Valero Preview
The lessor Texas event
Hey golf fans!
Really fun one last week with Min Woo Lee, hope at least some readers were able to cash that ticket with me!
Now we’ll stay in Texas one more week ahead of Augusta, one more chance for someone to punch their ticket to The Masters. It’s a weaker field on a less interesting course, but I was still impressed at some of the names coming out. Ludvig and Fleetwood top the oddsboard, can say now that I will not have interest in either.
Alright, let’s get to it…
Stats to Value
It might surprise you to hear this will be the 102nd iteration of this event - the vast majority of those being called The Texas Open. TPC San Antonio is not even close to that old, but the event has been played in the San Antonio area for all 100 years. In the past, it held greater prestige than it does today (it would be hard to be less prestigious to be honest).
TPC San Antonio is actually two separate courses: the “Canyon” by Pete Dye and the “Oaks” by Greg Norman. All of this event will be played on the Oaks course. The pair opened in 2010. Dye worked alone, but Norman was joined in part by Sergio Garcia.
The course measures out at 7450 yards, making it just a bit above average. I’d normally expect distance to matter when we have a length like this, but past history shows it’s barely made a difference. The rough is kept pretty short, just like Houston last week. I expect to use Good Drives Gained as my OTT angle this week. We can miss the fairway and be fine.
The craziest stat I found this week is about GIR%…from the rough, the GIR% is the exact same as from the fairway. So really we just need our guys to avoid massive misses into the oak trees that line many holes. It’s wide enough, but a severe miss will be punished, sometimes excessively…
Way back in 2011, Kevin Na recorded a 16 on the 9th hole! Multiple shots hit trees, one of them coming back at Na and hitting him in the leg, incurring more penalties. A 16 on a par 4 still stands as the worst par 4 score in tour history.
In a piece of trivia, the worst ever score recorded was an 18 on a par 5, a record proudly owned by John Daly.
I know it can sound like a broken record, but approach play is the most important trait this week. Driving distance and accuracy both are on the less challenging side, which is how the “second shot” golf course happens. Unfortunately, no proximity range stands out against average, so nothing to weigh there for me. I’ll include GIR’s Gained to compliment SG Approach.
Greens are 6400 square foot Bermuda. However, I’m not going to use Bermuda splits as my putting stat. Instead, I’ll be looking at how guys have performed on slower putting greens. It’s odd to me that a Texas course would have slow rolling greens, but years of data say they are slower than most of the schedule. This is an available filter on most data sites (Fantasy National for me). Something interesting: putting stats inside 20 feet are better than average, but outside 20 feet worse than average.
Model Result
Link to the model is here, results below:
Form Fit
Corey Conners has been playing great the past month - 3rd at API, 6th at PLAYERS, 8th at Valspar. I’m most surprised by his putting being as green as is it, the rest seems more standard Conners. His history at Valero shows it’s his best course of his career, two wins on the course and nothing worse than 35th through 6 trips here. He’s an obvious guy to like this week, priced accordingly. I will have some exposure on him, not betting someone to win an event for the third time unless he’s a far higher caliber of player than Corey is - safe finishing position bet though.
Course Fit
Kuchar has been awful lately, skip him and pretend he’s not even in the field.
Denny McCarthy however has been playing well and fits the course here so well. He almost chased down Akshay in this event last year before he chunked one into water on the first playoff hole. For his career, still stuck on zero PGA Tour wins. I’m not betting him outright here or anywhere, but certainly endorse as a DFS option and will play him in a cutline play myself.
Skill Fit
Ben Griffin scores well in this score most weeks. He’s a balanced player with good accuracy and a strong short game - really he looks like a future winner on paper. The reason I am scared off is him MC’ing at PLAYERS and Valspar - both are courses I would expect him to play well on, so seeing the missed cut raises some concern for me. I’d look his way more in DFS than I would betting, not sure we are getting a fair enough price. Basically, what’s the difference between Ben Griffin and Eric Cole besides about 40 points in the odds?
Total Fit
Tommy Fleetwood expectedly wins the Total Fit. He should be playing great this week based on however you look at it, he’s the only guy who can be seen in all four of the screenshots. The price is gross and he’s still tough to trust as someone who can close out a win. It’s a bit of a spoiler, but when I look at the top 3 above, I think that’s a great collection of losers. I would rather bet the outright market on guys I think will win more often than the top 3 - Akshay and Keegan are the only ones backing up their play with wins in the past 12 months of that whole list.
My Plays
I knew half of my outright selection budget was going to include Jordan Spieth. From there, I was looking to spread exposure around guys like Daniel Berger, Gary Woodland, Bud Cauley, and/or Lee Hodges. The more I thought about it, I felt like picking one guy shorter on the board would give me more win equity than peppering the mid-range with very chalky picks this week.
Outside of outrights, I am putting in more cutline parlays than usual. It’s been the best non-outright market this year so I want to pursue them further and see if I do in fact have an edge in that market compared to finishing position or matchup plays.
Jordan Spieth Outright Winner (27/1) - risk .45u to win 12.15u (Bet365)
Jordan Spieth Top 20 - risk 1u to win 1.20u (Bet365)
I’m going to take the shot on Spieth in Texas this week. He’s from Texas and has always had good success in his home state - at The Valero alone he has a 1st, 2nd, 10th, 10th, 30th, and 35th over his last six trips (spans 10 years). He’s always putted the best in Texas, makes sense, and putting has been a weakness of the past couple years across most events he plays in.
The form stat that brought me to Jordy was his recent APP. It’s a Jekyll and Hyde situation of sorts: +7.6 last time out, -5.1 before that…+6.9 at WM earlier this year, -4.1 week after at Genesis. It’s possible his iron play is awful and he misses the cut - however, if the irons are as good as the flashes have shown this year and we combine course history and Texas familiarity on the greens, I feel there is more win equity on Jordan than anyone else in the field. For where he is located on the oddsboard, it made for an easy call to me.
Akshay Bhatia Outright Winner (25/1) - risk .45u to win 11.25u (Draftkings)
Akshay Bhatia Top 20 - risk 1u to win 1.15u (Draftkings)
I hate to bet one someone to win an event in back-to-back years, so I had no plans of betting Akshay at first. Then as I saw the odds and how popular guys like Woodland or Berger were, I rethought my usual position - in the end, I feel good having Akshay included on the card.
Last we saw Akshay was at The PLAYERS when he finished 3rd. Before that was a MC at The API (that course will never suit him in my opinion). Prior to that, a 9th in Mexico and a 9th at Genesis. If you removed the one dud, he’s nuclear hot. He’s gaining across the bag and more on putting than he was a year ago at this time. I could see him staying hot with his striking and being just as comfortable as he was last year when he went wire-to-wire winner here. Between he and Spieth, I like Jordan more, but we have room for both. I do not feel Fleetwood or Aberg should be as short as they are compared to my guys this week.
Tom Hoge Outright Winner (100/1) - risk .10u to win 10u (Caesars)
Had the budget for a longshot to join the two guys above and I’m using it on Hollywood Hoge. My main reason is his approach play - he can spike on approach more than most, gained a kind of unbelievable 9.9 on APP last time out at The PLAYERS. Iron play will win the Valero more than almost any other event. The other thing I like about Hoge is that he went to TCU - this is in San Antonio and not Dallas, which I prefer for less attention on him, but we still get the familiarity with Texas short game and wind.
Corey Conners Top 20 - risk 1u to win .91u (MGM)
I mentioned him in the Form Fit section, just cannot ignore how well he is playing and his history at TPC San Antonio. Outright market is really hard to bet when Corey starts with a 1 on his price, though I won’t blame anyone for looking his way there as well. For a finishing position bet, this one is as safe as we can find this week.
Make Cut Parlay: Denny McCarthy and Rico Hoey - risk 1u to win .95u (Bet365)
Taking a trio of make cut parlays, starting with Denny and Rico Hoey. Denny has the Course Fit stats to support the play and I like his form over the year so far, finished top 20 last two events. Hoey is a less established golfer, helps the odds on the parlay, but does have a strong season going and finished top 20 last week in Houston.
Make Cut Parlay: Daniel Berger and Ryan Gerard - risk 1u to win .93u (Bet365)
Chalky boys of the week, Berger and Gerard should both play well. Both are Florida based guys who focus on approach accuracy over distance. Berger has been marching towards contending again, possible he wins this week. Gerard would legit shock me if he won, but I do expect another good finish. Gerard finished 9th last week as well.
Make Cut Parlay: Bud Cauley and Ben Griffin - risk 1u to win .96u (Bet365)
Bud Cauley is likely a new name for some, but he is actually much older. A bad accident derailed his career and he’s making a real push to get it back now. I do worry if he can close out a win with that much pressure on him, but the results are great: 4th and 6th his last two times out. Griffin has seen his form waver a bit with a couple missed cuts the past month, but I believe his overall baseline skill should keep him above the cutline at a course where distance is devalued.
JT Poston over Sam Burns - risk 1u to win .80u (Bet365)
Fading Sam Burns here, that guys is seeming like he’s either injured or just really stopped caring about his job. He’s played in 9 events in 2025 - in 8 of them, he lost 1.5 shots or more on approach. He lost over 4 twice as well. His T2G numbers from the last three: -5.3, -4, -10.2. Woof. Poston presents a high floor, he has gained on approach in 7 straight events. If you do not have this play, I would be looking for ways to fade Burns more than back Poston.
Tom Kim over Sam Burns - risk 1u to win .90u (MGM)
Decided to double dip on the Burns fade this week. Tom Kim has been playing great up until he gets to the green. I could see his putting improving a lot more than I could Burns ball striking suddenly returning, expect we cash both of these bets Friday evening.
Tommy Fleetwood over Ludvig Aberg - risk 1u to win 1.10u (Bet365)
Betting against Ludvig is going to be a bad idea in the long run, but this is a bad price. I have Tommy a slightly better course fit in slightly better form, so I had this matchup flagged on Monday when it was priced as even money. I decided against that until I saw the line move - purely a price play here, think Tommy wins at least 50% of the time if we could simulate this 100 times. Would consider this +EV at anything better than even money.
Lee Hodges over Kurt Kitayama - risk 1u to win .91u (Fanduel)
Kitayama continues to regress from great play in the fall. He scores well in models still if it contains that data, but it feels long ago at this point. Hodges is quietly having a great year - 6 events, no MC’s, 3 top 20 finishes. I saw this play on multiple books, so shop around if you do play it.
Joel Dahmen over Max Homa - risk 1u to win .79u (Bookmaker)
Went offshore to find a Max Homa fade. He’s in the same boat as Burns right now, pure fade material until we see a drastic change. Homa has maybe been worse, five straight events he’s lost 3 or more shots on approach. For Dahmen, he’s coming off an 18th last week and has spiked enough on approach this year that I feel good enough backing him. Should you have other options to bet against Homa, I could get behind almost anyone.
Degen Corner
Have a few other events this week to profile - my favorite will be the LPGA Match Play event (starts Wednesday), think the PGA made a mistake abandoning the format. Golf was played for hundreds of years with no concept of “par”, it was a match play game - just add it back PGA, do the right thing.
Other than that, we’ll have LIV Miami at Doral. Good course, but that thing is going to be hard to watch - unless you love political ads. If you love semi-discreet political ads, you’re going to love this broadcast of a Saudi product on a Trump golf course. For the rest of us, root for Bryson and maybe tune in should he be mixing late Sunday.
Closing Thoughts
Should be a good weekend of golf as we prepare for the official start of spring next weekend at Augusta. I may have noted it in previous posts, but I am unfortunately going to be doing some work travel next week. I’m aiming to get the usual posts out, but I will be in a state where I cannot place any of my bets - don’t worry, I will get home with a couple hours before the event starts, my bets will be in. But this means I will not have official bets with books and prices listed next week - more my thoughts and players I am looking to target.
For anyone this week or next week, if you have questions on pools you are in, bets you want to place, or anything else golf related, please do still contact me. I’ll always be happy to help where I can.
That will do it! Hopefully we can go back-to-back ourselves this week after Min Woo cooked up a W last week. As always, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy