Cue the music, call Jim Nantz, get your weekend snacks ready - it’s Masters Week.
The Masters is not the oldest event or the biggest payday - it’s not even in the top ten paydays of the year. However, there is no debate that it remains the most prestigious event in all of golf. Winning at Augusta turns someone from a ‘famous golfer’ into a ‘famous person’. It was the kick-start that began Tiger-mania for his legendary career. If I asked you to think of Tiger Woods winning an event, or Jack Nicklas winning an event for the older readers, I bet most of you are picturing a win here. Lots of events are important, but not like this one.
The event goes back to 1934, making this the 91st playing of the event. Since it began, the course has typically sorted the field for the best of the best to be contending. I have a ton of detail on the course itself and it’s history in our next section, so I won’t go on and on now about Augusta National.
This is a much smaller field than we see most weeks - only 91 guys will be in the field. The cut is also more aggressive - instead of the top 70 with ties, we’ll only see the top 50 with ties advance to the weekend. There will be a lot of opportunity for Cutline Parlays I hope, as we can somewhat safely project who will be playing Saturday and Sunday.
Going to be a longer email today as a head’s up, but sure that was expected. It will cut off in your inbox, so open web version if you want the full thing in one go.
Augusta National
The land this course sits on was once farmland where fruit was grown. The owner of that plantation lived in what is today the clubhouse. After his death in 1910, the land was left to his sons and wife. Over time, the family decided they wanted to get out of the business and sold it to a hotel owner in Miami. The plan was to build another hotel on this site, but tragedy struck when a hurricane wiped out his Miami property.
The land then sat vacant and unused for nearly a decade before another buyer group came in with plans to build a golf course. This group was led by legendary golfer Bobby Jones, who had just completed his playing career. Even with inflation factored in, they got a steal on this property - they paid $70,000 for it in 1930 and began construction of Augusta National.
Alister MacKenzie was the designer, a physician turned golf architect. On the Mount Rushmore of golf course designers, he is unquestionably one of the faces. The course has been touched up or updated more than any other course in the top 10 historical courses of the world, but it’s still the same layout of holes. He completed his work in late 1932 and the first Masters tournament was played in 1934.
Bobby Jones, retired at the time, played in the first few events, instantly adding credibility and interest to the new course. Horton Smith won that first year and took home a check for $1500 - boy have things changed. It was, and has remained, the only major played at the same course each year.
There is no course in the world that shows a greater correlation between past history and future success than Augusta National. A big part of this correlation comes from how unique of course this is. You can see in the images I’ve included, and likely in your memory, how hilly it is here. Uneven lies are a norm, as is creative shot making. Every single player will at some point be hitting out of the pine straw, one of the more obvious examples of the creative demands. Elevation changes happen off tee shots and into greens on approach - knowing the right spots to leave your next shot is just as important as making good contact.
Augusta will measure out at 7550 yards, making this a long test fitting for a major venue. Par 5’s are on the shorter side, but the Par 4’s are definitely long. Rough is kept short throughout the course, so missing the fairway is less impactful than many weeks. I’ll include Distance in models as well as recent OTT stats. I’ll still value course history and experience more though - being long and on the correct side of the hole is what we’re after.
Approach matters a ton, just like always, but we’ll have lower weights than usual around it. The reason is that every other facet is more demanding than usual. With only so much weight to value, approach will end up being counted about the same as other stat categories. In terms of specific categories or ranges, Proximity from 200+ yards is a main bucket.
We don’t have ShotLink data at Augusta, which often leads to some assumptions around what has actually mattered. However, enough has been documented for us to have a good idea of what moves the needle. Augusta National does not even allow cell phones on the grounds, so not shocking they don’t have the ShotLink cameras all over the course.
The Greens at Augusta
The greens are the area of the course where experience matters the most. It’s not just in reading the break, it’s also going to play heavily into approach success. Basically every putt is tough, so leaving yourself uphill looks is key. Players have said five foot downhill putts can feel like lag putts with fear of overshooting and leaving more than five feet back. Augusta has the highest three-putt percentage and it’s not particularly close, 4.38% of holes played will see one - this means it happens roughly 75 times per round, compared to the tour average of 49 per round.
We haven’t seen many Bent grass greens yet in 2025, but we’re starting with the best here. The undulations on the greens are so severe and the speed devilishly fast. This type of green doesn’t just maintain itself; rather, it’s probably the piece of work Augusta invests the most on.
Each of the 18 receive a personalized treatment and conditioning plan, catered to its slope and possible pin locations. As no two have exactly the same slopes, they all require a different mowing pattern and equipment, but are brushed prior to mowing. The brushing further ensures a consistent cut and purer roll. If this sounds extreme, it's because it is, but this is Augusta, so 'when in Rome'.
The Green Jacket
When someone wins The Masters, they put on their fancy new green jacket - an amazing conversation piece, or flex, if not obviously cool. So are guys just wearing these jackets around the rest of their lives or what? They are not!
After winning, you take the jacket home for one year, but must return it at the following year's event. It’s then stored with the other jackets, and the only way it leaves the property again is if the owner of said jacket wins again. Repeat winners putting on the jacket are then putting on the exact same jacket they wore with their previous wins.
Every winner of The Masters and member of Augusta National has worn a green jacket since the tradition began in 1937. The original purpose of introducing the bright jacket as the club member's uniform is kind of hilarious: wearing one was meant to 'identify club members as reliable sources of information, and to let staff know who would cover expenses' - amazing.
Model Result
Link to the model is here, results below:
Form Fit
The above is pulling the last 12 measured rounds across any time frame - so Bryson’s numbers are from last year’s majors, including his win at Pinehurst. All that to say take him with a grain of salt in this chart. His LIV play in 2025 has been worse than Niemann, Rahm, and Sergio - all guys I would rather bet outright than Bryson at Augusta.
The name I am intrigued by above is Robert MacIntyre. He was in the final four of our Trends article this week, seeing the ball striking form above is even more encouraging. Bob’s a lefty who plays a fade, perfect swing type for Augusta National (Phil, Bubba being the notable recent lefty/fade winners). He’s also shown to be a pressure player, someone I won’t be afraid of collapsing in the final group. Odds and chalk-factor will weigh in on if I play MacIntyre outright, but should find derivative markets to play either way.
Course Fit
Up until the injury early this year, Xander had been looking like a top 3 player in the world. He’s always played well at Augusta, and in all majors really, so we see him top this chart. Xander is a guy who is green across the board, he’ll gain consistently in all areas, one of the most balanced players alive right now. I have zero interest in him based on his suspect driving this year, but if you are a Xander fan I would consider. We’ll just never get a number this long on him most years, so could be value.
What to do with Collin Morikawa…he’s playing amazing golf, week in and week out he’s in the top 5. But we are now approaching a year and a half since he’s actually lifted a trophy. I have a harder time picturing someone breaking that long of a drought at The Masters. Problem is that his play and history is so good - I’ll still go elsewhere, but Collin’s kind of scary to me. He’ll eventually break through again and I know I won’t be on him when he does.
Skill Fit
Justin Thomas has been similar to Morikawa on a more recent scale, he’s frequently playing great but just never winning. Between the two of them, I am more afraid of Collin. JT has the ARG game to consider his floor pretty high, plus added distance. I will worry about him putting on these greens and have seen some blow-up holes from him more than a couple times this year. Decent play in some markets, likely not for me though.
Ludvig will be popular as he usually is. In his Masters debut last year he finished 2nd, pretty much bucking all the trends of first time entrants. It’s hard to ever say Ludvig is a bad play, but I think the price this week in particular is unfair. He has all the skill in the world and will likely win here someday - I just do not think it’s this year. The course was very wet in 2024, so some of the ARG demands were a touch easier. When you see his row above, the ARG is way more red than you’d like for Augusta.
Total Fit
Holy cow is everything lining up for Rory this week. We’ve been here before, going into Augusta he is looking like the best in the world - we have never been this rosy though. He is not only on every chart this week, he’s in the top 3 of every chart. I’m quite sure this is the lowest Total Fit score I have seen in making these things. The game and history is all there, it’s just the pressure he’ll be under that can worry. Price is short, reasonably, so playing him would mean taking only Rory in the outright market…most weeks I am against that, but it’s hard to find a good argument against it right now.
Oh yea, and that Scottie guy is still here and still good at golf. Yes he has not won in 2025, but no one should be shocked if he plays well this week. Going back-to-back is really hard though, so I would rather play Rory if you were just looking to ensure a Sunday sweat.
My Plays
I ultimately did not decide to play Rory outright. I then started to look at guys in the 20/1 range to see who I wanted to build around…other than Rahm, I was not sold on putting money on anyone in this range. If Rahm had been available at 20/1, I would be there though.
Before getting to the plays I did make, had some brief thoughts on the guys I chose to skip over:
Scottie - too short of price, plus doubt he wins back-to-back
Rory - short price, lots of pressure, I’m intimidated by him
Rahm - just wanted a better price
Morikawa - tough to see someone break a losing streak at this event
JT - see above
Xander - great price, suspect form, easy skip
Bryson - if it’s not wet, think Augusta is tough for his ARG game
Ludvig - he’s the cat’s meow, but only 2nd trip and spotty form this year
Hideki - form has cooled to the point a win here this year would shock me
I had full intentions of forming my outright card with 1-2 guys, but I feel like we are not getting prices I wanted for really anyone above. If Rahm were 20/1 and Hideki were 40/1, those would have been clicks. Heck, if Rory had been 10/1 he’d be my only bet. But the market is the market and I’m going to stick to my guns on not wanting to overpay for someone.
Alright, let’s get to the bets! I warned I would be in another state this week, but I was able to get these bets down on Monday - noting that in case you see massive price changes. Always use your best discretion when following someone’s plays at a different price, I’m happy to weigh in on any questions in the comment section as well.
Min Woo Lee Outright Winner (60/1) - risk .17u to win 10.20u (Draftkings)
Min Woo Lee Top 20 - risk 1u to win 1.40u (Draftkings)
We hit a winner on Dr. Chipinski himself just a couple weeks ago, so we have him coming in as confident as ever. Scottie was trying to chase him down on Sunday too, even better for the ole mojo. I’ve liked Min Woo at Augusta every year since he debuted, think his driver/ARG prowess sets him up for a high floor most years.
We saw in the trends post earlier this week that Woosie fits a ton of them, was one of the final guys removed from the breakdown. Price is good at 60/1, would play down to 50/1 even, and I do like the Top 20 at anything plus odds. His history here has gone 14th, MC, 22nd - his game is miles better than it was any of those seasons too.
Robert MacIntyre Outright Winner (60/1) - risk .17u to win 10.20u (Draftkings)
Robert MacIntyre Top 20 - risk 1u to win 1.30u (Draftkings)
The other guy I mentioned in Monday’s post as a good look did in fact make the card. Bobby Mac is another one who fits Augusta and has made huge strides in the past year. Bob’s likely made even more improvements than Min Woo has, evidenced by winning multiple times in 2024.
In his two trips here, he has finished 12th and 23rd, though these were now a couple years back. His last two events saw 9th at The PLAYERS and 11th at API, both signature events with a loaded field. Form is great, history is good, and I think of him as someone who will finish best in more challenging environments. If I had to pick only one of Bob Mac and Min Woo, I would go with Bobby.
Sepp Straka Outright Winner (80/1) - risk .13u to win 10.40u (Fanduel)
Back to Ziggy Golf’s favorite golfer of 2025, Sepptic Straka. The good times have kept on rolling for Sepp, someone I feel is still somehow under the radar despite his play obviously notching up a level. He’s played here three times with finishes in order of 30th, 46th, 16th. Pretty solid for his first few trips and love seeing last year was his best finish.
His T2G game has been exquisite this year, gaining massively in all but one event. In 4 straight events, he has gained at least 4 shots on approach, kind of steadily spiking with his irons. The putter is less consistent, but we are looking to find guys with spike week potential with the flat stick, and that’s definitely Sepp. Additionally, he has gained putting in 2/3 trips to Augusta. Keep up the ball striking, sink some putts, don’t back down with pressure on Sunday. I found Sepp at 80/1, would play all the way down to 60/1 if we had to.
Joaquin Niemann Outright Winner (40/1) - risk .25u to win 1u (Draftkings)
I know Niemann has been a dud in majors so far in his career, but I also firmly believe that will change someday. He’s far too talented to keep struggling on these stages. For Augusta, I like Jaco’s distance, but love his irons and high ball flight more. Bent was always his best surface back on PGA and ARG was never much of an issue. His price opened at 30/1, which would have been a pass for me. At 40/1 though, I see potential value on it.
Will Zalatoris Outright Winner (65/1) - risk .16u to win 10.40u (Draftkings)
Price play again here. Zal has been great at Augusta his whole career really: in three trips, he has finished 2nd, 6th, and 9th. You could be thinking ‘yea well he used to be good’ - fair, but that 9th was just last year when he was much worse than he is today. Form is not as encouraging when we only look at results (47th, 30th, 22nd in his last 3) but becomes a lot rosier when we look at his SG APP on those (+3.4, +5.1, +4.5). He still has plus distance and I love his ball flight for these firm/fast greens. Putter will likely be his undoing, but I think it’s another value play based on the price.
Sergio Garcia Outright Winner (80/1) - risk .12u to win 9.60u (Fanduel)
It might sound surprising if you have not been paying attention to LIV, but Sergio has been the best performer in 2025 on their tour. He grabbed a win in Asia and has otherwise played outstanding and finished top 10 in all LIV events. Obviously he has won at Augusta before too, so the course history is good. Possible this is dead by Thursday afternoon, though I doubt that and think there’s still value on this reduced price.
Taylor Pendrith over Denny McCarthy - risk 1u to win .91u (Caesars)
A lot of the matchups I liked were just not fairly priced - I won’t play any matchup with worse than -135 odds unless it seems like a true slam dunk. One that did jump out was Pendrith over Denny. Pendrith has been a great ball striker for years, doing it again this year. Denny has gotten it done with accuracy and putting, he is doing it again this year as well. I would just give a massive edge to Pendrith on distance and subsequently Par 5 scoring, so I think this is worth the look with odds being even between the two.
I’m going to play a handful of ‘Make Cut Parlays’ below. They have been my best non-outright market in 2025 and my best historically at The Masters. While I have 5 different three-man combinations, I think you can pursue this market however you feel most comfortable (meaning a handful of bets or one massive one).
Scottie, Adam Scott, Robert MacIntyre Make Cut - risk 1u to win 1.07u (Bet365)
Scottie will make the cut and I covered Bob Mac above. Adam Scott has the history and form going to also feel quite safe.
Rory, Berger, Henley Make Cut - risk 1u to win 1.09u (Bet365)
Rory will make the cut like Scottie above. Henley and Berger are both shorter hitters, I can’t see them winning this but also think their short games and accuracy keep the floor high.
Rahm, Reed, Min Woo Lee Make Cut - risk 1u to win 1u (Bet365)
Rahm should be safe on making the cut and I covered Min Woo above. For Patty Reed, it’s a lot like Sergio - great form and good history. Truth be told, I was close to Reed outright instead of Sergio.
Morikawa, Sepp, Corey Conners Make Cut - risk 1u to win .98u (Bet365)
Morikawa will make the cut and I covered Sepp above. For Conners, it is a similar feel to Berger - no chance he wins this, but the form has been solid enough that I see the weekend in store for him.
JT, Fleetwood, Sergio Make Cut - risk 1u to win .96u (Bet365)
I covered Sergio above. The other two are similar in that I do feel they could contend but doubt they can win. Garcia brings the odds up on this, would encourage including him with any other two if you were fading JT or Tommy.
Phil Mickelson Make Cut - risk 1u to win .83u (Draftkings)
This was my first bet made this week. Phil is playing much better golf in 2025 than the past two years and even then he was good at Augusta. Of course there is a chance he struggles, but we have not seen that happen this year. If you can’t find a price of -130 or better, I would either skip it or parlay him with someone safer.
Parlay ALL Make Cut plays above - risk .50u to win 25u (Bet365)
Just in case…
Max Homa to MISS Cut - risk 1u to win 1.20u (Bet365)
Homa and his longterm caddy split up last week, another sign of how bad things have gotten. I don’t know if Max would make the cut in a Korn Ferry event right now, so this was an easy bet at plus odds. Hate to see someone lose it like this, we can try to make a couple bucks off it though.
Closing Thoughts
The Masters is not just my favorite event in golf, it’s my favorite sporting event of the entire year. Obviously I love golf, so that’s a big driver in my rankings. However, I think the main thing that draws so many of us to this event is really the history. Of course we remember Tiger Woods winning, many of you may remember some of Jack’s wins as well, but that’s not the history I mean.
Tentpole events like The Masters bring traditions on a scale rarely seen with golf. It’s not memories from a buddy’s trip, shared by just those who were golfing on the trip…it’s not memories of caddying or playing on high school teams, shared by the select few who did it. The memories this event can foster are shared by anyone and everyone. I think the fact that spring gets into full swing at this time of year only enhances the nostalgia growing year over year in our minds.
So this week we’ll see someone put on their green jacket. Before that, we’ll see them cry as hard as an athlete will cry this year as they embrace their wife. There will be no talk about a LIV/PGA merger, no ads for TGL, no comments about the purse size, really just no other ‘noise’ at all. It’s a grown man weeping in earnest about making a childhood dream come true.
Life is short. We spend so much time being busy (our jobs, our families, our bills, our health, etc.) that it feels the record of our lives can start spinning faster and faster, the once melodic music becoming a frantic blur. Having an opportunity to slow down and focus on something that both brings back old memories and allows us to make new ones is not something we’ll find everyday - for me personally, this is as good as it gets.
Whatever your traditions are for The Masters, enjoy every minute of it.
Matt / Ziggy
Am I crazy or is Sepp not on the model anywhere? Wondering what his total fit is
I don’t know how you got plus odds for Homa to miss the cut. My odds are nowhere near that. Hope you bet the farm