The Masters Preview

Hello Friends

Cue the music, call Jim Nantz, get your weekend snacks ready - it’s Masters Week.

The Masters is not the oldest event or the biggest payday - it’s not even in the top ten paydays of the year. However, there is no debate that it remains the most prestigious event in all of golf. Winning at Augusta turns someone from a ‘famous golfer’ into a ‘famous person’. It was the kick-start that began Tiger-mania for his legendary career. If I asked you to think of Tiger Woods winning an event, or Jack Nicklas winning an event for the older readers, I bet most of you are picturing a win here. Lots of events are important, but not like this one.

The event goes back to 1934, making this the 92nd playing of the event. Since it began, the course has typically sorted the field for the best of the best to be contending. I have a ton of detail on the course itself and it’s history in our next section, so I won’t go on and on now about Augusta National.

This is a much smaller field than we see most weeks - only 91 guys will be in the field. The cut is also more aggressive - instead of the top 70 with ties, we’ll only see the top 50 with ties advance to the weekend. There will be a lot of opportunity for Cutline Parlays I hope, as we can somewhat safely project who will be playing Saturday and Sunday.

Going to be a longer email today as a head’s up, but sure that was expected. It will cut off in your inbox, so open web version if you want the full thing in one go.

Augusta National

The land this course sits on was once farmland where fruit was grown. The owner of that plantation lived in what is today the clubhouse. After his death in 1910, the land was left to his sons and wife. Over time, the family decided they wanted to get out of the business and sold it to a hotel owner in Miami. The plan was to build another hotel on this site, but tragedy struck when a hurricane wiped out his Miami property.

The land then sat vacant and unused for nearly a decade before another buyer group came in with plans to build a golf course. This group was led by legendary golfer Bobby Jones, who had just completed his playing career. Even with inflation factored in, they got a steal on this property - they paid $70,000 for it in 1930 and began construction of Augusta National.

Alister MacKenzie was the designer, a physician turned golf architect. On the Mount Rushmore of golf course designers, he is unquestionably one of the faces. The course has been touched up or updated more than any other course in the top 10 historical courses of the world, but it’s still the same layout of holes. He completed his work in late 1932 and the first Masters tournament was played in 1934.

Bobby Jones, retired at the time, played in the first few events, instantly adding credibility and interest to the new course. Horton Smith won that first year and took home a check for $1500 - boy have things changed. It was, and has remained, the only major played at the same course each year.

There is no course in the world that shows a greater correlation between past history and future success than Augusta National. A big part of this correlation comes from how unique of course this is. You can see in the images I’ve included, and likely in your memory, how hilly it is here. Uneven lies are a norm, as is creative shot making. Every single player will at some point be hitting out of the pine straw, one of the more obvious examples of the creative demands. Elevation changes happen off tee shots and into greens on approach - knowing the right spots to leave your next shot is just as important as making good contact.

Augusta will measure out at 7550 yards, making this a long test fitting for a major venue. Par 5’s are on the shorter side, but the Par 4’s are definitely long. Rough is kept short throughout the course, so missing the fairway is less impactful than many weeks. I’ll include Distance in models as well as recent OTT stats. I’ll still value course history and experience more though - being long and on the correct side of the hole is what we’re after.

Approach matters a ton, just like always, but we’ll have lower weights than usual around it. The reason is that every other facet is more demanding than usual. With only so much weight to value, approach will end up being counted about the same as other stat categories. In terms of specific categories or ranges, Proximity from 200+ yards is a main bucket.

We don’t have ShotLink data at Augusta, which often leads to some assumptions around what has actually mattered. However, enough has been documented for us to have a good idea of what moves the needle. Augusta National does not even allow cell phones on the grounds, so not shocking they don’t have the ShotLink cameras all over the course.

The Greens at Augusta

The greens are the area of the course where experience matters the most. It’s not just in reading the break, it’s also going to play heavily into approach success. Basically every putt is tough, so leaving yourself uphill looks is key. Players have said five foot downhill putts can feel like lag putts with fear of overshooting and leaving more than five feet back. Augusta has the highest three-putt percentage and it’s not particularly close, 4.38% of holes played will see one - this means it happens roughly 75 times per round, compared to the tour average of 49 per round.

We haven’t seen many Bent grass greens yet in 2025, but we’re starting with the best here. The undulations on the greens are so severe and the speed devilishly fast. This type of green doesn’t just maintain itself; rather, it’s probably the piece of work Augusta invests the most on.

Each of the 18 receive a personalized treatment and conditioning plan, catered to its slope and possible pin locations. As no two have exactly the same slopes, they all require a different mowing pattern and equipment, but are brushed prior to mowing. The brushing further ensures a consistent cut and purer roll. If this sounds extreme, it’s because it is, but this is Augusta, so ‘when in Rome’.

The Green Jacket

When someone wins The Masters, they put on their fancy new green jacket - an amazing conversation piece, or flex, if not obviously cool. So are guys just wearing these jackets around the rest of their lives or what? They are not!

After winning, you take the jacket home for one year, but must return it at the following year’s event. It’s then stored with the other jackets, and the only way it leaves the property again is if the owner of said jacket wins again. Repeat winners putting on the jacket are then putting on the exact same jacket they wore with their previous wins.

Every winner of The Masters and member of Augusta National has worn a green jacket since the tradition began in 1937. The original purpose of introducing the bright jacket as the club member’s uniform is kind of hilarious: wearing one was meant to ‘identify club members as reliable sources of information, and to let staff know who would cover expenses’ - amazing.

Model Result

Link to the model is here, results below:

Form Fit

Cannot argue with Cam Young’s form right now. If you read yesterday’s post, you saw he was one of the 4 survivors of the trends (many around recent form). I wish he had played something after his Players win, it’s now been a month since he played. I don’t expect him to struggle, if anything I’m tempted to bet him outright - but for the price I’m just worried about no action for a month right after he had the biggest moment of his career so far.

Course Fit

Now is a perfect time to talk about Scheffler. Obviously, he could win any event he tees it up in, but nothing about this season is saying he’ll win another Masters in 2026. Sure he has a win, but he’s been as bad as we’ve seen in 2 years since the AMEX (still good). If he were like 20/1, then for sure we’d bet him - at the usual insanely short price, it’s an easy skip.

Side note: he and his wife just had a second child last week, so expect to hear that mentioned every 5 minutes if he’s winning on Sunday.

Skill Fit

I’m going to use this section to talk about Ludvig Aberg. He was on my short list for Augusta as he was dominating through Round 3 at Sawgrass a month ago…then we watched him flounder under pressure Sunday. Then we watched it again last week in San Antonio. Obviously, the guy is incredible, the floor is so high. His price is just way too short with what we’ve been seeing lately though.

He’s going to make the cut, he might even finish top 10, but I think there are better ways to use your outright budget than him.

Total Fit

Some quick bullets on the top 10:

• Scottie - I don’t see it right now with the form he’s been showing

• Rory - easy skip, he’s not going to be a repeat winner here

• Ludvig - super high floor, but I can’t yet trust him to close on Sunday

• Xander - intriguing pick, he’s almost under the radar right now but playing great…2 time major winner, fits the mold

• Rahm - it’s LIV, but just insanely good form (2nd, 2nd, 1st, 5th, 2nd)…also someone I still trust on Sunday even if it feels so long ago

• Morikawa - if we knew he was healthy, it would be a good play…I have doubt though

• Fitzpatrick - awesome form, former major winner, can scramble and hang tough on Sunday

• Young - wish he had played more recently, but a lot to like

• Bryson - I don’t know if I see him as a winner at Augusta, but the form is at least as good as Rahm’s (won last two starts)

• Fleetwood - safely makes the cut, backdoors a 9th place on Sunday, the usual for Tommy

My Plays

Outrights

For my outright bets, I’m starting with Jon Rahm. The number you see above is no longer available, I’d play this at whatever number you can get though. He definitely wasn’t the same the past couple years, but he’s still been relevant in a couple majors a year since joining LIV. Now we’re seeing better form than ever - acknowledging it’s a weaker field, he’s still playing incredible golf.

I like that he’s won here before too, a course where repeat winners are extremely common. It should be a strong season for Rahm and I think it could really start here.

I was really tempted by Xander most after Rahm, but for the price I couldn’t fit both of them.

Instead, I’m turning to Matt Fitzpatrick. He’s a true pro, such a balanced game and a usually steady short game. When he lost The Players to Cam Young, he was a great sport in interviews right after - then he won his next time out. It just feels like his confidence is sky high. The whole Fitzpatrick family is feeling it in 2026, little brother Alex won the India Open a week after Matt’s PGA win. Ball is back in Matt’s court.

Interesting tidbit on Fitzpatrick: he has already won The British Masters, The Nordea Masters, The European Masters (twice), and The Andalucia Masters. Would fit for him to win The Masters after all of that.

Just like Rahm, I believe in Fitzpatrick on Sunday. I think both guys are bringing a good combination of form and experience and I hope/expect at least one to be in contention Sunday when Jim Nantz kicks us off. The course is sounding like it’s going to play really tough (it’s dry, so firm and fast), and I think both of these guys are patient enough to grind out pars and capitalize on a few of the more scoreable holes.

Finishing Position

I’m a little over-exposed here compared to what I’d normally look for. It happens on major weeks I suppose. Quick reasoning with each pick below:

• Rahm Top 10 - he’s my top pick this week

• Bryson Top 10 - I still am unsure if he wins, but he’s been building towards it, expect he stays hot enough

• Xander Top 10 - Mixing current form and history, I expect Xander hangs around like he so often has in majors

• Fitzpatrick Top 20 - decent price on someone I am backing in multiple ways this week

• Reed Top 20 - he’s playing his best golf in years and finished top 20 in 5 out of his last 6 trips to Augusta, great value

Matchups

The best play of the week to me is Zach Johnson Top Senior. Olazabal and Weir will both barely finish Friday, Vijay Singh not far ahead of them. That leaves Angel Cabrera and Fred Couples, both of whom are much older than Johnson. Shop around, but this one feels like a gift.

In another non-standard market, I am taking Robert MacIntyre as Top Lefty. He’s coming into this with some momentum and is a good pick in any market to me. For this one, he’ll only need to beat Akshay, Brian Harman, and Matt McCarty (couple others, but not relevant ones).

Reed over Rose - I saw this one on a few books, so shop around if you can. I’m high on Reed and think Rose might be due for a letdown year. Wrong guy favored at least.

English over McNealy - I wanted some exposure on English, this matchup ended up being where I got it. Both good putters, but I like English in this part of the world.

Hatton over Cam Smith - Hatton hasn’t been great this year, but I just can’t trust Cam Smith anymore. He was one of my favorite golfers years ago, just think he’ll be sure to run into multiple blow-up holes per round.

Make Cut Parlays

I played a ton of these - I’d suggest mixing around guys you like, it’s a great market every year. A course like this does a great job at separating the good from the great, so this market is less volatile than most weeks. Books know this, hence you see the prices so short and the need to parlay more guys than usual to get to a near-even price.

‘Make Cut’ parlays will give more options, but the ‘Miss Cut’ market still have some sure things to build around. Basically any senior is likely to MC, then Brian Campbell really is in over his head at most of these tough courses too.

The couple of plays I didn’t include in the chart but will likely play after this post comes out are Rory to Miss Cut and Morikawa to Miss Cut. Both will be substantially plus odds and there is a clear path for either to MC. Collin got hurt at the worst time for him and we have not seen him healthy since then. Rory had a full week, it’s possible his tank just isn’t full coming into Thursday - and Rory to MC is pretty long, so it doesn’t need a big bet size.

Closing Thoughts

Man am I excited for this. It happens every year: the weather is finally starting to break for real, it’s still light out at 8pm. We can all get our first couple rounds in, breakfast balls and all. Then Masters week starts and it feels official to me - it’s spring.

There’s a phrase we’ll hear 50 times this week, add it to the 1,000 times we’ve already heard it: “A Tradition Unlike Any Other”. It’s corny, but more than that it’s so cool. I bet many of us have more memories around The Masters than all other golf events combined - it just speaks to how important this thing is to so many of us. When we’re all so bought in, each of their traditions just add to the charm.

So this week we’ll see someone put on their green jacket. Before that, we’ll see them cry as hard as an athlete will cry this year. I think it’s one of the most genuine moments in all of sports - a grown man weeping after making a childhood dream come true. It matters so much to everyone, really is unlike any other.

Whatever your traditions are for The Masters, enjoy every minute of it.

Matt / Ziggy