RBC Heritage Data and Betting Advice
RBC Heritage Data and Betting Advice
The Most Famous Lighthouse in Golf
We previewed the course on Monday, so we know what to look for. Now we can pull our data and identify the best guys to consider this week.
Order of Email:
Model Details and Results
Betting Process
My Own Personal Plays
Email is a bit long, I would suggest opening in browser for best viewing (button above the title on top right of your email). For anyone who wants quick access to the downloadable model, it can be found here as well as within the post below.
Statistical Model Theory
For any new readers, I use the same thinking each week when we crunch the numbers - the majority of this post will be details on how I form the models, then we’ll talk over the results of each as we go. An old post explaining these stats can be found here.
Going back to my usual strategy of making 4 types of model, I am using the following weights this week:
20% Form Fit - We are always going to want to factor in ‘Current Form’ in some way; this category will usually look at the last 12 rounds over the last 2 months
30% Course Fit - This category factors in course history, comparable course history, as well as other characteristics of the course
30% Skill Fit - Similar to Course Fit, this category looks more at the skillset required to compete; could also call this category ‘Scoring Fit’
20% Safety Fit - This category is used to reward safer plays in our overall model score; heavily used in majors
Harbour Town ‘Fit’ Models
Now we’re going to look at what was included in each category of our overall model:
Form Fit
We’re seeing mostly ‘less than driver’ off the tee, so I’m lowering the value on OTT. Approach naturally gets more weight when this happens.
Hot Take: Scottie Scheffler is really good at golf. No, I mean really, really good at golf.
Obviously we all know this, you’ll see him dominate the charts this week. However, if there was ever a time to fade Scheffler, it’s right now. He looks unbeatable, but he had that huge win last week and the child coming soon, so I don’t see it this week for him.
Consider this - Scheffler won the 2022 Masters, then did not win again in 2022. Rahm won the 2023 Masters and is yet to win again. I know Scottie ust won for the 2nd time, but it clearly takes a toll on the winner of recent years - schedule changes and practice might be harder to get motivated for after reaching the summit. Whatever the reason, my hope is we see a small break in Scheffler winning events.
Young star Akshay Bhatia won a couple weeks ago in Texas, so makes sense to see him on this chart. He’s a true talent, one I expect to carve out a really good career with time. He’s likely not Aberg, but in the same class of who the next stars will be. I think he should be considered most weeks when accuracy is paramount - I could see the case for him here, but a lack of familiarity with Pete Dye courses is what ultimately kept me off him outright. With time, I could see him winning at Harbour Town, so I did find a matchup bet I liked with him.
Course Fit
I have a few somewhat overlapping metrics this week: history at Harbour Town, comparable short courses from the past two years, Pete Dye courses, and tee-2-green on any short course. I care more about history than current form on most Dye courses.
Brian Harman scores really well in the Course Fit this week. He’s an interesting case, like an obvious fit at some courses and a horrible guy to back at others. Anything Pete Dye tends to favor accuracy over distance, which is where we see Harman scoring well. He’s had the year of his career going back to The Open and I think he has the ability to actually win and not fold under pressure should he be leading Sunday. I have Harman on the shortlist to consider after seeing this chart above.
We have not seen Patrick Cantlay at his best in 2024. Really sluggish play from him and losing a ton of shots with his irons is odd to see. However, he played well at Augusta and is coming to his favorite course at the right time. His history here is pretty incredible: 3rd, 2nd, 3rd all logged within the past 5 years at Harbour Town. It’s hard to back him with the majority of his form being so bad this year, but the price offers him at cheaper than ever for this event. Torn on how to play him, but likely I place at least a Top 10 bet.
Sungjae Im has made a career on these shorter courses in the southeast - most years he would be a mid-20/1 bet here. However, Sungjae is broken. When he earned military exemption, got married, AND lost a bunch of weight this offseason, I was a bit concerned for how the changes would impact his play. Turns out they seem to be universally negative. Until we see a sustained run of decent finishes, I batch Sungjae with Tom Kim and Rickie Fowler in the ‘fade material’ bucket.
Skill Fit
Looking at a pretty standard approach range across the course and no need for distance. A handful of courses have Poa Trivialis this time of year, so pulled a more specific putting history this week.
Nick Taylor has had a solid 2024. He won in Phoenix, a huge win for his career - more impressively, he has gained shots in approach in every event of this year. He’s not a long hitter, so he relies on iron and putter play for his scoring. Last year he won at his home country’s Open under a lot of pressure, so I really like how well he can close when in position. I don’t think I will get there in the betting market, but suggest using his price point in DFS as a guy with a lot of potential.
Scheffler has been the best golfer by a mile, but it’s Tom Hoge who actually has the best approach stats on the season. He’s driving it fine and putting better than usual - really it’s his putrid ARG game that costs him so much. In some of these, he is losing over 3 shots ARG, a crazy number for the area of the game you typically play the least shots. He’s leaving a 50 foot chip a good 20 feet short more often than not, putting pressure on the rest of his game. If you were only looking for a guy to smash irons, Hoge is the one - I can’t back him to win with greens this small no matter how good his approach has been.
The other longterm great approach player/bad putter on this chart is Corey Conners. Conners can definitely win this thing, he has a good history at Harbour Town and on any Dye courses really. When accuracy matters a lot, Conners seems to shine. He’s just such a consistently bad putter - Hoge has spike weeks where it clicks, but Conners does not seem to find those very often. Still, between him and Hoge, I would not be shocked to see either in the top 10. There are just a lot of reasons to be wary and I like other options better, so he’s DFS at most for me.
Safety Fit
Pretty usual stats this week, more of a need for accuracy off the tee compared to the usual look at Par 5 scoring.
Brendon Todd scores well in Safety Fit as usual. Still zero interest on him outright or in any betting capacity really, would suggest as a DFS play most weeks. He’s kind of like Sam Ryder in a lot of ways - both guys score better in data than they do in real life. If Todd were ten years younger, I would be interested as an up-and-comer, but for where he is in his career it’s hard to get excited about him.
A few weeks ago, Denny McCarthy chunked a wedge into water on a playoff hole against Akshay. After he played -8 on the back 9, the pressure clearly got to him as it has in the past. He has the game to thrive at Harbour Town, so I would feel great about him in a finishing position bet. It just feels like he’s not going to be able to close out a win on Tour after his series of close calls.
Total Fit
Lastly, we combine everything above into our Total Fit Score:
Not much of a surprise, Scottie Scheffler is the top dog. There’s no way to bet him this week though, someone else can win when his wife has their first child.
For anyone interested, you can view the entire model in a Google Sheet format here. If you ever run into questions working with the sheet, just let me know - I am hoping some have valued this, as I think it’s one of the things that will make Ziggy Golf unique from a lot of the articles and picks you can find elsewhere online.
How I Came to My Bets
To start with, I was never going to consider the top of the board at this event. Harbour Town does not have the demands of many elevated events - mostly, you don’t need to hit far to contend here. When that happens, the chances for everyone go up a bit and the cream of the crop has less of an edge. Scheffler is obviously the most talented guy in the field (the world to be honest), but it’s not a place his advantages will be as great. Additionally, I don’t see a way to bet on him right after he won the Masters and his kid is on the way.
As I move down the oddsboard, the two names I would consider here are Patrick Cantlay and Tommy Fleetwood. I did not want to only have two outright chances at Harbour Town, so need to pick one. Cantlay is a bit shorter and we have seen less consistent form from him - so it’s Tommy Time. Don’t get me wrong, Cantlay is a great option, his history demands he be considered; I will add a Top 10 bet on him as my exposure on the best ‘horse for the course’ historically.
For Fleetwood, we’re seeing a good little run for him right now: 3rd at Masters, 7th at Valero. The other side of my interest is his history at Harbour Town: 15th last year, 10th the year before that. The negative is that Fleetwood is yet to win an event on The PGA Tour. His global resume is outstanding though, so I have never been that scared off. Compared to guys like Denny McCarthy, I at least know Tommy has won in good fields at the highest level in different parts of the world.
I bet Tommy Fleetwood outright at 22/1, would go down to 20/1 but not lower, and I added a finishing position bet.
With the short-odds pick made, it’s time to scan the 40+/1 range for our other outright selections.
I bet Si Woo Kim on Monday when he was listed closer to 40/1 - those odds have moved, but I still like the play.
