PGA Championship Data and Betting Advice

Wanamaker a Winning Bet

We previewed the course on Monday, so we know what to look for. Now we can pull our data and identify the best guys to consider this week.

Order of Email:

1. Model Details and Results

2. Betting Process

3. My Own Personal Plays

Email is a bit long, I would suggest opening in browser for best viewing (button above the title on top right of your email). For anyone who wants quick access to the downloadable model, it can be found here as well as within the post below.

Statistical Model Theory

For any new readers, I use the same thinking each week when we crunch the numbers - the majority of this post will be details on how I form the models, then we’ll talk over the results of each as we go. An old post explaining these stats can be found here.

Going back to my usual strategy of making 4 types of model, I am using the following weights this week:

• 20% Form Fit - We are always going to want to factor in ‘Current Form’ in some way; this category will usually look at the last 12 rounds over the last 2 months

• 30% Course Fit - This category factors in course history, comparable course history, as well as other characteristics of the course

• 30% Skill Fit - Similar to Course Fit, this category looks more at the skillset required to compete; could also call this category ‘Scoring Fit’

• 20% Safety Fit - This category is used to reward safer plays in our overall model score; heavily used in majors

Valhalla ‘Fit’ Models

Now we’re going to look at what was included in each category of our overall model:

Form Fit

Looking pretty evenly at all areas of shots this week:

Pretty exciting form coming in for the elites of the field. Rory and Scottie win this chart, but I am going to talk about them and Brooks Koepka altogether here. Koepka does not score well due to LIV golf having no stats to speak of.

So we have the three best major golfers of the past decade all coming to this one fresh off a win. Scottie and Rory won elevated events and Koepka won LIV Singapore. We’re not going to debate which of these events was the least important, but Brooks coming in with confidence should scare everyone just a little. There are always favorites in any field, but rarely do they come in with this consistent of form across the top level.

Scheffler is priced crazy short - it’s reasonable though. I just cannot find a way to bet him this week when even a Top 10 is -200 or worse. The guy is the best, but it’s hard to find any exposure. I do question if he’ll be the exact same as his recent run due to the time away and the birth of his first child. For that reason, I am out. Rory and Koepka both present a more attackable level of odds in all markets. While Rory is a bit short, I think it’s a reasonable price. Koepka is priced right where he should be for this event.

Course Fit

I’m using stats around previous majors, hard courses, long courses, and Jack Nicklaus designs. Some of these will naturally overlap, but Valhalla has some obvious course comparables so I felt good with using these categories.

Collin Morikawa is not a long hitter by any means, yet he scores well on these hard courses. The guy has two majors to his name as well, so clearly he can win these big boy events. I’ve liked his play all year and could see a world where he wins this. However, I am still just being scared off by the lack of distance. Practice rounds Monday showed it was easier than expected to hit fairways, which would be opposite to his best chance at contention. If you’re a big Collin fan (really?) then I would place this bet - for me though, I think we have better options in his price range.

About the only LIV guy you’ll see in charts is Jon Rahm. Man has his game fallen off since joining LIV. He’s won exactly zero times since the 2023 Masters, kind of crazy for how good of golf he was playing leading up to that win. I love the price drifting to the 20/1 range on him and that alone makes him a consideration. Still, I can’t get there on feeling confident with him right now. The driving was always his biggest weapon, so that could be how he breaks out of his slump this week - I just would need to see more from him for me to have any exposure. I do expect he at least makes the cut, so expect him to be added to a make cut parlay as only possible time you see his name on the card.

Skill Fit

Obvious skills we want this week: long hitters, good putters. In approach play, we know long irons will be the norm, so we are weighting long range approach and overall APP from the past six months. Lastly, I used putting on all fast surfaces rather than narrow down to Bent.

I don’t think you could design a course better for Wyndham Clark. It’s a very similar layout to Quail Hollow last week, where Wyndham won in 2023. I had him on my shortlist when I worked ahead of last week, then saw him floundering all through the weekend in Charlotte. Other than Scottie, it’s possible Clark has been the best PGA player of 2024 - that last event took all the steam away in my eyes though. If he had mustered up a top 20, I’d be playing him this week. He’s not a bad option due to the skills lining up so well, just really needed to see more proof of the good form staying around.

Speaking of duds last week, Matt Fitzpatrick was objectively awful. He’s another guy I fully expected to bet this week, but no chance of that now. We saw in trends on Monday that your most recent event has a lot of indication of how someone will play in the PGA Championship - could not be less encouraging for Fitzy in this regard. His price has gotten crazy long for someone who won a major two years ago and an elevated event last year, so I am tempted to back long-term form with him moving forward. For now though, he’s a fade or a skip.

Safety Fit

Going to look at ARG and Bogey Avoidance from the last six months as our starting point. After that, I have scrambling in any major over the last five years and Par 5 play from this year. The Par 5’s are not sure-thing birdies this week, so I want guys who can still find a way to capitalize on scoring holes.

Hideki Matsuyama withdrew with almost no notice last week, typical for him. He’s a frustrating player to back due to how secretive any updates are. Hideki does not do interviews in English, so any reports are hard to come by - that being said, withdrawing from a guaranteed big purse implies it was not just for rest. I would like to back him, he’s been striping it all year, but if there are questions around his health then it’s just not worth it. I would avoid fading him though, always possible for him to contend or make a backdoor push on Sunday when he is feeling right.

Last guy I am covering is local boy Justin Thomas. JT was consulted for the course renovations in the years leading up to the event and is among the only native Kentuckians in the field. While he has played better in 2024, there is still something off with him in my eyes. We see stretches of -3 through 4 followed by +3 through 3. He’s still missing way too many five footers and is no longer the constant threat with his irons that he used to be. I do trust his chipping more than just about anyone, so if the course played incredibly difficult, there is a chance he contends due to scrambling on familiar grasses. I don’t see that being how it plays out though. I’ll root for him, but best to avoid backing him in my opinion.

Total Fit

Lastly, we combine everything above into our Total Fit Score:

Xander takes the top spot as per usual. Last week at Quail was the most ‘Xander’ event I have ever seen - play exquisite golf up until the point it really mattered, then fade away from the lead. Rory was playing lights out, but there is no way to bet Xander Schauffele after seeing that Sunday back 9 appear so lifeless.

For anyone interested, you can view the entire model in a Google Sheet format here. If you ever run into questions working with the sheet, just let me know - I am hoping some have valued this, as I think it’s one of the things that will make Ziggy Golf unique from a lot of the articles and picks you can find elsewhere online.

How I Came to My Bets

I went into this week knowing I would be betting at least one of Scottie/Rory/Koepka. As I talked about in the Form section, I can’t bet Scottie at 3/1 to win a major. I won’t. Rory is extremely tempting with his fit and form, not to mention his last major win came at Valhalla. However, I am hesitant to back him after so many near misses in majors - seriously don’t let that sway you though if you like him this week. This is the best major to play him in since…The Open in 2023, when literally everything lined up for him. Harman ran away with that one, but you get what I am saying.

And thus I am backing Brooks Koepka as my first play this week. The guy is coming in with all the confidence in the world - he won the last LIV event and 9th the one before that. The past week he’s been back home watching his Florida Panthers beat up on the Boston Bruins. Hockey has no impact on golf, but this is all adding up to him feeling really confident right now.

A couple years ago he had an awesome answer about why winning majors has come easy for him. Basically he explained that roughly 70% of the field is not good enough to compete with the baseline skills needed. Of the remainders, at least half of them will crack under the pressure. This leaves about 8-10 guys for him to actually worry about in any major. Cocky? Yes, definitely. Correct? Probably.

Brooks won back-to-back PGA Championships in the past, he is the best pressure golfer since Tiger Woods. Of course it’s possible he starts out poorly and never gets into the top 10, but I am happy taking that chance. Between the scar tissue on Rory in majors and the changes to Scottie’s life the past month, it feels to me that Brooks brings the best situation with him into Valhalla. The demand for driving and long irons is perfect for him and explains why he has done so well in PGA and US Opens that always imitate this demand.

I played Koepka outright at 17/1, would play down to 14/1 if needed. I also am adding a Top 10 finishing position bet on him.

With the main bet placed, let’s find what other names have a good chance this week.

I mentioned the big three above, but going to bullet out the rest of the sub-40/1 options with my thoughts. I am leaning towards having either two from this range or one from this range with some bombs added after.

• Xander - known loser, hard to see him winning this, but sure he’s got another top 10 in him

• Rahm - tempting at his odds, but the form has just inspired no confidence

• Bryson - I could see him overpowering the course, just unsure if he can avoid blow-up holes

• Morikawa - other than the distance concerns, he’s a great fit and has thrived on Nicklaus courses

• Homa - traditionally bad in majors, but top ten finishes in his last two, could be turning the corner?

• Niemann - he has my heart, but not my bet this week; form has started to taper off a bit, but the fit is ideal for him

• Cantlay - loves Nicklaus courses, but no way to trust his form at any price

• Cam Smith - the short game is always good, but I think he finds trouble off the tee with deep rough…Pinehurst US Open though, I’ll be back

• Cam Young - very popular play and fair odds, just do not expect his first career win to be a major

The more I looked into the course demands and recent majors, the more obvious it became I would be betting Max Homa this week.

The knock on Max has always been how poorly he plays in majors. He made a career out of winning on the West Coast years ago and has continued to win there. The difference has been how well he’s started to play elsewhere.

Before last year, he had one major finish in the top 40, a 13th at the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills. Of all the recent PGA’s, that’s the one I expect to play most similar to Valhalla. (side note: Southern Hills is a way cooler course, but the tight lies and run-off areas are a match) Then last year Max finished 10th in The Open, followed by a 3rd in this year’s Masters. This is the type of play we see from someone in majors before they take their first one down.

Looking at this year alone, Max has played well in most big events. Most recently, he finished 8th last week at Quail Hollow. He’s won there before and the layout is such a good comparable for Valhalla. From a more intangible point of view, Max has stepped forward in leaps and bounds the past year - he was arguably the best US player at the Ryder Cup and is seen as one of the stars on Tour. When we think of non-major winning stars, I often think of Xander and Cantlay first. To me, I can much more easily picture Max winning a major than those two, it’s unfair to classify him as that kind of star as of now.

I played Max at 35/1 and would play down to 30/1. Like Koepka, I am also adding a finishing position bet.

I have two bets placed in the outright market now and am choosing to sprinkle some long-shots rather than force another play on the above options.

My first long-odds play will be Byeung Hun An. He’s been playing the best golf of his career in 2024 and has the distance required to contend. Speaking honestly, I don’t know if he has what it takes to close out a major win, but that’s why we can find odds as long as 80/1. Looking at his performances on other long courses this year does bring some optimism:

• Sentry: 4th

• Genesis: 16th

• Arnold Palmer: 8th

• Masters: 16th

• Wells Fargo: 3rd

5/5 long courses he’s played this year have seen Top 20 finishes! Most encouraging is last week’s 3rd place - Quail Hollow is very similar to Valhalla (as I continue to type out), so we’re seeing not just good form, but good form on a comparable course.

I played Benny outright and in a Top 40 finishing position bet.

Next we’ll add Min Woo Lee to the card. I do not have doubt on Min Woo showing up on big stages, his concern is more around approach play. He’s losing shots on approach in more than half of events this year, so that’s concerning. The bet is more a play on his potential to spike with his irons when it’s more long iron than short.

Where we should not have concerns is off the tee. Min Woo is a long hitter who has gained shots OTT in every event for over a full calendar year now. He’ll need to rely on this heavily and does have a better chance if driving gets difficult by the weekend.

He’s a positive short game player on all surfaces and including ARG. Actually, he’s one of the more consistent short game players around today. His ‘Major Scrambling’ stats came out 11th in the field and his Par 5 Scoring 2nd. Everything will need to line up for him to actually win, but the recipe is there. Hopefully we can all see Min Woo cook this week.

I also played Min Woo as a Top 40 finishing position bet.

Last guy is going to be Keith Mitchell. I know, I know, I play him a lot. He may never win another PGA event, but holy cow is he playing like he can. Going to make the case for Keith with more of a bullet-style:

• 6 of his last 8 events saw a Top 20 finish

• Proximity from 175+: 2nd in the field

• Driving Distance: 9th in the field

• Total Approach this year: 9th in the field

• Par 5 Scoring: 7th in the field

• Odds to win: 225/1

I am not saying Keith should be a one-and-done pick, I am not even saying he definitely has a win in him. But those stats and a number at 225/1?! That’s rude. It will not take much budget to bet Keith outright, but I would encourage everyone to consider at least the Top 40 bet on him. Even that is set at +145 and he’s been showing vast improvements this year, so tons of value to be found with Keith this week.

With all the outrights placed, it’s time to scan the boards for other options:

• Rory Top 10 - everything lines up for him once again, not opposed to outright and think top 10 is a safe starting point

• Xander Top 10 - he won’t win, but he’ll play great, the usual

• Zalatoris Top 40 - form been spotty, but his major track record is elite; generous odds due to question marks, worth the shot

• Make Cut: Scottie, Rory, Xander, Koepka, Rahm - I have a hard time seeing one of these guys miss the cut

• Akshay over Tom Kim - continuing the Tom Kim fade

• Homa over Cantlay - Max and Pat been going different directions this year, think this is a fairly priced way to fade Cantlay

• Keith over Horschel - Adding more Keith exposure; Billy been playing well, but his accuracy issues will bite him this week

• Conners over DJ - Conners been striping it in practice rounds per boots on the ground, DJ looking lost

• Cam Young over Hovland - favorite of all matchups, Hovland has some issues right now and the fit is ideal for Young

• Niemann over Cam Smith - Cam going to be playing from the rough all week, Niemann from the short grass, not overthinking it from there

• Rory over Scottie - playing this due to hugely plus odds on a matchup I price at more even money right now

• Keegan over Poston - better major rack record by far; if it gets wet, Keegs could be live to win the whole thing

• Noren over Sepp - least favorite, but Noren been so steady I wanted to get some exposure on him

Bets of The Week

I covered my favorite guys this week above, but listing all of my plays below. For anyone who missed it, a post on my unit allocation strategy can be found via this link. You will need to decide what you want to get out of golf betting before you deploy a strategy, but as long as you are doing it responsibly, it’s going to be fun.

Editor’s Notes: Since I wrote that strategy post above, I have decided to stop playing First Round Leader bets. Also, unless otherwise noted, all finishing position bets will pay ties in full (MGM or Bet365).

Outrights

• Brooks Koepka (17/1) - risk 1u to win 17u (Bet365)

• Max Homa (35/1) - risk .50 to win 17.50u (Bet365)

• Benny An (80/1) - risk .20u to win 16u (Bet365)

• Min Woo Lee (85/1) - risk .20 to win 17u (Bet365)

• Keith Mitchell (225/1) - risk .10u to win 22.50u (Bet365)

Top 10

• Rory McIlroy - risk 1u to win .91u (Bet365)

• Xander Schauffele - risk 1u to win 1.50u (MGM)

• Brooks Koepka - risk 1u to win 1.50u (MGM)

Top 20

• Max Homa - risk 1u to win 1.37u (MGM)

Top 40

• Benny An - risk 1u to win .83u (Bet365)

• Will Zalatoris - risk 1u to win .91u (MGM)

• Min Woo Lee - risk 1u to win 1u (MGM)

• Keith Mitchell - risk 1u to win 1.45u (Bet365)

Make Cut Parlay

• Scottie, Rory, Xander, Rahm, Koepka - risk 1u to win .91u (Bet365)

Head to Heads

• Akshay over Tom Kim - risk 1u to win .83u (Bet365)

• Homa over Cantlay - risk 1u to win .73u (Bet365)

• Keith over Billy Horschel - risk 1u to win .73u (Bet365)

• Conners over DJ - risk 1u to win .77u (Draftkings)

• Young over Hovland - risk 1u to win 1u (Draftkings)

• Niemann over Cam Smith - risk 1u to win .71u (Draftkings)

• Rory over Scottie - risk 1u to win 1.40u (Caesars)

• Keegan over JT Poston - risk 1u to win .91u (Caesars)

• Noren over Sepp Straka - risk 1u to win .95u (Caesars)

Bet of the Week is going to be Byeung Hun An Top 40. I don’t know if he can win an event this large (probably cannot) but the finishing position bet is money with him. His distance will provide a high floor and some decent iron play puts him in contention. Run of success on long courses in 2024 is very appealing.

Closing Thoughts

I have been following pro golf my whole life and doing these deep dives for a few years now - in this time, I don’t think I have seen a major venue get worse reviews than Valhalla has so far this week. It’s going to look beautiful, don’t worry about that coming through on TV. The critiques are more just around the lack of strategy required for many of the holes - compare this to most major venues where golf nerds can wax poetically on the decisions to be made and considerations eating away at the elite golfer hole by hole, it’s just way different this week.

I have a couple quotes below from some of my favorite follows who are on the ground through practice rounds:

When you consider the number of golf courses built after 1980 with the purpose of hosting major championships, Valhalla has been objectively successful. Compared to the likes of Victoria National or the Cog Hill renovation, Valhalla has been the jewel of the Midwest when measured in terms of attracting majors. But it’s important to separate Valhalla the golf club from Valhalla the golf course, the latter of which fails to inspire…It seems unlikely that future major championships will return to Louisville any time soon. We’ll be better off for it.

-The Fried Egg

Then another from Adam Kirk (@dgbetting on Twitter):

This is the worst major venue I have been to and it’s not particularly close. The front nine is an abomination and not worthy of a major championship, not even close. The back nine is more aesthetically pleasing but this design overall makes very little sense and is set to ask the exact same question way too often - how many times can you dial in your long irons?

I am without question still very excited for the PGA Championship, no matter if the course is lacking what we’d typically expect from a major. It’s possible the course itself becomes a storyline, though I doubt the TV broadcast bad-mouth’s their partner for the week very openly.

From a betting point of view, I likely have a bit too much exposure this week. However, it’s major season and I feel good about every bet placed. Now if Scottie pulls away and wins this by 3, excitement will die down a bit by Sunday. Should that happen, we’ll have the most talk about a ‘grand slam’ since prime Tiger.

That’s going to do it this week! If anyone has questions on pools or other bets you are considering, let me know by reply or comment and I’ll aim to get back to everyone. Hope you enjoy the PGA this week and as always, best of luck with all your bets.

Matt / Ziggy