The Arnold Palmer Invitational

Yay Lemonade and Tea!

Hey gang!

Another weird winner last week at PGA National, a course that played so easy on Thursday it barely resembled the Honda Classics of yester year.

This week we have a ton of golf! This preview will focus on the Arnold Palmer Invitational, henceforth called The API. We also have the Puerto Rico Open as an alternate PGA event, a LIV event, another DP event in Africa, and one more LPGA event in Asia. Wall to wall golf!

Stats to Value

We’re back to a massive purse again, and with it will come the strength of field. All the big names will be in Orlando this week for Arnie’s event. Other than the huge payday, our future winner will leave with a sweet red cardigan. It’s not a green jacket, but it’s still cool.

Arnold Palmer fell in love with Bay Hill in the early 70’s. When the Tour wanted to organize an event in his name, this was an easy pick for him. It’s been a regular stop on the schedule since 1979. Ahead of the 2009 event, Palmer led a redesign of the course, very similar to Jack and PGA National last week.

I assume all of you know who Arnold Palmer was, likely you’ve had the drink named after him too. Supposedly he mixed the first one at home in Latrobe, PA and knew he was on to something right away. I have a hard time believing no one had mixed the two most common summer drinks before him, but he definitely popularized it. I found an endearing quote from him on the idea of ordering a drink named after yourself:

"I was embarrassed to ask for an Arnold Palmer. I always said, 'Can I have an iced tea and put about a third of it in lemonade. And they said, 'Oh, you want an Arnold Palmer!’ I just finally said, well I won't fight the battle any more, I'll just ask for an Arnold Palmer. I think maybe they won't know who I am."

In his career, Arnie won 62 PGA tournaments and 7 majors. More impactful in my opinion, he was the first serious star when golf was initially being televised. The game had greats before Palmer, but no one had a greater impact on making golf a mainstream sport. Tiger Woods is compared to Jack Nicklaus most often, but his role in the game is much more similar to Arnie’s. Just like Tiger, Arnold Palmer was everyone’s favorite golfer of his time and led to an uptick in national interest in the game. You’ll see a lot of clips of him during coverage this week - something I’ve noticed over the years, the guy was almost always smiling. The charisma of Frank Sinatra in America’s first golf superstar led to a very long career in the game.

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At 7450 yards, Bay Hill falls into the “long” category of courses. Fairways are wide enough to land consistently for much of the field, but misses off the tee will be more penalized than usual. The rough is kept very long and very thick - this leads to poor tee shots compounding the challenge into an unworkable approach shot. From a stats point of view, I think we have to value distance with the length of course. However, past winners Molinari and Hatton definitely do not fit the “bomber” category like Rory, Bryson, and Scottie.

Approach play will be integral as always. The difference between fairway and rough is massive and I think everyone will be in the rough at some point. Additionally, Bay Hill funnels a whopping 30% of approach shots into the “Over 200” bucket, a stat we’ll definitely weight highly this week. Lastly, each of the four par 3’s is over 200 yards in length. They’re not great birdie opportunities for anyone.

As you’d expect with the length of course and rough, GIR% is lower than usual. Green sizes are 7500 square feet. Tour average is around 6000, so simply landing on the green alone does not ensure two-putt. With any type of miss leading to possible issue, I’m choosing to value total bogey avoidance.

The greens are Bermuda, the norm for the area. Most Bermuda is fast, but Bay Hill stands a notch above. I’m going to be weighting Bermuda Putting from the past two years from a Course Fit perspective. I’m more concerned about driving than putting, but I do expect to only bet guys with either a great Bermuda putting history or scorching hot form with the short stick.

Model Result

Link to the model is here, results below:

Form Fit

Aaron Rai is once again in good form, surprisingly even with his putter. Bay Hill definitely has some European qualities to it, even moreso if it’s going to be as windy as expected. Rai has won events over there, including at Renaissance Club in Scotland (course listed as a possible comparable). I am not saying we fade him by any means, but the distance demands will scare me off him outright.

Rory’s driver has always been his biggest weapon and now he’s somehow hitting it better than ever. He’s ranked #1 in recent OTT, but that does not illustrate by how wide of margin it’s been. He’s my favorite guy this week if price did not matter - course history, course fit, and current form all point to him having a great week.

Course Fit

Matt Fitzpatrick is someone who used to make his career on these hard courses, bonus point for it being on Bermuda. Then a couple years ago he won a major and just does not seem to have kept the momentum after that. I hate fading someone who measures like this good of course fit with history, would still consider it based solely on how bad he has been looking lately. At least would cross him off your list to consider betting on.

Sungjae is another who has played really well on tough Bermuda courses over time. He’s also another who seems to have lost something lately. For Sungjae, he has missed two cuts in a row now, something rarely seen from him - he’s more likely to finish 30th ten times in a row than miss two cuts in my opinion. Between he and Fitzpatrick, I likely would prefer to fade Sungjae. In my eyes both should be skipped, we have better form and comparable history in others on the board.

Skill Fit

Xander wins the Skill Fit, his first week back in the field. For that reason, I am out. This is not even a course he’s done that well on in the past, think we should be able to find a matchup where we can fade Xander in favor of someone we know is coming in with better form and zero injury concerns.

Ludvig Aberg appears above and will be popular at Bay Hill from now until he retires. It’s a lot like Torrey Pines in that if you were designing courses to give Lud a leg up, they are it. His driver can somewhat come close to Rory’s, at least beat the rest of the field, and I like that he now has a marquee win under his belt and less pressure moving forward. The price will ultimately scare me off, but you could do a lot worse than starting your card with Aberg.

Total Fit

Clear top two most weeks on Tour, certainly feels that way going into API as well. Between the two of them, I like Rory better, but won’t be entertaining either sub-10/1 guy on an outright.

My Plays

• Justin Thomas Outright Winner (28/1) - risk .34u to win 9.52u (Fanduel)

• Justin Thomas Top 20 - risk 1u to win .83u (Draftkings)

Going back to the well on JT (insert clown putting on makeup meme). The play has just stayed so steady and I think we are getting a decent price compared to much of the field. His history here is short: 49th in 2015, 21st in 2023, and 12th last year. The improving finishes over the past two years is encouraging, but the bet is still centered around his current form and believing he will win again someday (trend of my picks this week).

His last time out (Genesis) he gained 8 shots on approach en route to a 9th place. The event before that (WM) he gained 5 shots on approach and finished 6th. He’s added speed/distance to his driver, so the length will be less of an issue this year. Lastly, should this become as windy as they are saying in look-aheads, I like JT’s ability to scramble around greens. I’m adding the top 20 bet on all my outrights this week as well.

• Patrick Cantlay Outright Winner (30/1) - risk .33u to win 9.90u (Fanduel)

• Patrick Cantlay Top 20 - risk 1u to win .91u (Draftkings)

The next former winner who is playing great golf will be Patrick Cantlay. Just like JT, I feel sure Cantlay returns to a winner’s circle sometime this year. His history is even shorter: 4th in 2023, 36th last year. For him, 2024 was a pretty rough season, so I am not reading into that result as Bay Hill being bad for him.

Cantlay can get nuclear hot with the putter, needed for him to win. Last event he gained over 6 and he actually gained putting last year when he finished 36th - encouraging signs for the timing. His irons have been much improved in 2025, kind of the key to his results. He’s always been one of the best Par 5 scorers in the world as well. Add this up and there is just a clear path to see Cantlay contending. It’s been a while, but the guy answers the bell when he has the chance as well (beating Bryson at Caves years ago, Ryder Cup moments, etc.). I don’t like him personally, but he has win equity still in my opinion.

• Tommy Fleetwood Outright Winner (30/1) - risk .33u to win 9.90u (Draftkings)

• Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 - risk 1u to win .87u (Draftkings)

My last outright is not on a former PGA Tour winner - more like it’s on a guy who cannot seem to get a PGA Tour win. Fleetwood has somehow still never won on Tour, but he has won plenty globally. Sometimes those global wins have really weak fields, but most of Tommy’s were in events where Rory and Hatton were there, so definitely respectable wins.

The thinking on Tommy is largely weather related. If we were expecting 4 clear days of easy scoring, I would never bet him. However, reports are saying Thursday and Sunday could be dicey at time of writing. I could see him hanging around until Sunday, then being the only guy to shoot under par and backdoor his way into a first PGA Tour win. As the conditions get worse, his chances get better. I played the top 20 bet on him just the other two, hoping that no more than 1 of them completely bombs out.

• Rory McIlroy Top 10 - risk 1u to win .77u (Bet365)

I was REALLY close to not betting any of those guys above and only betting Rory to win the API. At the end of the day, I did not want to betray my usual strategy and could not click submit on someone at under 10/1 to win a PGA event. That being said, he’s finishing top 10.

The guy is driving it insanely good right now and I don’t mind him in wind. He’s not a bad weather player like Fleetwood or Lowry, but I don’t see that lifting enough other guys to hurt Rory’s finishing position. I would also endorse a top 5 bet if you wanted to roll the dice on a larger payout, but think 1.77 is a fair price on what I believe to be a very safe wager.

• Ludvig Aberg over Collin Morikawa - risk 1u to win .80u (MGM)

I am playing a lot of matchups this week, so will be brief. Ludvig’s fit on this course is amazing and I think he’s only gaining confidence right now. Morikawa is who I would say is most impacted by windy conditions, so I could see this being close until Sunday when Ludvig pulls away.

• Aaron Rai over Nick Taylor - risk 1u to win .80u (MGM)

Rai is going to find fairways, so I am not as worried about his distance in this matchup. Taylor is also not a long hitter, which helps. A bit worried about how hot Taylor has been but am going to stick with my stance on Rai this week, just a good player to have when conditions are bad.

• Shane Lowry over Corey Conners - risk 1u to win .80u (ESPN)

Lowry has been in great form and has thrived in Florida over his career. Conners has done well at Bay Hill as well, but we have not seen the same ball striking from him that we normally have. Over all of 2025 so far, Conners is negative on approach - this is the first time in his career that any season has dipped into the red and signals that something’s been off with him.

• Stephen Jaeger over Joe Highsmith - risk 1u to win .87u (ESPN)

Jaeger fits the profile at Bay Hill really well. Highsmith just won his first PGA event last week. That’s a perfect recipe for someone to come in and play middle-of-the-road golf and still cash this bet, love fading a guy coming off a career-changing win.

• Aldrich Potgieter over Max Homa - risk 1u to win 1.16u (Bookmaker)

I had to go to offshore to find a play on fading Max Homa I liked. It’s sad, but the guy is still so lost. His last 3 events have shown these losses on ball striking: -4.7, -5.9, -4.3. No amount of good putting can save that type of striking, but even there he is basically break-even so far this year. On the flip side, Potgieter is going to have such a leg-up with his distance, the only guy who can outdrive Rory from time to time.

• Russell Henley over Sungjae Im - risk 1u to win .91u (Fanduel)

Henley played well enough last week to think that his form carries into Bay Hill. Sungjae has an amazing history at this course but I am choosing to fade the recent form. Additionally, Sungjae just looks so upset when bad weather comes, so I think there’s a chance we see him struggle Thursday and/or Sunday. I saw this play on multiple books, so it is worth shopping around for best price (FD for me).

Degen Corner

I have a ton of outrights played all over the world this week. Obviously you should play only what interests you, but I personally enjoy tracking these as the weekend goes on to compliment my main PGA bets.

I’m going to use a screenshot instead of typing these all out. If someone wants more detail on what sportsbook I used for anything, leave me a comment or reply to the email.

Closing Thoughts

We have a ton of golf ahead this weekend! The API should and will be the main event, though if I have someone live in the others I will no doubt be finding a way to stream them as well. Get ready to see a ton of clips of Arnold Palmer too.

I saw an alert today about the broadcast trying some new things out this week after fan feedback. They are claiming to have fewer commercials planned and more caddy-player discussion being aired. I have extreme doubts on that first one, but do have hope for the second. When they show a 45 second conversation between a player and caddy before a key shot, we know a lot more about these guys. It’s kind of backwards to encourage fans to have rooting interests, then rarely give a window into player’s personalities. My hope is that this is both entertaining for a watch and enlightening in hearing how some guys approach difficult shots and situations.

We’re also approaching the time of year when many readers will be dusting off their clubs and getting out to play themselves. Between watching PGA and playing golf, I am going to pick playing golf every single week except when The Masters is on - all this to say enjoy the event this weekend. Before we know it we’ll be watching less pro golf for a bit. The PGA knows that, so hopefully the broadcast adjustments land well.

That will do it! If anyone has questions on bets I have placed or plays you are considering, leave me a comment or reply to the email. As always, best of luck with all your bets.

Matt / Ziggy