Rocket Mortgage Data and Betting Advice
Go Rickie Go
We previewed the course on Monday, so we know what to look for. Now we can pull our data and identify the best guys to consider this week.
Order of Email:
Model Details and Results
Player Profiles
My Own Personal Plays
Email is a bit long, I would suggest opening in browser for best viewing (button above the title on top right of your email). For anyone who wants quick access to the downloadable model, it can be found here as well as within the post below.
Statistical Model Theory
For any new readers, I use the same thinking each week when we crunch the numbers - the majority of this post will be details on how I form the models, then we’ll talk over the results of each as we go. An old post explaining these stats can be found here.
Going back to my usual strategy of making 4 types of model, I am using the following weights this week:
35% Form Fit - We are always going to want to factor in ‘Current Form’ in some way; this category will usually look at the last 12 rounds over the last 2 months
20% Course Fit - This category factors in course history, comparable course history, as well as other characteristics of the course
30% Skill Fit - Similar to Course Fit, this category looks more at the skillset required to compete; could also call this category ‘Scoring Fit’
15% Safety Fit - This category is used to reward safer plays in our overall model score; heavily used in majors
We’re putting way more focus on current form than course history this week. We do not have a ton of experience at Detroit GC and history has shown us both longshots and favorites win. I’d rather have someone in form than anyone with history here. Skill Fit comes second due to the need for distance and short proximity strengths.
Detroit Golf Club ‘Fit’ Models
Now we’re going to look at what was included in each category of our overall model:
Form Fit
The driving test and ARG needs are both on the easy side this week, so reducing those weights. I want to see the guys who have been putting the best and setting themselves up for birdies with their approach play. We’ll get into more driving stats in the Skill and Safety Fits.
The hottest golfer of the past month is Scottie Scheffler - hottest in the field for Detroit though is without a doubt Rickie Fowler. Since the missed cut at the PGA Championship, he’s rattled off finishes of 6th, 9th, 5th, and 13th. That’s the form of someone putting all aspects together. Spoiler: I did bet Rickie outright, so I’ll say more on him in a later section.
Adam Schenk scores second highest. When I pull the last 12 rounds, we’re seeing his 2nd in the Schwab and 7th in the Memorial - great finishes. However, his last two are both missed cuts in The US Open and Travelers. Even in those MC’s, he was gaining shots on approach. I’m torn on what to do with him on the betting card, if he had one of those last two cuts I would be more bullish. I definitely would add as a DFS option though.
Last week Chez Reavie entered the final round in the final group, then lost his impossibly good putting. He came off a 25th in Canada before this 4th place finish. With that form, you could be tempted to add him to the outright options - however, I am skipping him. The tests in Canada and River Highlands are so different from this one - mainly, accuracy won those and distance will be needed here. I could see considering him in DFS as a cheap option, but would steer clear betting.
Course Fit
We’re going low on the Detroit GC history value, putting more emphasis on performances across all easy courses the past year. For comparable courses, I am also including mostly easy tests, almost exclusively some other TPC courses where the winning score passes -20.
Lastly, I have everyone’s performance on other Donald Ross courses when it comes to putting. This event will be won on the greens, so it might help to know who has done well rolling the rock on other Ross designs.
We were on Tom Kim outright last week to no avail. The form has shown some small glimpses of coming together the past couple weeks, so I don’t regret that bet to be honest. This week though, not adding Tom in any capacity. He’s no long off the tee, so he’ll need his mid irons to be firing if he has a chance here. Putting has been spotty, so I don’t have a lot of confidence in him even if those irons are on.
It feels like it’s been a long time since we bet Sungjae Im in any capacity. I’m closer to looking his way than the past couple weeks, still cannot recommend him in any market. That trip back to Korea for The Korean Open a couple months ago looks more and more like the issue - since then, he’s missed 3 out of 5 cuts and finished no better than 29th. I’ll root for him every week, but until we see more sustained top 20 performances from him, it’s a total skip.
Defending champion Tony Finau is in the field. You can see above he’s been great on easy scoring courses the past year, makes sense since it’s where all his wins come from. He’s played five times since his most recent win in Mexico, all of them finishes outside the top 20. He’s a great player with a high floor, I just do not think he warrants being the outright favorite over Fowler. I’ll likely include Tony in a Top 40 parlay, but nothing else for me.
Skill Fit
Simple and straightforward approach to the Skill Fit this week. Distance is the OTT skill I’ll value the most, then we have approach and short proximity range.
Just like above, putting will matter more than usual, so we are including total putting in 2023 in the model. We have high weight on recent putting in Form, Ross putting in Course, now total putting in Skill. We’ll include one more putting metric in our Safety Fit as well.
Max Homa scores well in any stat profiles that consider all of 2023. In the first quarter of the year, his name could have been mentioned with Rahm and Scheffler - since then, his name belongs more around Scott Stallings and Harris English. He’s just been a much worse player since leaving the West Coast swing, kind of living up to his career reputation. I am not going to fade him, just an easy skip for me on someone with odds only a little longer than Fowler’s.
If Thomas Detry ends up winning this week, I’ll be a little annoyed with myself for not betting him. I love his game and think he should contend more than he does on the PGA Tour. I had to make cuts with the outright strategy this week since we’ll have one favorite and a few longshots - Detry was last man left out. He’s a well-balanced talent though, definitely suggest you add him in a DFS lineup if you are not betting him.
Editor’s Note: Harris English withdrew after writing this post; he was a bet, so his exposure has been re-used on Thomas Detry and Justin Suh.
Safety Fit
Out final putting stat this week is looking at 5-10 foot putting. For whatever reason, that range shows an uptick in importance in Detroit. I won’t use it as a deal-breaker for anyone, more of a good way to decide between two options.
The other categories are looking to highlight birdie makers who thrive on Par 5’s. Good Drives refers to any drive where you hit the fairway or a GIR - not as important as Distance this week, but should help highlight who adds accuracy with their distance.
Going into the week, I felt like I should include one of the top five favorites since that range has won half of the events at Detroit GC. That led me immediately to a decision between Fowler and Justin Thomas. I personally am betting on Fowler between then, but you could do a lot worse than JT here. He’s showing signs of getting back on track after The Travelers, it’s just less of a sample size than Rickie. JT can be had at longer odds, just not long enough to tempt me to include him in outright betting. If you want more exposure than me this week, including JT Top 20 at plus odds feels pretty good.
I mentioned Taylor Moore on Monday along with JT and Rickie. Taylor’s odds opened much shorter than I was targeting, so you won’t see him included in plays. The play looks somewhat safe with his 5-10 foot putting prowess and birdie gaining. However, his recent finishes (three straight MC’s) mean this is not as safe as year-long data implies. I’m really only mentioning him since I did on Monday - he’s a skip for us.
Along with Detry, Justin Suh just missed making the cut of my outright bets. He will be a FRL bet for some exposure though. Suh has been getting it done with his short game all year, hence the good look for him in Detroit. Over his last 11 events, he’s gained strokes putting in all of them. He lacks distance and is not the approach player I typically like to back. I’m including in FRL in case he has a spike round on Thursday - I just have doubt he can do what he needs to across four days to actually win.
Editor’s Note: Harris English withdrew after writing this post; he was a bet, so his exposure has been re-used on Thomas Detry and Justin Suh.
Total Fit
Finally, we combine all of these together with the weights from the top section:
Pretty Rickie takes the top spot in the Total Fit. I’ve commented on him a few times through this post, both alone and in comparison to other short-odds options. Sometimes the obvious plays are for suckers, sometimes they just need to be played - my hope is that this is one of the latter options.
The most surprising name towards the top here is Mark Hubbard. Yes, there is a huge drop off from 2 to 3 above, but beating Finau, Sungjae, and Tom Kim does still grab my attention. I’ll say more about Hubbard in the next section, he is one of my plays and available at insanely long odds for his form (two Top 10’s in last four events).
For anyone interested, you can view the entire model in a Google Sheet format here. If you ever run into questions working with the sheet, just let me know - I am hoping some have valued this, as I think it’s one of the things that will make Ziggy Golf unique from a lot of the articles and picks you can find elsewhere online.
Guys to Play
After looking over our model(s) and factoring in news and other off-course considerations, I have the below guys in mind across our bets:
Rickie Fowler
We’ve tipped Rickie in these pages multiple times this year, especially in finishing position bets. He’s paid off in that market, not yet in the outright winner though. I believe that changes this week.
Part of the hurdle for Fowler’s win has been the events he plays in. Over his last 12 events, 10 of them were designated events or majors. In those two lessor events, he took a 6th (Schwab) and 10th (Valero). We saw a similar trajectory with Jason Day earlier this year - rattle off a bunch of top 20’s in bigger events, win a smaller one.
Enter the Rocket Mortgage. I’d like if Fowler had a bit more distance of course, but he’s actually 31st in this field in driving distance. More importantly, that putter of his is on fire. I didn’t play him at all last week for fear of a letdown spot after US Open week. He came in 13th, so I feel like he’s riding the momentum. I’m playing him Top 20 and outright.
Editor’s Note: I played this at 17/1 but would play down to 14/1. If you use Draftkings, they have a +300 boost as a free bonus, ideal for this bet.
Ludvig Aberg
If you don’t yet recognize this name, get ready to. Ludvig Aberg was the top European amateur in the world starting in 2021 and the world’s top amateur by last Fall. He’s Swedish but attended Texas Tech for college. Earlier this year he was given his PGA Tour card after finishing atop the PGA Tour University leaderboard.
So he’s a Tour rookie, but has so much experience. He’s been playing international events since he was 17 (23 now) and has two wins on the Swedish Golf Tour. He’s started his PGA career in earnest in 2023, though the month of June has been his true debut of regular appearances. In those, he has finished 25th in the Canadian and 24th in the designated Travelers. He gained a ton of shots OTT in both events.
In Aberg we have a ton of distance off the tee. For how accurate he’s been with the driver this month as well, I think that’s where he finds his biggest edge this week. Anyone will need to sink putts to win the Rocket Mortgage, so that’s a variable we’ll have to accept. He’s not a bad putter by reputation, it’s just more of an unknown than his ball striking.
You’ll see this name tipped lots of places this week. I grabbed him at 60/1 on Monday but would play all the way down to 40/1. In addition to that, I like his chances at Top 40, could even pursue Top 20 for plus odds if you wanted more exposure.
Austin Eckroat
Another recent college star, Eckroat went to Oklahoma State and was on the same team as Viktor Hovland and Matt Wolff. His climb to the PGA was not quite as fast as Aberg’s, but the 24 year old has made quick work of getting there compared to most. He doesn’t have the distance of Aberg either - he’ll get it done with his irons more than his driver.
It’s hard to find many golfers running as hot as Eckroat right now, definitely very few at his odds as well. The run for Austin really goes back 5 events now:
Byron Nelson: 2nd
Schwab: 16th
Memorial: 30th
US Open: 10th
Travelers: 24th
After the first two, those are all big-boy fields where he was finishing well. Across those five events, he is gaining 2 shots on approach and over 2 shots putting per event. With this form, I was shocked to see him listed at 90/1 Monday morning. That price has drifted, but I would play him down to 60/1. We’ll add a Top 40 play on him just like Aberg as well.
Mark Hubbard
Our next guy is far from a rising star like the last two. Hubbard has been playing professionally since 2012 with a lot of ups-and-downs. He has earned and lost his Tour card multiple times, this is his third stint at the top level. For an event where we could see a random winner, this felt like great value.
Over the course of his career, Hubbard has gotten it done mostly with the putter. He’s a plus putter on every surface but shows the biggest advantage on Bent and Poa - this week is supposedly a mix of the two, so I like this long-term angle. The difference in his recent form is that he’s been doing it with his irons. Mark lacks bomber distance, but check out these stats on approach in the non-elevated events he’s played:
Canadian: 8.8 on approach, finished 6th
Schwab: 7.3 on approach, finished 9th
Mexico: 7.3 on approach, finished 19th
His elevated event performances were not awful, just not as glowing. With the course being easier and the field weaker, I am hopeful that Hubbard can keep up his iron play. Then if he gets enough looks at birdies, I trust his putting similar to Harris English’s. I’m playing Hubbard at 125/1, would play down to 100/1. He’ll be the third and final Top 40 bet as well to go along with Aberg and Eckroat in that market.
Sam Bennett
Last guy is another young up-and-comer. You likely recognize Sam Bennett from The Masters, where he was paired with Rahm and Koepka on his magical run to a top 20 finish. CBS got it’s money’s worth out of his story that week too - the tattoo on his arm is a quote from his late father, reading “Don’t wait to do something”.
I first became aware of Bennett last summer as he was turning heads at the US Amateur. He would go on to win the event, becoming the first Texas A+M player to do so. The talking points that week were about Bennett’s skills, but also about his pace of play and overall confidence. He’s as slow as Cantlay on the course, as full of himself as Koepka. He’ll try any shot and genuinely believes he is the best in the world - that attitude can seem cocky, but really it’s necessary to rise to the top of your profession in my opinion.
I like the idea of having a lottery ticket on Bennett, but do not treat him like Aberg or Eckroat - those are much safer plays in my mind, worthy of finishing position bets. Bennett shows too much volatility for those markets in my mind, but would definitely play in DFS as a cheap addition. I bet Sam at 140/1, would play down to 120/1.
Editor’s Note: Harris English withdrew after writing this post; he was a bet, so his exposure has been re-used on Thomas Detry and Justin Suh. These bets were placed too late to have to write up previews on each of them.
Bets of The Week
I covered my favorite guys this week above, but listing all of my plays below - now on legal books! For anyone who missed it, a post on my unit allocation strategy can be found via this link. You will need to decide what you want to get out of golf betting before you deploy a strategy, but as long as you are doing it responsibly, it’s going to be fun.
Outrights
Rickie Fowler (16/1) - risk 1u to win 16u (Bet365)
Ludvig Aberg (60/1) - risk .25u to win 15u (Draftkings)
Justin Suh (85/1) - risk .18u to win 15.30u (Bet365)
Austin Eckroat (90/1) - risk .20u to win 18u (Pointsbet)
Thomas Detry (100/1) - risk .16u to win 16u (Bet365)
Mark Hubbard (125/1) - risk .12u to win 15u (Pointsbet)
Sam Bennett (140/1) - risk .09u to win 12.60u (Bet365)
First Round Leader (FRL)
Ludvig Aberg (66/1) - risk .06u to win 3.96u (Rivers)
Nicolai Hojgaard (70/1) - risk .06u to win 4.20u (Rivers)
Gordon Sargeant (70/1) - risk .06u to win 4.20u (Rivers)
Mark Hubbard (80/1) - risk .05u to win 4u (Rivers)
Austin Eckroat (80/1) - risk .05u to win 4u (Rivers)
Justin Suh (80/1) - risk .05u to win 4u (Rivers)
Sam Bennett (80/1) - risk .05u to win 4u (Rivers)
Thomas Detry (80/1) - risk .04u to win 3.20u (Bet365)
Kevin Yu (90/1) - risk .04u to win 3.60u (Bet365)
Akshay Bhatia (100/1) - risk .04u to win 4u (Rivers)
Top 10
none
Top 20
Rickie Fowler - risk 1u to win .95u (Bet365)
Top 30
none
Top 40
Austin Eckroat - risk 1u to win .95u (Fanduel)
Ludvig Aberg - risk 1u to win 1.10u (Fanduel)
Mark Hubbard - risk 1u to win 1.50u (Fanduel)
Parlay: Finau and Hideki - risk 1u to win 1.09u (Bet365)
Head to Heads
Winning Score -22 or better (Under 266.5) - risk 2u to win 1.28u (Fanduel)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout over Beau Hossler - risk 1u to win 1.05u (Caesars)
Brandon Wu over Lee Hodges - risk 1u to win .88u (Rivers)
Round 1: Adam Svensson over Troy Merritt - risk 1u to win .71u (Draftkings)
Round 1: Tony Finau over Keegan Bradley - risk 1u to win .83u (Draftkings)
Round 1: Brendon Todd over Scott Stallings - risk 1u to win .80u (Bet365)
Bet of the Week is Ludvig Aberg Top 40. He’s a rare talent - the early reviews from people I follow is that you can tell when it’s Aberg hitting it by the sound alone. That type of ball striking commentary is rare, usually reserved for Scheffler and Zalatoris. I don’t see a collapse here for Aberg - a win is more likely than a missed cut in my mind, so the Top 40 bet at plus odds feels like a gift.
Additionally, if you have access to bet on the winning score, I believe we blow past -22 as the winning score, so that’s a 2u bet for me. I could only find that listed on Fanduel, but could be on offshores as well. If line moved to -23, it’s still a 2u bet for me.
Closing Thoughts
With the rain Detroit has seen this week, I’m expecting this to be among the easiest tests of the year. Guys will have no problem hitting wide fairways and then start target practice at receptive greens. Even when it’s dry, pros eat this course up. Now add easier approach play and we’re looking at even more of a putting contest.
Unfortunate that Harris English withdrew after I wrote these sections and placed my bets. It does mean I don’t need to pass on some of the guys I was passing on, but apologies for the disjointed nature of the post with the late WD on one of my bets.
That will do it! There is a chance I attend this event in person, we’ll see about my schedule and weather updates. Either way, it won’t be one of the more marquee events but can hopefully still provide some excitement Sunday.
I’ll be back next week to preview the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. Until then, best of luck with all your bets and let me know if I can help answer any questions around my data or the betting world as a whole.
Matt / Ziggy