Luke List made a monster putt on the first hole of a five-man playoff Sunday to win the Sanderson Farms. When the playoff hole started, it felt like we could be seeing this thing end Monday morning since it was getting dark. I didn’t care when it ended, so long as Ludvig Aberg was the winner - alas, List got it done. The course does look like a place List can thrive in retrospect, but he has been so bad for so long, I won’t hold it against myself for not looking his way.
Aberg left some shots out there over the course of the event, it happens. We were lucky to have him make the playoff in the first place, I feel somewhat validated for backing him despite the Ryder Cup hangover. Overall though, not a great event on the betting front:
Ludvig lost in the playoff
1-2 finishing position bets
1-3 matchup bets
Shriners Children’s Open Preview
Course: TPC Summerlin
Purse: $8.4 million
The Shriners has been a regular tour stop since 1983 and always brings a stronger field than most of the events in the Fall Swing. $8 million is not a large purse, but this event was once known for being a big payday - it was the first non-major event to have a purse over $1 million, back in 1984.
The Shriners has always taken place in Vegas, changing courses multiple times before settling on TPC Summerlin. We’ll preview the course in detail after this - the short summary is that it’s very easy. Between the decent field and the beautiful landscape, this is at least a pretty fun event even if not that prestigious.
The list of recent winners show some more familiar names than our last few events:
2022: Tom Kim (-24)
2021: Sungjae Im (-24)
2020: Martin Laird (-23)
2019: Kevin Na (-23)
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21)
Clearly you need to be able to go low to win here. You also see a bunch of guys known for their accuracy and above average putting. Bryson’s win came before his body change, when he was more accurate with less distance, so really all of these guys could be considered fairway finders.
Notably in the field this year is LPGA star Lexi Thompson. She’s one of the more well-known LPGA players in the game, but she’s been pretty up and down this year. I pay some attention to LPGA, would say she’s been outside the top 20 on the year. It’s not the first time a woman has played a PGA event, it’s actually the 7th time. However, of those seven, only Babe Didrikson Zaharias made the cut, back in 1945. I’ll root for Lexi to do well, but from a betting perspective, if you see -200 (1.50) or better for her to miss the cut, that’s a very confident bet to place.
When researching this course over the years, I’ve come across a few trends I found interesting. We can’t let trends direct who we play, but I like to use them to narrow my selections from a longlist to a shortlist at times.
Of the last 14 guys to win this event:
11 were 32 or younger
11 had played at least 1 Fall event
11 finished top 40 in their most recent event
10 had played in at least 2 Shriners Opens in the past
10 had finished 15th or better at a Shriners Open in the past
All 14 had a prior win on tour
These are all pretty strong and should hopefully prove helpful after we see what the data has to say.
Course Preview: TPC Summerlin
As far as birdie-fest courses go, this one is at least really pretty. TPC Summerlin is a private course within the ‘Summerlin Community’, but a pro can no doubt play there whenever they want. For you and I, we’ll need a member invite or silent auction.
Summerlin measures out as a 7250 yard par 71, but plays much shorter due to the elevation. The average driving distance is 15 yards longer per guy, so the value of distance is much lower than the past month’s events. If we did see the random windy day, the emphasis on accuracy would only be amplified, so I know we’ll be looking for a different profile off the tee this week.
The rough is short, but the greens are large (7400 square feet compared to the average of 6000 square feet). So GIR % is higher than usual from fairway and rough, but much closer to the pin from fairway, as you’d expect. Approach will be a data staple as always, but there isn’t really a key proximity range this week. Considering we know the winner will be going low, I’ll use the stat “Birdie or Better” (BoB) to compliment SG:APP in models.
With barely any danger off the tee, short rough and large greens, there is no reason to factor in SG:ARG at all this week for me. Of course greens will be missed, but not many. I’ll instead use “3 putt avoidance” as a small consideration. I think lag putting is more applicable than around the green play here.
The large greens will feature Bent grass. Bent usually rewards the better putters, reflected by the majority of past winners being above average on the green. We’ll value putting a bit more than usual here, both recent form and longer term history on Bent greens.
According to DataGolf, TPC Summerlin has a medium-high correlation between past performance and future success. We’ll weight course history stats accordingly. I’ll also include recent history on comparable courses as always, just a bit lower than Summerlin history. For comps, I want other easy courses, especially if they fit the TPC blueprint. The final group I’ll use includes Silverado, CC of Jackson, TPC Craig Ranch, TPC Southwind, and TPC San Antonio (the other easiest TPC’s).
Since the desert air presents a kind of unique feel to the course, I am also going to factor in recent history in other desert condition events. These courses are not as easy as Summerlin, but I still see value in finding if anyone might favor conditions like this. My list will include TPC Scottsdale, La Quinta, PGA West Stadium Course, Sherwood CC, and Shadow Creek.
As always, let’s summarize what we know about the course and event history to think about who we want to target this week.
We want to back someone accurate off the tee and on approach with no concern for distance. That alone is a pretty broad profile, so we’re going to factor Bent putting in more heavily than usual this week. I can’t overlook the fact that the past 14 winners here all had a prior win on Tour, so I’ll consider that if deciding between options.
Early Leans
Tom Kim is going to be really shortly priced Monday morning, fairly so. I’m not going to bet him like I did Aberg last week as shortest - I will bet Top 10 though as long as it’s even odds or better. Kim’s been in great form the last couple months and so obviously fits the profile of who will do well here. He’s played it once and won, so he’s more than deserving of being the odds-on favorite.
I’m open minded to what the data ends up saying and how it compares to odds listed. There are a handful of guys I’m leaning towards before seeing either of those though. Cam Davis fits the profile perfectly, but has mediocre results here - kind of a red flag. SH Kim has been playing his best golf so far during the Fall Swing, just has not won any Tour event before. Same for Adam Schenk, who finished last season better than he could have ever dreamed and has a good history at Summerlin. These three guys are all already on my shortlist - we’ll see what odds end up allowing me to play.
How to Watch
We have a lot of streaming opportunities now, but I still want to know the TV schedule (all times EST).
Thursday: 5-8, Golf Channel
Friday: 5-8, Golf Channel
Saturday: 5-8, Golf Channel
Sunday: 5-8, Golf Channel
Closing Thoughts
It’s another week of PGA golf opposite the juggernauts that are NFL and college football. For The Shriner’s though, we at least get evening golf. It’s a better field than most of the fall on a prettier course - the fact that prime coverage happens in between afternoon football and night football is helpful from a view-ability standpoint. Turning away from the afternoon NFL slate to see Ben Griffin implode and Luke List steal the win was hard for even me. If we have a contender in the mix, that always helps change the channel.
We’ll be back on Wednesday with the usual post of data and bets I like this week. Until then, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy