Scottish Open Preview

Groundskeeper Willie's Favorite Event

Hey golf fans!

Tough loss on Sunday as Grillo could not get past Brian Campbell in a playoff. When you bet golf every week, you’re bound to lose some close calls. Hats off to Campbell though, guy barely outdrives anyone reading this email yet has now won twice on the PGA Tour this year. Lots of ways to get the little ball into the hole I guess.

Now we’ll start our two week trip to the UK, starting with the Scottish Open. Usual preview and bets are below, bit longer ‘degen corner’ card than usual with one of the heaviest golf weekends on the calendar. Let’s get started…

Stats to Value

The Scottish Open sounds like it should be one of the oldest events in the world - I mean, golf started here. However, this thing only goes back to 1972. Additionally, the current event looks nothing like those first ones. 2022 was the first year of this being considered a PGA event (technically it’s a joint event between the PGA and DP World Tours). Before this, it had been a top 5 event on the DP (Euro) Tour since 2017 when the purse went up.

Renaissance Club began hosting in 2019. Before that, Loch Lomond had hosted a majority of them, but the host changed frequently, common for any country’s “Open”.

In a land full of 100+ year old courses, The Renaissance Club stands out as a 2008 Tom Doak design. It sits in between Muirfield and North Berwick, two of Scotland’s most famous courses, on 300 acres along the Firth of Forth. It lacks the history of it’s two neighbors, but this course has received glowing reviews since opening, both from locals and golf magazines. It’s public and playable by anyone.

As is always the case with golf course design, a very wealthy person had to be behind a course being built. Jerry Sarvadi made his fortunes in the aviation fuel industry (sounds lucrative) and is a lifelong golf lover. He signed a 99 year lease with Scotland for land in 2005, then contracted American designer Tom Doak to build a championship level course.

Doak is one of the more successful designers of modern times, a protege of Pete and Alice Dye, names any reader should recognize at this point. Tom Doak has not built many courses played by professionals though - he’s more designing interesting courses for people like us to play. He had never done a course in Scotland, but it was certainly a bucket-list item for him just like it is for every great course architect.

One of the reasons Doak was chosen was his reputation for leaving as much of the natural land as possible. The natural land here is a bit different than much of Scotland though, this was an evergreen forest since well before man. The layout was carved through that forest and has an undulating sand-based terrain that includes ancient rock walls and ocean cliffs. The fact that this land is not exactly the same as Muirfield or North Berwick helps give it a recognizable character in a country rich with golf history. For Doak, it’s possibly the crowning achievement of his career.

The course will play at just over 7200 yards for the pros this week. It’s not too long, and we’ve seen shorter hitters win here, but I think distance will make a difference. There’s not too much danger off the tee and rough is less penal than most of the US courses we see each week. Bunkers are intimidating, typical for the country, there just are not enough of them to worry much about going with a bomb-and-gouge. I’ll look at recent driving stats too, distance the one to value most though.

These European courses often lack reliable ShotLink data, this one included. Without it, we have no data on what proximity ranges feature the most commonly. I’m going to value approach as much as I usually do, just need to stay more broad in how we look at it.

The greens at Renaissance Club are absolutely massive, it’s going to lead to a very high GIR%. Even guys finishing in the 20’s will hit more greens than their average event, so the volume of short game scrambling is very low.

The large greens are going to be where most scrambling shots take place. 3-putt percentages have been nearly double the weekly average. We’ll want to factor 3-putt avoidance into models this week maybe more than any other week. The grass type from tee to green is all Fescue. We don’t often see this in America, but it’s the most common grass in Scotland. It rolls slooooow. The pros get so used to playing lightning fast greens that the change to something like this can be tough for many of them. Greens are undulated and often have tiers to them as another complexity around lag putting. I’ll be looking at a variety of putting stats in model this week with all these things considered.

Model Result

Link to the model is here, results below:

Form Fit

Scottie may not be winning at the clip he did last year but the wins have still been coming. He’s not really the prototypical European-style golfer in any way, of course he could still win in Europe anytime he tees it up (Olympics last year). I won’t be looking his way in any markets due to the price - also think it’s easier than usual even to skip over the ‘without Scottie/Rory’ market this week.

Sam Burns has finished top 20 in 7 of his last 8 events, so it makes sense we see him high on the Form chart. Even more encouraging, over his last 4 events he has gained shots APP, which is not the career-norm for him. He has not lost shots putting since February, that is the career-norm. But if we see his plus distance, steady iron play, and his typically good putter, I feel we have someone ready to win again. When I started the week, he was my first thought coming in.