Si Woo is known as one of the best Pete Dye players of the past decade and a lot of his success has come on those courses. When I looked at only the last 36 rounds on Dye tracks, Si Woo came in 18th in the model, but scores way better if I expended the timeframe. The history at Harbour Town has been somewhere between mixed and poor so far, which is both puzzling and concerning - I am sticking to his form and more broad history though.
His other most encouraging stats line up for the test this week too:
Recent Approach: 12th
Short Course T2G: 11th
Fairways: 1st
ARG: 6th
We know he’ll be finding the fairway with proper angles, that’s why anyone who does well on Dye finds success. The approach and ARG games have been steadier than ever in 2024 as well, so I see a pretty high floor for Si Woo Kim this week. He has played 10 events in 2024 with only 2 of them having finishes outside the top 30 (zero missed cuts) - all of this is shaping up to him being a very viable option this week. In addition to the outright, I bet him to finish top 20.
The next guy I am backing is another one who has thrived on Pete Dye courses, Shane Lowry
If you look at my charts and/or the downloadable sheet, you will not see Lowry on there. He was a later add to the field and was not on the site when I pulled data on Monday. If he had been included, I am positive he’d finish in the top 10 of the Total Fit.
Lowry had a middling finish at Augusta, but was actually top in the field for approach stats. As often happens for him, the putter pulled his total scoring way down. That’s going to be the risk with Lowry every time he plays - for his price and form, it’s a worth risk taking.
I don’t have ShotLink data from Augusta, so that’s more anecdotal from groups who compiled it last week. Looking further back though, the guy has been so hot with his irons - I have his recent finishes before Augusta below, 2nd number is how much he gained on approach that week:
PLAYERS: 19th, 5.7 gained
API: 3rd, 4.2 gained
Cognizant: 4th, 6.3 gained
We’ll need him to make some putts for this to win. However, few courses will prioritize approach play this heavily and explains why guys like Si Woo and Lowry have so much success across the Pete Dye catalog. I played him outright at 55/1 and a Top 20 finishing position bet. With odds shifting, I would play this down to 40/1 but not lower.
The last guy I will back is mostly due to what budget I have left and wanting to find someone longer than 50/1 with real win equity: Brian Harman.
I’ll be brief with this one - Harman should not be this long of odds for Harbour Town. His last four trips here have seen 28th, 13th, 35th, 7th in that order. His recent results are very much up and down, but showing enough glimpses to know he’s not in a slump like JT or Spieth.
He finished 2nd in the Total Fit behind only Scheffler - grabbing his best stats easily explains why:
Pete Dye Courses: 1st
Short Course T2G: 1st
Poa Trivialis Putting: 2nd
Fairways: 12th
In Fleetwood we have a guy in great form with a good course fit. In Si Woo and Lowry we have excellent approach play with good Dye overlap. Harman adds more Dye overlap but mostly he adds the short game star to make the card feel well rounded across different skillsets that could prove most successful this week.
With the outrights and finishing position bets placed, time to look for matchups with an edge.
Clark over JT - something is definitely wrong with JT and I’m not sure what he needs to fix it; Clark MC’d at Augusta, but I am not worried about that, this is a huge mismatch.
Cam Davis over Sepp Straka - a play on Davis mostly, one of the guys I considered outright. He’s been in shaky form but played well last week, so looking to capitalize on a mismatch if Davis is rounding into form.
Bezuidenhout over English - fairly even, but Bez has just been better in all facets this year; like Davis, one I considered outright as well.
Akshay over Tom Kim - I loved seeing Tom play well Sunday, could be the start of him winning this week as the by far most chalky play. However, I am sticking to the formula on fading him for one more week.
Aberg over Rory - These guys are elite ball strikers, but Aberg is just better right now. He’ll win another PGA event soon and I’m not sure what Rory has going on after a really bad start to the season.
Cam Young over Morikawa - Morikawa contended last week literally out of no where. Just like Tom Kim, it will take more than one good week to ease my concerns of his game this year. Young on the other hand keeps putting up strong finish after strong finish.
Round 1: Harman over Sungjae - Was looking to fade Sungjae and get some more exposure on Harman, so this was a perfect fit for me. Sungjae is going in the wrong direction and Harman has a lot to like.
Bets of The Week
I covered my favorite guys this week above, but listing all of my plays below. For anyone who missed it, a post on my unit allocation strategy can be found via this link. You will need to decide what you want to get out of golf betting before you deploy a strategy, but as long as you are doing it responsibly, it’s going to be fun.
Editor’s Notes: Since I wrote that strategy post above, I have decided to stop playing First Round Leader bets. Also, unless otherwise noted, all finishing position bets will pay ties in full (MGM or Bet365).
Outrights
Tommy Fleetwood (22/1) - risk .85u to win 18.70u (Bet365)
Si Woo Kim (37/1) - risk .50u to win 18.50u (Bet365)
Shane Lowry (55/1) - risk .35u to win 19.25u (Fanduel)
Brian Harman (55/1) - risk .30u to win 16.50u (Bet365)
Top 10
Patrick Cantlay - risk 1u to win 1.65u (MGM)
Tommy Fleetwood - risk 1u to win 1.70u (Bet365)
Top 20
Si Woo Kim - risk 1u to win 1u (MGM)
Shane Lowry - risk 1u to win 1.15u (MGM)
Top 40
none
Make Cut Parlay
N/A - no cut
Head to Heads
Wyndham Clark over Justin Thomas - risk 1u to win .71u (Caesars)
Cam Davis over Sepp Straka - risk 1u to win 1.05u (Caesars)
Bezuidenhout over Harris English - risk 1u to win .83u (Draftkings)
Akshay Bhatia over Tom Kim - risk 1u to win .83u (Draftkings)
Ludvig Aberg over Rory McIlroy - risk 1u to win .91u (Draftkings)
Cam Young over Collin Morikawa - risk 1u to win 1u (Draftkings)
Round 1: Harman over Sungjae - risk 1u to win .80u (Fanduel)
Bonus: Corales Outright Bets
Backing a handful of guys I think can win on Tour someday for the secondary event:
Daniel Berger (45/1) - risk .24u to win 10.80u (Bet365)
Justin Suh (60/1) - risk .17u to win 10.20u (Fanduel)
Carl Yuan (65/1) - risk .16u to win 10.40u (Fanduel)
Chris Gotterup (80/1) - risk .13u to win 10.40u (Fanduel)
Parker Coody (110/1) - risk .10u to win 10.10u (Fanduel)
Carson Young (110/1) - risk .10u to win 10.10u (Fanduel)
Rico Hoey (100/1) - risk .10u to win 10u (Fanduel)
Bet of the Week is going to be Shane Lowry Top 20. His form has been steady and few guys are as proven on Pete Dye courses. We’ll see if he can actually close out a win or if that part of his career is behind him, but I do fully expect a good finish.
Closing Thoughts
It’s a shame they put this event the week right after Augusta. Harbour Town is a super cool course we can all play and usually drives a good finish with such an open ended question on what skillset is needed. Instead of showcasing the course and field, it’s going to feel like a letdown based on the schedule. This is like Ohio State playing Illinois in between Penn St and Michigan - it’s just natural for it to feel less important.
To double down, The PGA Tour has an alternate field event at Corales this week too. So almost everyone is playing somewhere and we can safely assume viewers have not had this week circled as must watch TV. I am fine with the alternate event, but wish Harbour Town had a bit more respectable spot on the schedule, just with a bit of buffer between it and the obviously more important ones.
Outside of The PGA events, we have the first LPGA Major, The Chevron. Nelly Korda might not actually ever lose a golf tournament again with how she’s playing - hard not to just back her, but the price is so unappealing at 5/1. If you do bet on this thing, no shame in just betting Korda for some interest to follow, she’ll be relevant on Sunday. For me, I am looking to back Lydia Ko and Brooke Henderson, both at 28/1 - they are stars of the LPGA and a bit cheaper than usual simply because of Nelly’s run. I am also adding Leona Maguire again at 40/1, as she came runner-up in the match play and should thrive in the tougher major conditions as her career progresses.
We’ll be back next week to preview one of the worst events of the season, The Zurich, a weird team/partner event. I don’t understand why we have that one in a standalone schedule spot - I also don’t understand how The PGA can cancel match play and keep this weird format no one likes. Still, we’ll soldier on with a preview and bets.
If anyone has questions or anything, you know where to get me. Otherwise, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy