Torrey Pines, Volume 1
The Farmers Preview (Starts Wednesday!)
Hey golf fans!
We’re back fresh off an outright victory on Sepp Straka (yay Sepp!) to preview The Farmers at Torrey Pines. Most importantly, this event STARTS WEDNESDAY - so get all your bets and picks in earlier than usual. It’s the only time The PGA moves the schedule to avoid competing with the NFL…makes sense, everyone will be watching conference championships on Sunday and we have no more Saturday football.
The PGA announced this week that Torrey Pines will host The Genesis instead of Riviera this year due to the fires (hence ‘Volume 1’). It’s an awesome course, so we could do worse for a substitute - also, we’ll no doubt see something this week that influences our betting thoughts in a few weeks when we return.
I am going to intend on this one being more brief this week, just less time available to get everything done. If any questions come to mind though, leave me a comment and I’ll be quick to reply.
Stats to Value
Torrey Pines is the nicest municipal golf course in the world and a course that has pretty clear demands. Length is the main challenge - both in the course length and in the rough. We’ll give a clear edge to longer hitters - fairways are firm and roll-outs very common, so even the shorter more accurate drivers will be missing fairways. It’s kind of a classic ‘bomb and gouge’ strategy week.
Greens are pure Poa, another element we’ll weight this week. Past winners more often than not are guys who prefer Poa, so they usually end up being from the area (Max Homa most notably). The rough is kept very thick off fairways and greens, so short game challenges are a bit nuanced as well. From a stats point of view, we can look at ARG from deep rough as a good indicator.
Course history has proven useful here, so we’ll look at that as a key metric. I’ll also look at all performances on long/difficult courses in the past couple years. Winner’s trends have a few that highlight the course history narrative:
Prior Top 10 in Farmers
3+ Career Wins
Top 30 ranked player
Model Result
Link to the model is here, results below:
Form Fit
Mav McNealy has been playing the best golf of his career the past six months. He finally got the monkey off his back with a win this Fall, so I am a bit more bullish on his ability to close than before that. Actual results have been good, but even more encouraging is how he’s gaining shots OTT and APP. Mav was always a great short game player who struggled with his irons - if this keeps up he should win again in 2025. I like him to do well, but I don’t see him winning on a course this tough. If the price was more like 50/1, I would be there, just not at nearly 30/1.
Hideki won The Sentry and followed it up with a 16th at The Sony. He’s likely the most accomplished golfer in the field and has a good history at Torrey Pines. I’m not using him anywhere in my betting card but would certainly not fade him here. There’s always volatility with him so I’ll never be buying when he’s the shortest in the field. What I would advise is considering a Masters future on Hideki - if the form continues to look like this, we’ll get big CLV by April.
Course Fit
Sungjae was legit awful last week at PGA West. He was 5/5 for top 25 finishes before missing the cut by a few, something I would be pretty concerned about. His history at Torrey is clearly good (4th and 6th in past 3 years) as is his play on other difficult/long courses. The price is offensively short in outright markets and I am struggling to trust playing him in any market after last week. The most damning part of that AMEX dud was that he lost 5.5 shots on approach, the 2nd worst mark of his entire career. Skip or fade, but definitely don’t endorse playing him.
Max Homa is the name I think of when we talk Torrey Pines course fits. He’s a classic Poa putter from California, plus distance and good scrambling. He won this event a couple years ago when he was the most popular play of the week (the Zalatoris of that year). I considered him because if his game shows up anywhere it should be here - just can’t get there. Like Sungjae above, the recent numbers are tough. Max lost his driver in 2024 and I have not seen enough to trust it’s back. I’m less inclined to fade Homa like Sungjae, just a full skip for me.
Skill Fit
Taylor Pendrith checks a lot of boxes for me this week. Simply put, he is a long hitter with a decent history at Torrey Pines. I narrowly missed including him in outright bets, but do love him in a nationality play. He has one prior PGA win, encouraging a la McNealy, just not sure he wins an event of this calibur.
Kurt Kitayama was striping it through the Fall, then lost some momentum to open 2025. We won’t see him in recent form scores but the wider view loves Kurt. His driver has enough distance, but if you play him it would be for his long-range approach play. The caution I would give is his Poa putting. Over the course of his career, Poa is his worst surface.
Total Fit
A lot of familiar names above! Hideki being #1 makes sense, I’ll cover the guys I am playing below.
My Plays
First off, I will say the guys I wanted to play when the week started were Ludvig Aberg and Will Zalatoris. Both of them fit this profile perfectly and have past trips to point towards as encouraging. Zalatoris specifically felt like we would see him full return to glory by lifting this trophy.
So why am I not on them? Really it’s due to how many other accounts are betting them. I pay attention to a Twitter page that shows the most tipped golfers of the week (GolfTipsChecker). It’s definitely more art than science, but I don’t want to bet an outright when he’s the most obvious play - sure he could win once in a while, but data has proven the most obvious play rarely wins. You might be thinking “but Scheffler!”…what I mean is the most obvious bet rarely wins, and Scheffler is never that due to his odds.
Anyway, Zalatoris is by far the most tipped golfer this week, so I will live with skipping him on my outright card. Aberg is a close 2nd and priced in a way where you would almost only bet him if you pursued it. Between them, I would much rather play Ludvig at his price than a chalked out Willy Z. And if these notes about ‘most tipped’ and ‘chalk’ sound like nothing but the ravings of a crazy person, then fire away.
Now let’s get to the bets I did make:
Jason Day outright 27/1 - risk .41u to win 11.07u (Bet365)
Jason Day Top 20 - risk 1u to win 1.25u (Bet365)
I am forming the card around Jason Day this week. He’s fresh off a 3rd at The AMEX - what I loved about that performance was he lost shots putting and struck it well enough to still get up to 3rd. Over the past couple years, he gains OTT and APP about 50% of the time, but putting closer to 80% of the time. If we see his striking stay comfortable and the putting come around, we could be looking at the winner.
I’m bullish on his putting coming around due to his course history. Poa is his best surface, but Torrey Pines specifically has been outstanding. He’s played this event 13 times and gained putting in 10 of them. He’s missed the cut 5 times and finished top 20 the other 8 times. With his recent striking, I do not expect MC to happen, so the ceiling potential is then really high. I won’t back Jason Day very often, but I believe this is the time and place to do it.
Sahith Theegala outright 32/1 - risk .35u to win 11.20u (Bet365)
Sahith is a California guy very familiar with courses like this one. I consider him as kind of a mix between Max Homa (obvious geographical preference) and Jordan Spieth (non-traditional in how he gets the ball in the hole). For this week, I am seeing the Homa side of him more and see potential for him to score well. 2025 has been so-so thus far, finishes in the 30’s, but we’re finally to his best surface, Poa. He’s played here 3 times with a best result of 4th in 2023. Driving distance and a good short game is what we want here and it’s also where Sahith fits the best. Love the price compared to many in the field.
Jhonny Vegas outright 80/1 - risk .13u to win 10.40u (MGM)
Ziggy Golf tipped Jhonny at the 3M last summer (he won) so I have a bit of a soft spot for him now. The bet this week is not related to that soft spot though, it’s really rooted in his approach play from The Sentry - 10 shots gained! Then he missed the cut at The AMEX, so there’s that. I don’t like PGA West for his game though, he’ll have a leg up when distance matters like Torrey. He’s a bad putter, especially on Poa, but I wanted to include him on the card due to spike upside with his irons.
Gary Woodland outright 100/1 - risk .11u to win 11u (Bet365)
Gary Woodland is playing some decent golf as of late, mostly OTT where he has gained in every event going back to last summer. Many of you will recognize the story, Gary had an issue with brain tumors a couple years ago and missed substantial time. He’s way past his physical prime and any comeback will have tempered expectations. That being said, he has played Torrey Pines 15 different times and has 2 top 10 finishes. With the driving looking great and a course he is familiar with, there is at least a path for him to contend. If he were to win this, it would be a frontrunner for story of the year in golf. I would not play at shorter than 100/1.
Ludvig Aberg Top 10 - risk 1u to win 1.15u (Bet365)
Aberg is an elite golfer. Aberg has one career PGA Tour win. Those are both emphatically true, the latter making it hard for me to bet him when his price is the same as an 11-time Tour winner in Hideki. It’s possible we watch Ludvig run away with this win by Sunday and I’ll miss it - I can live with that. What I can’t live with is missing any exposure on him, so I’m playing this top 10 at plus odds. He won’t completely fall apart here and I think this should be safe all week. Now, if he does finish top 10 and not win, we’ll be hard pressed to not come to him when The Genesis is played here with a stronger field.
Make Cut Parlay: Zalatoris, Sahith, McNealy - risk 1u to win 1.61u (Bet365)
I mentioned Zal as the chalk of the week, but I am expecting he easily makes the cut and likely cracks the top 20. For this parlay I am starting with him and then adding two solid short game players from California in Sahith and Mav. I considered each of these guys outright with how much spike potential they have in various areas, only got there on Sahith. However, I see a high floor with all three guys - if you disliked one of them, combining either Mav or Sahith with Zal still gets you decent odds.
Top Canadian: Taylor Pendrith - risk 1u to win .71u (Draftkings)
There are only three Canadians in the field (Adam Svensson and Ben Silverman the others). Those guys are not bad, but their game does not fit Torrey Pines at all - both are more of a positional approach course fit and lack the power that Pendrith has. History is substantially favored towards Pendy as well, so I don’t mind paying juice on this bet, could even endorse it going up to 2 units if you were so inclined.
Bonus: DP World Tour Ras al Khaimah (UAE)
Tom McKibbon - risk .47u to win 11.28u (Bet365)
Thomas Pieters - risk .25u to win 11.25u (Bet365)
Haotong Li - risk .16u to win 11.20u (Fanduel)
Adrien Dumont de Chassart - risk .12u to win 12u (Fanduel)
This one will be on overnight for most of us in the states, could be something to turn on if you’re up very early. I like McKibbon here most, coming off a good showing last week in Dubai and hopefully motivated to silence anyone hating on his move to LIV. Pieters let us down last week but I like the form before that enough to roll him out again. Haotong is a proven winner, so don’t mind taking the shot on him at the price. ADDC is a one-time phenom who has struggled to get it done as a grown up professional. He’ll likely flame out as usual, but odds this long demanded I at least take the shot on his raw talent coming through.
Closing Thoughts
After talking about how little I enjoy The AMEX last week, we hit a winner on Sepp Straka. I’m not going to throw shade at The Farmers in the same way, though I will note there is a two course rotation the first two days. Then after the cut is made, we’ll be only on the main course from there. I have to imagine that we’ll be all on the big course when we come back for The Genesis in a couple weeks.
Torrey Pines is a truly beautiful course. Architecture nerds will say it’s too many template holes, too much of the same long and straight par 4. I wouldn’t argue with the creativity being a little lower than most, but would point out that the land is in the top 1% of beautiful land anywhere in the world, so maybe we can give some straightforward designs a pass. It’s very playable for anyone in the area, extra playable at a good rate if you are a San Diego resident. I think I speak for anyone in the Midwest this week when I say ‘oh to be a San Diego resident’.
That will do it! Tried to get this research and email done a bit quicker than usual with the short week, so please take it easy on me if you find any typos. As always, best of luck with all your bets!
Matt / Ziggy