Course Fit

Rory has finished 1st and 4th in his trips for this event, a decent course history I would say. The comp courses are looking at anything else played in Europe, again a category dominated by Rory. He can destroy this course and field if he is clicking everywhere, but I do not see that happening right now. Something is off with him, I believe in his personal life - either way, a guy struggling with his shots and his temper is a bad combo. I don’t have the fortitude to fade Rory, but I can say he’s an easy skip for me this week.

Who is not an easy skip is Tommy Fleetwood. Odds are offensively short and we just saw him gag away a sure-fire win - still, it’s hard not to like him this week. I’ve skipped him most of the past three years and know in my head it’s best to keep doing that, especially at these odds. But in my heart I feel like he has to win sometime and the form/course fits are so so strong. Head>Heart in sports betting, so I won’t bet him outright - other markets should be a good look though.

Skill Fit

JT has played some great golf for the majority of 2025, these stats looking only at that timeframe. The past couple months have been less consistent though, starting with most recent: 9th, MC, 31st, MC, 2nd. Obviously still contending, but mixing in some awful events too. The most surprising thing has been 10 straight events gaining shots putting. I like to see that, so JT should get some consideration this week. He’s not for me outright, but I do think he could be a DFS option that’s much less popular than guys around his price.

Xander looked like he was on the cusp of putting all the pieces together after his injury, then played horribly last time out at The Travelers - he lost shots in all 4 categories, woof. No chance of me going to him at his price after an event like that. He’s won on this course though, and of course won the British Open last year, but we’re not getting a big enough discount on him to warrant any interest.

Total Fit

Bulleting a quick thought on each of the top 10:

• Scottie - the best in the world, may not be a perfect fit here though

• Rory - the perfect fit, but trouble between the ears will scare me off

• Fox - career year so far, don’t see him winning twice in five weeks though

• Tommy - hard to resist but we will, consider finishing position bets

• Spaun - regression is coming soon, would skip over him

• Burns - my top pick this week all things considered

• Knapp - could see it, question the Euro-style fitting him though

• Nicolai - charts better than finishes, still a believer in both Hojgaards

• Greyserman - skills fits the demand, sneaky good DFS option

• JT - the hot putter intrigues me, would consider him in any market

My Plays

I did not see much in the way of matchup bets, so it’s a bit smaller of a card after the outrights. Top 20 has been a down market for me this year, but positive in previous years, so I am going to keep firing there for now - wanted to note the bad year there in case it helps others know where to maybe avoid tailing me.

In the outright market, I decided to build around two mid-priced guys I liked when the week began. Instead of taking a strong position on a shorter guy like Fleetwood or Morikawa, I think spreading it around is a wiser strategy when we’re seeing variables like Scotland’s weather.

• Sam Burns Outright Winner (40/1) - risk .25u to win 10u (Draftkings)

• Sam Burns Top 20 - risk 1u to win 1.60u (MGM)

First guy in mind Monday morning was my first click. I am not really a Sam Burns fan per se, but we’ve been seeing some great play from him. As mentioned above, he’s finished top 20 in 7 of his last 8 events. Of the last four, he’s gaining on approach; putting gains go way back and are at the root of why I like him this week.

He’s played this event twice, a 66th in 2022 and a 16th in 2023. The winning score in 2022 was -7, winning in 2023 a -15…I expect easier conditions this week, something that looks much more like 2023. Burns is someone I want when scores are low, not a major-type of test, so this lines up well for him.

I think we can count on plus driver distance and good putting, creating a high floor. If the irons stay above average as they’ve been the past month, we have a contender. Burns narrowly missed winning in Canada and played great after that, so I think he is knocking on the door of a win instead of missing his chance.

• Matt Fitzpatrick Outright Winner (45/1) - risk .22u to win 9.90u (Draftkings)

• Matt Fitzpatrick over JJ Spaun - risk 1u to win .80u (Fanduel)

I bet this one Monday morning as well. Since then, Fitzy has gone on to be the most bet player in the event and odds have gotten worse. With those things in mind, I would not suggest tailing this one unless you find at least 40/1 or longer - even then, the chalk factor is discouraging. That being said, there is a lot to like.

Matt was playing some poor golf, most of last year and really everything up until May of this year. Then he turned a corner and is striking it a lot better. Some events still showing negative ball striking (-6.7 at US Open, -2.2 at Memorial), but the most recent are super encouraging (+4.9 at Travelers, +11.9 at Rocket Mortgage). Unfortunately for him, he lost shots putting in those good ball striking events.

Now we’re over in Scotland and the putting should feel more familiar. Fitz is a plus putter on all surfaces in his career, but most of his career wins have come in Europe. It might surprise some of you to learn Fitz has won 10 times in his globally, only 2 of them on the PGA Tour. I believe in him when he’s in contention. Three trips to Renaissance Club have seen a 6th, MC, 39th. It’s not as safe as Burns to me, but enough points to it being a good play - again, only tail this if you have similar odds, and even then I am put off by him being the most tipped golfer on Twitter.

• Adam Scott Outright Winner (55/1) - risk .18u to win 9.90u (Bet365)

I was hoping for better odds on this play, but we got good enough with the 55. Obviously Adam Scott is a very accomplished golfer on the back-end of his career, but we’re seeing him strike it really well as of late - he’s gained tee-2-green in five straight events. The last two specifically saw gains of 4+ on approach.

History here is mixed - MC in 2023, 2nd place last year. Each of those years were on the easier scoring side, so not a lot to take on his chances when this is playing easy vs hard. My play on him is rooted in the recent form and feeling this is a place an older, more experienced guy can succeed.

• Mav McNealy Outright Winner (80/1) - risk .13u to win 10.40u (Caesars)

Mav’s been playing the best golf of his career the past year, highlighted by a win last Fall. I like his plus distance and putting prowess, much like Burns. The price on Mav is pretty long because he’s really only won the one time and has limited experience in Europe - I just think the course fit is strong and the form has maintained, so it’s worth the look.

He’s played this only once, a 22nd in 2022. Focusing on his fit, I like the distance of course but I also like the comparable windy courses, namely Pebble Beach. Scotland and California are not remotely similar turfs, but the wind swept holes and slower rolling greens are a match. For those that are not familiar, Mav has been a lifelong member of Pebble Beach, always plays well there. I have doubt he can win against this strong of field, but I’ll take that risk at 80/1.

• Nicolai Hojgaard Outright Winner (90/1) - risk .11u to win 9.90u (Draftkings)

Rolling out both Hojgaards this week. I realize they have not had the results this year to back up how highly I think of them, but now we’re going to their side of the world. Starting with Nicolai, he’s won 3 times in Europe in his career (the twins are still only 24 years old). He’s a great driver like his brother and has spiked on approach in two of his last three (gaining over 4 shots).

I’ve noticed that these guys will let us know almost immediately if they will hang around or not, very much boom or bust players. If you knew you were going to be paying attention Thursday morning, you could wait and live bet one of them (whichever starts well, they never play well at the same time).

• Rasmus Hojgaard Outright Winner (90/1) - risk .11u to win 9.90u (Draftkings)

The other Hojgaard on the card, Rasmus has won 5 times in Europe through his career. Both brothers are good drivers, Rasmus the better putter. His play has been notably worse than Nicolai’s in the US, but I can rationalize that by saying it’s his first year on the PGA Tour compared to Nicolai’s second.

The hope for either brother is that the return to Europe brings more familiar play, mainly on the greens for Rasmus. They’re priced at 90/1 for a reason, mostly their form, but the over-arching feelings about them have not changed for me. I think both of them are winners on the PGA Tour at some point and have the games to play really any course in the world. Rasmus seems to find the blow-up holes more often unfortunately, but there is more win equity here than anyone else priced in this range and it’s not particularly close.

• Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 - risk 1u to win 1.26u (MGM)

I would not bet him to win, but this feels like a safe play this week. Tommy’s form is seeing 5 top 20’s in his last 7 events; the course history shows finishes of 4th, 6th, 34th. It’s often not rocket science with him, great finishing position guy despite the chokes on Sundays when he has a chance. Shop around for this if you play it, I saw odds ranging from -110 to +126 - those margins will dictate a profitable vs a losing year.

Degen Corner

Massive Degen Corner this week, really strong weekend of golf ahead for us. Breaking them down in quick blurbs…

LPGA will play their 4th major of the year (they have 5) in France this week. Easy call to skip Jeeno and Nelly for me, instead looking to add a couple proven winners (Lydia Ko and JY Ko) and a Japanese star (Yamashita). I had some room left after that and have seen decent play from Megan Khang so I used it there.

LIV plays in Andalucia (Spain) at Valderrama, the best course in Spain and one of the best in Europe. Gut reaction might say Rahm wins here, but the price is gross and I actually think he’ll be a safe skip. Instead of a single bullet look, I am sprinkling around the middle of the board similar to the LPGA. Cam Smith, Oosty, Abe Ancer, and Anirban Lahiri all have won plenty in their careers and have the positional short game I am looking for.

The PGA has an alternate event with the ISCO, held in Kentucky. I am making Michael Thorbjornson my main play there, one of the favorites in the field. He was a college star like Aberg who did not take off right when he got the to the pros. Now we’re seeing some really consistent, good play from him (4th at Rocket, 21st at Deere). Enter a weaker field and I believe he can win if he keeps up the striking. I also added current college-star Jackson Koivun after a great John Deere and Kris Ventura, a young Norwegian with distance for days.

On the Senior Tour, I took a small position on two guys with good recent form, Hensby and Caron. This is the least exciting tour to watch, so will leave it at those names and good form.

Lastly, in Korn Ferry, I am going back to Neal Shipley (hit outright on him earlier this year), Ross Steelman, and Christo Lamprecht. All have shown good form, would back Shipley is you only played one of them.

Closing Thoughts

Awesome weekend of golf ahead! We’re seeing courses in Scotland, France, Spain, and the USA - I kind of wish it was not so Europe-heavy just so we could spread the events out through the days a bit better, but either way I always love seeing courses outside of my home country. Then next week we’ll have our final major of the year, The Open (or The British Open if you are my age or older).

There is something else on my mind this week though, so bear with me for a longer edition of ‘closing thoughts’…

The “Big Beautiful Bill” is moving through government processes on it’s way to changing some things in the country. I really don’t want to talk politics in these pages…however, there is an element of this bill that will impact sports betting and I think anyone reading a gambling blog needs to be aware.

Currently, when you are taxed on gambling wins, you can deduct 100% of your losses - logical. What this means is if you risk a total of $100,000 in 2025 across all of your bets and you win $50,000 and lose $50,000, your net profit is $0. In this case, you would not owe anything in taxes or need to claim anything. The big change is that the bill states you will only be able to deduct 90% of your losses starting in 2026.

Using the example above, you win $50,000 and lose $50,000 again in 2026 - but when doing the math, you could only deduct $45,000 (90% of 50K) of your losses. This means the government would consider you profiting $5000 in 2026, an amount that would likely lead to roughly $2000 paid in tax (tax rates for gambling are often higher than your standard income tax). So keeping with this example - you, as a break-even bettor, would owe $2000 in tax for the privilege of gambling legally in America despite making zero money from the venture.

If you are thinking this does not impact you because you don’t have a high unit size, think again. Should you ever have a good year at any unit size, the taxman will be taking more than is fair. If you have a large unit size, profiting will become impossible. If you’re thinking ‘well I just won’t claim those’, know that legal books have your information and do their own tax reporting, everything is auditable - not to say you will get in trouble for skipping it, but the route to trouble is clearly present.

Editor’s Note: a point of clarification - you are supposed to claim your gambling profit today on your taxes, could be sports betting, poker, blackjack, etc. If you win over $5000 in one bet/session, that is often taxed in the moment - for smaller wins that accumulate over time, you are responsible for claiming. Should you not do this, honestly you likely do not run into trouble - that being said, you would technically be committing tax fraud. If you never get audited, you’re going to be fine. If you were to get audited, this would be found since your SSN is typically stored by legal sportsbooks.

I do not mean this as hyperbole: if the bill’s details around gambling stay as they are written today, legal gambling will be dead by this time next year or before. I personally would be returning to offshore sites where I bet in bitcoin, would pursue old fashioned bookies (usually called pay-per-heads or PPH’s in today’s terminology). In both of these situations, the government has no visibility into what you are doing or how much you are winning, there is nothing for them to cross-check in an audit…I’ll let you infer what I mean by that, but the point is the government tax dollars around gambling will plummet from greatly reduced volume.

Gambling is the new cigarette for our government - there is no tax change that will illicit sympathy from the masses, it’s seen as a “sin tax” type of thing and an easy target for more milking. I get that, but these changes will have the opposite effect - they are clearly written and agreed to by people with zero clue of how this industry works or the other options that will quickly come back around. I’ve bet for over 20 years, but it’s only been legal in my state for 2.5 years - acting like customers have no other option but to grin and take it is short-sighted and just incorrect. If legal marijuana suddenly tripled their prices, best believe we would be seeing street dealings come back around…this is the same principle.

With the bill moving quickly, there is little hope of the wording changing in the legislation. There is a chance the IRS issues some clarification details that adjust the process in some way - I won’t be holding my breath. Fairly, there are much larger impacts and groups impacted in the bill, I just think gambling issues will not make priority and time will quickly lead us into 2026. If/when that time comes, I’ll be happy to assist anyone in finding offshore books you can trust - for what it’s worth, I actually found those books to be a better product than the legal books, just with zero advertising and clunkier user interfaces. Ironically, it’s been legal books that invest heavily into user interfaces; it’s not to beat the competition, it’s geared to increase your level of addiction, similar to UI changes in any social media app.

I debated including some hyperlinks to other articles on this topic, but honestly there are tons of good ones - any gambling follow you have should be talking about this, and if they are not then I would question if that person is actually making bets themselves or simply talking about betting (no shame in that, but would suggest never tailing someone who is not also placing bets with their hard-earned dollars).

With that off my chest, we’ll wrap up. Lots of bets this week on various tours, always choose the spots you feel comfortable with when following plays. If anyone has questions on any event or the legal/financial stuff I wrote about above, leave me a comment or reply to the email, I usually get back to everyone.

As always, best of luck with all your bets.

Matt / Ziggy