Valspar Preview
Wrapping Up the Florida Swing
Hey golf fans!
Another really fun event last week! We backed Fitzpatrick, yet another runner up finish on the season. It happens, I’m happy to have had guys in the mix as often as we have, it’s a matter of time until one closes. The non-outrights did well enough, so there’s that.
Florida has been great so far, maybe the best run of exciting finishes I can remember off the top of my head. We saw Lowry with an all-time choke at PGA National, then Akshay steal a win from Dan Berger at Bay Hill. Aberg did kind of blow it at Sawgrass, then Cam Young hit a worldie of a drive en route to winning with a par on the last hole.
Innisbrook this week is a demanding course, pretty interesting holes down the stretch too. I’d love to see amother climactic close to the tournament, ideally someone we back playing the role of hero for a change.
Stats to Value
The Valspar started in 2000 and has had a series of sponsors. The 2000 edition was an ‘opposite-field-event’, which means it was about as low of priority as possible on Tour. It gradually gained more importance as it moved around the schedule. It started in the fall, moved to March, then to April, now back to March. Valspar has been the sponsor since 2014 after five previous sponsors came and went. The only consistent thing about it has been the course - it’s always been played at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course.
Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club is home to four different courses, all designed by Larry Packard. It’s located outside of Tampa, not far from the Gulf of Mexico. Copperhead was built in 1974 and will host all four rounds this week. Since opening, there have been a couple restorations, but it’s largely been to rework greens; the majority of the course remains as the initial design laid it out. As a resort, anyone reading this can play the course. It’s not cheap, but also way more fairly priced than Sawgrass is.
Innisbrook doesn’t have the constant threat of water we saw at Sawgrass and Bay Hill. Rather, there are only 6 holes with some water. Players have described it as feeling more like a Carolina course - think tree-lined holes with elevation changes.
The length does not seem overly far at first glance, 7340 yards. However, when you factor in that it’s a par 71, it gets a bit longer. The average driving distance is actually very low though, the third shortest average on Tour (only shorter ones are Pebble Beach and Harbour Town). When we see a long course with low driving distance, it’s usually due to forced lay-ups with water or doglegs - the latter is the explanation at Innisbrook, 12 holes feature doglegs. Interesting note on the par 71: there are five par 3’s and four par 5’s, a kind of unique set-up.
Fairways are some of the narrowest we’ve seen this year - this has led to a 15% lower driving accuracy rate than average. With the rough being on the thicker side, accuracy off the tee is going to end up being integral. Guys will be pulling less-than-driver more often, so distance is really not going to matter as much - expect to see accuracy win out in any models.
After the short narrow tee shots, players will be left with longer approach shots. We see a pretty big uptick in proximity ranges 175 yards and longer, something I’ll include this week. The GIR% is a touch lower than tour average, related to the rough and length of approach. Guys need to stay accurate off the tee to set up the 2nd shot, but the winner will likely be someone who controls their approach stats best.
Past event data says that the around the green shots guys will encounter are on the easier side. GIR% is low, but scrambling success is high…due in part to the greens being pretty straightforward. There is a bit of sloping, but putting stats show an easier than average test. One-putt percentage is one of the highest on tour at 42%, three-putt percentage among the lowest at 2%. The surface is Poa Trivialis instead of pure Bermuda since it’s not hot in the area yet. The takeaway to all this is I’m going to include overall short game stats rather than any specialty surface this week.
The Snake Pit
We started the Florida Swing with “The Bear Trap” and we’ll end it with “The Snake Pit”. Holes 16, 17, and 18 are greeted with that pretty cool statue you see above and play as the hardest stretch of the course. As finishing holes, it sets up the chances for a blown lead down the stretch.
The 16th is the hardest scoring hole at Innisbrook. Just about 30% of guys will bogey this each round, 6% of them being doubles or worse. It’s a narrow fairway on an angle - guys will often miss left in fear of the water. This leaves a 200+ yard approach shot into an elevated green.
The 17th is a 215 yard par 3 into a small green. Trees on the left side will hover close to your line off the tee. Playing it safely into the middle of the green for a two-putt is the wise play, as the bunkers present a tough save as the biggest danger on the hole.
The closing 18th hole is an uphill par 4 with yet another narrow fairway to find. Approach shots fall around 175 yards in to the most sloping green on the course. Bogeys happen more than twice as much as birdies on each of these holes.
Model Result
Link to the model is here, results below:
Form Fit
Akshay is in a groove this year. The putter has become a real weapon after changing to that ridiculous looking abomination a couple years ago. When a guy is 2nd in APP and 3rd in P, he’s having a great time out there. I’m not backing him outright mainly because I don’t think he’ll win twice in this short of time, but man his form is undeniable right now. The floor is high, I’d support backing him in most matchups.
Course Fit
Xander is the class of the field. Lots of good players, but he’s the top. I know I wasn’t really going to bet him at like 12/1, but at the same time it is starting to feel like he’s building to a win. He’s back to consistently gaining in every category, always had a really balanced game. I played him in a matchup over Matt Fitzpatrick (MGM, 1.80) because I think Fitz is due for a flat week after the letdown at Sawgrass. I’d really back Xander over anyone in a matchup though, as long as the price isn’t too long…so take your pick depending on what your books offer.
Skill Fit
Man was Fitzpatrick close last week. He’s in great form right now, but I think we’ll see him trip up a bit this week. It happens all the time - Lowry MC’d the event after his blow up, Berger finished 66th the week after he squandered his chance - and that’s just the last two events. Statistically, he makes all the sense in the world. The timing tells me we should fade him.
Total Fit
Some gut reaction bullets:
Xander - deserving favorite
Akshay - hot hot hot
Fitzpatrick - due for a letdown
Nicolai - I believe in you
Koepka - please make a putt
Bridgeman - still killing it?
Sahith - we’ll back him soon
Hovland - not going back-to-back
Conners - see Koepka
Smotherman - super popular pick
My Plays
Brooks Koepka - we’re seeing such good ball striking from Brooks in Florida. He gained 4.86 ball striking at Cognizant, then 8.18 last week. The putter has been so bad though, it’s holding him way back. This isn’t going to be nearly as difficult of putting as the courses he’s been playing though, so the hope is that he can have a good week now that it’s a bit more straightforward.
Corey Conners - sticking with flushers who can’t putt, what could go wrong? But really this is just a course Corey fits well. His accuracy plays well most places to be fair, but boring golf can get you a win here - shoot 4 under each day and you’re contending. Just like Koepka, I’m playing this fully confident in a high floor and rooting for a spike putting week to be all we need.
Nicolai Hojgaard - if you read Ziggy Golf weekly, you knew this was coming. Nicolai is looking so comfortable this season on the PGA side - in 5 events, his worst finish is 27th with two top 10’s. What I like most is the balance: he’s gaining shots in every category at an 80% clip right now. It’s a small sample size still, but that kind of balance is rare. Guys with few holes in their game tend to rise to the top more often than not and it feels like the time is near for this Hojgaard.
Max Homa - we’re getting great odds here, that’s the main thinking behind this one. Max is a multi-time winner coming off his worst season since his first year on tour. He’s not gaining shots like the three guys above, but Florida has been good still - 13th at Cognizant and 32nd at Players. His last time at Innisbrook was a 6th place way back in 2021. I’m not saying he has as good of chance as the others on the card, but he has more win equity than the other guys at 80/1.
Degen Corner
LIV - gotta go Niemann. Draftkings is way off market on his price, bet it there if you are able.
EURO - Angel Ayora, the field favorite. It’s a weaker field and he is a rising star, the timing seems right.
LPGA - Nasa Hataoka, a fair price for someone in great form (9th, 6th, 18th in 2026)
Closing Thoughts
We have one of the greatest weekends in sports coming up, the first rounds of March Madness. I don’t pay attention to college basketball nearly as closely as I once did, but it’s one of those events where you get pulled into it no matter what. I’ll still find a way to work golf into the TV channel rotation, no one should be watching commercials this weekend.
Innisbrook isn’t like my favorite course, but it does fit the schedule well - something much tougher than the average mid-level PGA course. The field is stronger than ever this year too. However, there’s a good chance this is the last time it’s a strong field with changes to the tour schedule starting to take more shape. Brian Rolapp, new PGA Tour CEO, had a great press conference at The Players last week and detailed the potential schedule changes.
Nothing’s official, but it’s definitely going in the direction of more of a clear relegation model. I love it. It means in future years this event will likely only be played with the 2nd tier of the tour. There’s also a chance they cut one of the four Florida events in an effort to get to bigger cities. If they do, this course is the obvious choice to get cut.
That will do it! A bit shorter than usual posts again, but if you have any questions on plays, leave me a comment or reply to the email and I’ll get back to you. As always, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy