win 1u (Bet365)
Alex Noren - risk 1u to win 1.50u (MGM)
Billy Horschel - risk 1u to win 1.60u (MGM)
Top 40
Maverick McNealy - risk 1u to win 1.10u (MGM)
Make Cut Parlay
Alex Noren, Aaron Rai - risk 1u to win 1.06u (Fanduel)
Harris English, Corey Conners - risk 1u to win 1.05u (Fanduel)
Head to Heads
Fitzpatrick over Fleetwood - risk 1u to win .74u (Caesars)
C-Bez over Tom Kim - risk 1u to win .91u (Bet365)
Bet of the Week is going to be Hideki Top 20 at even odds. He’s among the class of the field and coming in with great form. Of course Hideki is always the most likely to WD with no explanation, but this feels safe.
Closing Thoughts
Really strong field for this year’s lead up to Augusta. The Valero has provided first time winners in the past, will be interested to see if we can get another even with the field. The other thought here is around Masters odds - if you want to bet Aberg for that event, it might make sense to get that bet in now in case he wins this week. His odds for Augusta will not get a lot longer even if he does terrible in Texas, yet would shrink considerably if he is coming off a win. This same thinking will apply to Brooks Koepka or the other LIV stars as well.
Outside of PGA, we have a couple of other golf events. First off, LIV Miami at Doral. This course hosted their end of season event in 2023 but was moved on the schedule to have their toughest course the week before Augusta. The thinking around that came from their players wanting to be in the best form possible for majors, even if it leaves a gap for their end of year schedule. Knowing this course is harder than the average LIV event, I think we need to choose a couple stars from the top section of the betting board. I’m tempted by Koepka, but I think the guys to back are Bryson and Dustin Johnson. Doral favors distance more than most courses, so Bryson is a fit. DJ has an insanely good history at this course from back in the mid 2010’s when it hosted a WGC event.
On the LPGA side, we have their Match Play event at Shadow Creek in Vegas. It’s a beautiful course we have seen host PGA events as well, so that’s a nice setting for this. Their match play is trying a weird format this year - 3 rounds of stroke play will determine which 8 women enter the bracket for old fashioned match play. I suggest changing strategies when betting match play, but this mix makes this tougher. Nelly Korda is not worth the price even though she will likely make the top 8. Instead, I looked a bit further down the board and found four options to like: Yuka Saso (30/1, long hitter could be good if in top 8), Carlota Ciganda (30/1, great form), Leona Maguire (35/1, match play bulldog from Solheim Cups), and Maja Stark (65/1, just coming off a great event for her). If I had to pick only one, it would be Leona.
That will do it! Next week we’re going to have an extra post from Ziggy Golf on Masters trends. We’ll of course still have the usual preview on Monday and data on Wednesday, just adding a little extra for my favorite event in sports. If anyone has questions on any of the golf happening this week or Augusta next week, you know where to find me. Until next time, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy