The PLAYERS Data and Betting Advice
The PLAYERS Data and Betting Advice
Hoping to actually pick a WINNER
We previewed the course on Monday, so we know what to look for. Now we can pull our data and identify the best guys to consider this week.
Order of Email:
Model Details and Results
Betting Process
My Own Personal Plays
Email is a bit long, I would suggest opening in browser for best viewing (button above the title on top right of your email). For anyone who wants quick access to the downloadable model, it can be found here as well as within the post below.
Statistical Model Theory
For any new readers, I use the same thinking each week when we crunch the numbers - the majority of this post will be details on how I form the models, then we’ll talk over the results of each as we go. An old post explaining these stats can be found here.
Going back to my usual strategy of making 4 types of model, I am using the following weights this week:
20% Form Fit - We are always going to want to factor in ‘Current Form’ in some way; this category will usually look at the last 12 rounds over the last 2 months
30% Course Fit - This category factors in course history, comparable course history, as well as other characteristics of the course
30% Skill Fit - Similar to Course Fit, this category looks more at the skillset required to compete; could also call this category ‘Scoring Fit’
20% Safety Fit - This category is used to reward safer plays in our overall model score; heavily used in majors
TPC Sawgrass ‘Fit’ Models
Now we’re going to look at what was included in each category of our overall model:
Form Fit
We’re putting more emphasis on recent approach than usual even. If you based your bets on one column of this entire sheet, that’s the one I would use. More practically, start with this - guys need to be clicking with their irons to win this, basically every rend and common sense element confirms.
Reigning champion Scottie Scheffler brings in the best form, fresh off his dominant win at Bay Hill. There is not a lot to say against Scottie, if he can keep up the decent putting, he wins this just like he did last year. The price is insanely short for an event with water on every hole though, so I won’t be betting real money on someone at 6/1. If you are in pools of any kind, he makes a lot of sense with the biggest purse of the season.
After another strong week, I think it’s safe to consider Will Zalatoris back. In his last two events, API and Genesis (both elevated events), he gained over 7 shots tee-2-green and was mildly positive with the putter. His career is parallel to Scheffler’s in the fact that their ball striking is beyond elite and it’s just short game that has held back their full potential. Now Willy is using the broomstick putter and it’s showing good results. I’d normally like Zalatoris on a tougher/longer course, but he is really an interesting play this week, so possible we look his way for the first time in over a year.
If any name surprises above on first glance, it’s Andrew Novak. He definitely does not have the long-term pedigree of most of the chart, but his recent form is right up there. 9th at The Cognizant, 8th at The Mexico Open, and 8th at The WM showcase where the stats above are pulled from. Even with the form, I don’t see myself playing Novak outright. From a DFS point of view, he’ll be popular, but an easy add at a low cost. Form has been more important than anything else at Sawgrass, so I don’t think a missed cut is likely.
Course Fit
This is going to look at Pete Dye history more than anything. His courses all fit into a positional, second-shot mentality. No one can overpower them, though distance will help on par 5’s as it always does. The comparable courses are mostly similar courses and Florida courses. Lastly, a slight nod to the likely wind in store this week.
Justin Thomas was the first name I had in mind going into the week. He’s won at Sawgrass before and has played well on all Pete Dye courses - this makes sense, he’s always been an approach guy first and foremost. I’ve seen enough to believe in his form in 2024 as well, six of his last seven events saw a Top 20 finish. If there is something not to like, it’s the price and popularity of this play. He’s listed at 20/1 at open and based on how many others I have seen backing him, I could see that moving shorter. Still, he’s my top consideration before I look at all the options.
Next on the list is Keegan Bradley. Of the past five trips to Sawgrass, Keegan has four Top 20 finishes and one MC. While course history can be a bit variable, that’s a great run. Then we see he has also performed well on Pete Dye courses, makes sense with a similar profile to JT above. Recent results are a bit more mixed than someone I’d like to back outright, good DFS option though and someone I would not be against betting if he’s a guy you play often. I personally prefer to wait for Bent greens and anything further north.
When I wrote the post for last week, I said we’d likely back Tommy Fleetwood again all through Florida - not anymore. Really discouraging performance from Tommy, he had a 10 on a par 5, but honestly was missing the cut without that on the card. There is reason to believe he could bounce back strong at a course he has liked in the past, but I won’t get there. At 40/1, we are not getting much of a discount after last week, so we can find safer ways to use our budget.
Skill Fit
Keeping with the trend, we are focusing most on approach in Skill Fit this week. The greens are not pure Bermuda at this time of year, so we are looking at putting on any fast surface the past two years.
Eric Cole, coming off his enormous dud at The Cognizant and a 21st at The API, takes the top spot here. His numbers were outstanding before that terrible performance a couple weeks ago, but I don’t see myself trusting him again this week. He won’t be penalized for lack of distance and could theoretically get hot on these greens with decent approach play. It’s just too fresh in my mind to expect he could win at Sawgrass. I am not opposed to backing him in a matchup though.
You might know Cameron Young better, but Carson Young has also been playing some outstanding golf in 2024. He’s more of an accuracy guy than a distance guy, so the fit is pretty strong here. His best recent finish was an 8th in Mexico, pretty solid in the mid 30’s other than that. He’s also played Pete Dye pretty well in his young career. I won’t have any action on him to win, but would definitely be playing in DFS or in a matchup if we see options in his range.
Last guy for this section is the chalk of the week, Tom Hoge. The guy fits every trend this week too, I think it’s him and Scheffler who check every box. His form is crazy good: last 5 events saw 4 Top 20’s and 2 Top 10’s. Now we go to a course where he finished 3rd last year and should be thrilled at the approach-heavy demands. If Hoge can find his putter here and there, he’ll be contending. My only fear is how chalky he is - on Monday, he was far and away the most bet option.
Safety Fit
Recent winners have all been scrambling well when they reached Sawgrass, so we have some decent weight on ARG and Bogey Avoidance. I’ve included Par 5 for more of a ‘high floor’ thinking and Fairways to reward the more accurate players who are less likely to find water off the tee.
Doug Ghim is kind of the cheap version of Tom Hoge. His form is great and his approach play has always been his strength. The last four events have seen all four Top 20 finishes where he is gaining at least two shots on approach. He’s also gaining OTT, which means his accuracy is strong right now as he is not a long hitter. He’ll be less chalky than Hoge by a lot, available at double or even triple the odds, so I would encourage considering him. If I have room in the outright budget, it will likely go Doug’s way - if not then a finishing position bet seems wise.
Last guy for the models, Ryo Hisatsune. I have written about him a couple times so far this year, up-and-coming Japanese star. I don’t think he can win an event this big at this stage of his career, but the fit is really good. I’ll take a look at his finishing position odds as a potential stand-alone play, certainly would play in DFS with the potential being so high.
Total Fit
Lastly, we combine everything above into our Total Fit Score:
No surprise, Scottie Scheffler takes this one quite easily. His putting on fast surfaces score was 131st, that’s really the only thing holding him back from being even further ahead. Now, odds are obviously reflecting this, so it’s hard to say there’s much to action on this revelation of Scheffler being a good golfer.
For anyone interested, you can view the entire model in a Google Sheet format here. If you ever run into questions working with the sheet, just let me know - I am hoping some have valued this, as I think it’s one of the things that will make Ziggy Golf unique from a lot of the articles and picks you can find elsewhere online.
How I Came to My Bets
I often start my bets with my favorite guy in the event, usually the shortest odds play of the week - logical, good golfers are priced short. This week, however, we’ll be opening with someone at 100/1 that I could not wait to play again.
Keith Mitchell is being disrespected on the oddsboard in 2024. His form has been beyond stellar too, kind of weird he is not getting lines reduced through this run. Three straight Top 20’s, his best approach play ever in Mexico, and a career of good finishes in his home state of Florida - I’m just surprised, and grateful, that he is still found this far down the board.
Last we saw Keith, he was stumbling out of the players tent after a three hour delay in the final round of the Cognizant. That’s him above - we’ve all been there, feeling good on a golf course and an extra drink sounded perfect. He had 8 holes left to play and covered them at three under par to finish Top 10 for the event. I’m not saying Keith Mitchell drinks during his professional rounds of golf, but that certainly looks like any one of us during a Friday afternoon round.
Broadly, I like the vibes we are getting from Keith Mitchell. He’s as relaxed as ever, confident with his driver and clearly did some work with his irons. I love that we are seeing him back in his home state on greens where he has gained shots putting in four of his five trips. I know he’ll score on Par 5’s and the recent approach spike shows there’s potential for a run. If he keeps playing well, we’ll see his odds correct, but we can exploit them in the meantime.
I played Keith outright at 100/1 and will add a Top 40 bet at plus odds.
Now let’s get to the mid-range guys I like this week.
I’m looking at another Florida specialist with my second play of the week, same guy we were on at Bay Hill: Sam Burns.
Burns had some up-and-down play last week, at one time he was within a couple shots of the lead and then finished in 30th. The fear with Sam will always be his driver losing some control and finding water - that’s very dangerous at Sawgrass. However, the form has just stayed strong for too long for me to ignore him at 45/1.
He’s had a pretty mediocre history here so far: MC, 26th, 35th in that order. I would like to see better normally, but Sawgrass history is less important than most places (Scheffler career before winning last year was MC, 55th). With Burns we just get someone in good form and comfortable on fast greens. He’s among the best putters in this field, so if he can stay conservative with his driver and get some shots at birdies, I think he is very much live.
When we look at stats from other courses, Burns comes in 5th in comparables and 21st on Pete Dye tracks. He has the distance to score well on Par 5’s as well. I’m not looking finishing position bet with him this week, but played Burns outright at 45/1 for .40 units and will back him in a matchup bet.
After Burns, I had another familiar name for us in the same range: Shane Lowry.
Shane came up short for us at The Cognizant, finishing 4th. I was skeptical he could back that up at The API, an event he has struggled with the most of all Florida events, but he came in 3rd. We know from history that PLAYERS winners are often the guy with the hot hand - only Scheffler’s hands are hotter than Lowry’s right now.
Part of me does think this is chasing a win Lowry has not been able to get for some time. Lowry’s last PGA win came in 2019, and that was not even a PGA event, it was the British Open that year. Then he won the Euro BMW at Wentworth in 2022, one of Europe’s biggest events. So while he has not been winning a lot, he is still showing he is capable of winning on the biggest stages. The PLAYERS might not be the “5th major” anymore, but it’s still an enormous win in terms of prize and prestige.
At Sawgrass, he has finished 8th in 2021 and 13th in 2022 - good history. Most of my lean is based on recent form though. From a data point of view, Lowry ranks 19th on Pete Dye courses and 24th across all comparables. With the fit on Dye tracks and the recent approach play, there is just so much to like with Lowry (including the price).
I bet Shane Lowry outright at 40/1 for .45 units, will be skipping finishing position bets on him.
We’ve spent just over half our budget on outrights with the above three. Now I’d like to decide which shorter odds guy to back and how to best use the remaining budget.
Cutting to the chase, I am torn between Justin Thomas and Will Zalatoris at the top of the card. There are strong cases for both of them.
For Justin Thomas, he’s playing great golf right now. In his past 7 events, 6 of them saw finishes in the top 12. He’s been getting there gaining shots almost everywhere too. My issue is that none of those 7 events saw him actually in contention. He’s playing good enough to be on the board Sunday, but never threatening to win.
That’s a bit nit-picky I know, but if I am going to pay up for JT at 20/1, I would ideally like to know he can close under pressure. He has in the past, but we are pushing two years since that last happened.
For Zalatoris, we get a much better price at 33/1. His run of good form has been shorter, but arguable that he has actually been in contention each of his last two events (4th at API, 2nd at Genesis). Will is getting there with good driving and improved putting, but it’s the approach play for him really.
To help with this decision, I tried to think about a hypothetical world where JT and Zal are tied for the lead with no one near them going into the back nine on Sunday. Who would I rather have if the cards fell that way? The answer for me is Will Zalatoris.
So I am going to play Will Zalatoris outright at 33/1 for .55 units. I was underwhelmed by his finishing position odds, so I will skip that and place only the big market bet. For JT, I am not sure he will close out a win, but I do feel good with a Top 20 bet on him.
Going with Zalatoris over JT also means I have some remaining budget to spend. This leaderboard can get shaken up, so I want some shots on long-odds names I think have the overall pedigree to win an event this large.
I have .40 units left to spend as of now. Rather than picking one guy in the Burns-range, I am going to sprinkle this across a few guys. No shame in taking a safer option, but I was not that excited by anyone else in the 45-55/1 range.
Sungjae Im is someone I have followed pretty closely over his career. He has numbers that pop in a lot of ways. However, his form has been putrid for most of 2024. He got married and lost a lot of weight - both dangerous to the professional golfer. Last week at API was encouraging though: 18th place, gained shots in all four areas. I would not play him if the odds had not fallen this far, but the fit at Sawgrass is really good for his game when he is clicking. I played Sungjae at 90/1, would not go worse than 80/1.
Speaking of bad form, Billy Horschel is my next pick. He’s a Florida guy as well, so we’ll start with the putting - he will be comfortable in that area, so any potential with the rest of his game can come to fruition once he is putting. In his last start, The Cognizant, Billy came in 9th and gained a lot of shots ball striking. If we can mix that with a good putter, I think there is a chance for him. In 7 career PGA wins, 4 of them have come on Pete Dye courses - that’s as good as we’ll see. At 130/1, Horschel makes sense as a lottery ticket play.
Lastly, I will take a complete longshot and back Ryu Hisatsune at 350/1. He’s a young star in the making, not a long hitter, but a good iron and scrambling player. It would be shocking for him to win an event of this size, but it’s 2024 and shocking winners are what we have been getting. For Ryo, I am also adding a Top 40 bet.
With outrights now all placed and a handful of finishing position bets, I look for other ways to get exposure on guys I like this week. (Brief, I know this is a long one this week)
Scheffler Top 10 - juicy, but he’s too good to skip it this week
Doug Ghim Top 40 - I don’t see any chance of him actually winning, but the form and fit are very good for this price
Bezuidenhout over Rickie Fowler - this is more of a fade on Rickie, but Bez been playing consistent golf as well; favorite matchup of the week
Conners over Hadwin - Hadwin has been fine, but Conners is the better overall player and has better history
Burns over Day - good way to get exposure on Burns outside of outright market; Day been solid, but this is a mismatch in my opinion
Xander over Cantlay - two great golfers who cannot win, I just trust Xander’s form a bit more than Cantlay’s
Pendrith over Kitayama - this course does not suit Kurt’s game at all, expect he is a MC candidate; Pendrith the safer bet for a middling finish
Noren over Rose - Noren scored great in model (7th), Rose definitely did not (84th); nothing too complicated on this one, the data pointed me to it
Bets of The Week
I covered my favorite guys this week above, but listing all of my plays below. For anyone who missed it, a post on my unit allocation strategy can be found via this link. You will need to decide what you want to get out of golf betting before you deploy a strategy, but as long as you are doing it responsibly, it’s going to be fun.
Editor’s Notes: Since I wrote that strategy post above, I have decided to stop playing First Round Leader bets. Also, unless otherwise noted, all finishing position bets will pay ties in full (MGM or Bet365).
Outrights
Keith Mitchell (100/1) - risk .20u to win 20u (ESPN)
Sam Burns (45/1) - risk .40u to win 18u (Bet365)
Shane Lowry (40/1) - risk .45u to win 18u (Fanduel)
Will Zalatoris (33/1) - risk .55u to win 18.15u (Fanduel)
Sungjae Im (90/1) - risk .20u to win 18u (Fanduel)
Billy Horschel (133/1) - risk .15u to win 19.95u (Draftkings)
Ryo Hisatsune (350/1) - risk .05u to win 17.50u (Caesars)
Top 10
Scottie Scheffler - risk 1u to win .72u (Bet365)
Top 20
Justin Thomas - risk 1u to win 1.10u (MGM)
Top 40
Keith Mitchell - risk 1u to win 1.15u (MGM)
Doug Ghim - risk 1u to win 1.30u (Bet365)
Ryo Hisatsune - risk .50u to win .90u (MGM)
Make Cut Parlay
none
Head to Heads
Bezuidenhout over Rickie Fowler - risk 1u to win .80u (Bet365)
Corey Conners over Adam Hadwin - risk 1u to win .83u (Draftkings)
Sam Burns over Jason Day - risk 1u to win .87u (ESPN)
Xander over Cantlay - risk 1u to win .87u (ESPN)
Taylor Pendrith over Kurt Kitayama - risk 1u to win .91u (Fanduel)
Alex Noren over Justin Rose - risk 1u to win .87u (Fanduel)
Bet of the Week is going to be Keith Mitchell Top 40. I love the guy, just scroll up to see his picture leaving the players tent a couple weeks ago and you will too. His form is great, he loves Florida courses, and we get a fair price at plus odds.
Closing Thoughts
The PLAYERS is the only golf event of relevance this week, perfect for The PGA’s vision of what this should be. It’s likely the most exciting event on the year so far, easily beaten by The Masters in a month. They’ve gone away from referring to this as ‘The 5th Major’ like they used to, it’s still important though. Obviously, losing a lot of the bigger names to LIV did hurt that moniker’s validity some.
Editor’s Note: I am about to get a bit rant-y below, not gambling related…
Also happening the week of this event is PGA Commissioner Jay Monahan’s ‘State of the Tour’ press conference. Jay is about as unlikable as a sports figure gets right now, but his speech was something Biden and Trump could take notes on. He was on stage for a full hour and really did not say or answer anything. Words were said, many in full sentences, just zero substance to be found.
Merging with PIF? Doing something towards uniting the game? How will the influx of US cash change things? Basically, Jay explained it’s complicated and not much else. He tried to deflect the topic towards the fan experience, another blight of the current Tour. Jay addressed that the televised coverage is too commercial-heavy, that the season goes too long into the Fall, and that the Tour Championship format does not make sense. When pushed to address how The Tour plans to address these known shortcomings, he pretty much just said fans are important.
I know I could sound like an old man yelling at clouds on this topic, but it frustrates me to no end. It’s cynical to say, but the PGA Tour does not actually care about the fan experience. The new influx of money will not be used to lower the volume of commercials - if anything they will increase. PIF is not investing in golf to return a profit, the US investment group undoubtedly will be. That dichotomy is the root of why PIF is unlikely to lose this fight, and as long as it goes on we will have to deal with the ‘good guys’ of the PGA Tour talking out of both sides of their mouths.
Jay Monahan needs to be replaced by someone more fit for this fight and/or the merger needs to accelerate. As long as he is there, I do not see The PGA Tour making any traction towards actually improving this product. Players no longer trust him after his covert about-face with Yasir Al-Rumayyan on MSNBC last year (if you have not started Full Swing season 2, they cover this really well in the first two episodes). So we have a guy who the labor/players do not trust, one who does not seem fit to negotiate with PIF based on his history. Why would he still be in charge? One would assume the powers that be (read: money) appreciates how accommodating he is. Fine, but this is short-sighted. Tiger is not walking through that door to save The PGA this time and I fear we are not moving in any direction right now.
As soon as we are watching golf, these concerns seems to be replaced by thoughts of where my bets are located on the leaderboard and who is going to win. The same happened with football and head injuries a decade ago - we forget about the horrors of Junior Seau and Rashaan Salaam (2nd example for the writer, you know more of these cases) when we see the action on the field. But the NFL did something about it, or at least strived to and made some progress. With the NBA in the 90’s, they felt fans wanted more scoring, so they tweaked the rules a bit. The list of sports adjusting to fit the demands of the fan could go on longer. However, The PGA seems content to do nothing until it’s too late, and now we are where we are. The hubris of the game has never been as detrimental as the past decade.
Alright, enough about that. I hope you all have gotten out onto the course or range at least once by now - if the weather is no good this weekend where you are, watch The PLAYERS. We should get either an exciting finish or a Scottie run-away, hoping for the former. If anyone has questions on bets, wants advice on pools, or simply wants to agree with how screwed up professional golf is right now, you know where to find me.
Next week we’ll be back to cover the final event of The Florida Swing, the Valspar. Until then, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy