Previewing the Rocket Mortgage
The rare Midwest event
Keegan Bradley ran away with this thing on Sunday. It’s his 2nd win in the past twelve months, both of them coming off the back of his improved putting. He’s insanely slow with the Aimpoint method, but it’s working for him.
Going into Sunday, it was Keegan and Chez Reavie who had a shot, the same final pairing as 2019 when Reavie won. None of our outright bets were in contention, though we did well overall:
Hideki Matsuyama, 14th place, was closest outright
5-3 finishing position bets, including Scheffler T10 and Lowry T40 best bets
5-3 matchup bets, including 2u play on Eckroat over Hossler
Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview
Course: Detroit Golf Club
Purse: $8.8 million
This is a relatively new event on the schedule, debuting in 2019. It’s the first and only PGA event to be held in Detroit. The field is surprisingly strong this week considering the purse is less than half of what we’ve had the last two weeks on Tour. Max Homa is the highest ranked player in the field, though in the midst of a cold streak. He’s joined by Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, and Collin Morikawa as top 20 ranked players in the world.
It’s safe to say this is the strongest field Detroit Golf Club has ever had. Course history won’t be of that much value this week either - I’ll include it in models, just for lower weight than usual. When we look at past winners, it’s clear that multiple types of player can win here:
2022: Tony Finau
2021: Cam Davis
2020: Bryson DeChambeau
2019: Nate Lashley
Tony and Bryson were both sub-20/1 odds, Bryson sub-10/1. Davis and Lashley were each longer than 100/1. I don’t think we can take too much from this in terms of picking the winner, it does make me think we should be cautious around how much we risk for this event. I’ll say more in the course preview, but this course is pretty easy for the pros.
Detroit Golf Club Preview
Obviously located in Detroit, this club dates back to 1899. It was founded by a guy named William Farrand, who became wealthy making organs and pianos. The course was originally just six holes until three more were added in 1900. Two years later a back nine was added and popularity of the club boomed. It became private and remains so today.
In 1913, the club spent $100,000, a huge sum for the time, on Donald Ross completely reshaping the course and adding another. We’ve talked about Donald Ross before in these posts, he was the most prolific designer of his time, possibly in American history. Oak Hill, host of the PGA Championship, is a recent notable Ross design. Anyway, Don completed the work and the club now has a North and South course. For the Rocket Mortgage, we’ll see mostly the North Course with a few holes from the South.
The course will measure out as a 7,370 yard par 72. That’s about the average size on the year. However, driving distance and accuracy both rate out as noticeably easier than the average Tour stop. Many holes are tree-lined, but every fairway is pretty wide. I’m likely going to lower the weights around any OTT stats in models with this in mind. Distance clearly helps anytime Bryson was a past winner and Finau has plenty in the bag as well, so I will give some consideration there.
When driving gets easier, approach play ends up mattering more in separating the leaderboard. A birdie-fest like this can be described as a second-shot course, so I’ll give plenty of weight to recent and full-year approach stats. Proximity ranges don’t show any one area as the majority, but every range under 150 yards is higher than usual. I’ll include short proximity ranges in the model since this will likely be a ton of driver-wedge holes.
Around the green play shouldn’t be too necessary this week. Scrambling percentages show an easier test than the average stop and GIR rates are much higher. If the guys you bet on are needing the rely on their ARG prowess, they likely have no chance.
The short game area that will matter is putting. Donald Ross is most known for his green design, so it makes sense that putting is what determines the winner most often on his courses. I’m going to include more putting stats in models than usual this week, especially giving weight to recent putting. Ross did a ton of courses, so many of his greens naturally have some similarities. I’ll look for putting history on Ross courses as a possible way to find a guy trending towards a spike week. The surface is a mix of Bent and Poa like recent weeks. I’m not as sure to say this Bent as I was in the Northeast, so we’ll stick with total putting stats.
As always, let’s summarize what we know about the course and event history to think about who we want to target this week.
It might be a week where it’s wise to include some longer odds plays. We want guys with above average distance and good short proximity play. Putting is going to get a lot of focus and I especially will care about putting from 5-10 feet. Knowing putting is the least predictive area from a modeling point of view, it’s going to best for us to limit exposure.
Early Leans
I’m going to be pretty open minded to bet longer-odds guys this week if the data shows there’s value on any of them. Taylor Moore is likely going to look good in models if I had to predict someone longer that will pop in a lot of people’s models. Beware though, he’s been missing cuts as of late. I’d need longer than 100/1 to add him.
If I do add one of the favorites, it’s hard not to like Rickie Fowler. His approach has stayed hot and he showed no letdown from The US Open close call. I’m not sure what price would be fair to pay on Rickie this week, but I know I’ll struggle to get there if he is shorter than 20/1.
Justin Thomas had shown almost no signs of life, then came the 81 at LACC, a low point in his career. He then rebounded admirably at The Travelers and I’ll be curious what kind of pricing we see on him in Detroit. If you see anything near 30/1 listed today, fire away. He’s still a good approach player and the easier driving test will help him. I’m afraid he’ll be closer to Fowler odds-wise, and I’d much rather bet Rickie between them.
How to Watch
We have a lot of streaming opportunities now, but I still want to know the TV schedule (all times EST).
Thursday: 3:00-6:00, Golf
Friday: 3:00-6:00, Golf
Saturday: 1:00-3:00, Golf; 3:00-6:00, CBS
Sunday: 1:00-3:00, Golf; 3:00-6:00, CBS
Closing Thoughts
This week is a downgrade in both field strength and betting opportunities. It’s a stronger field than usual for Detroit, just nothing compared to the previous two. When the test gets easier, it’s a good policy to limit our exposure.
For outrights, I think the question this week has to be whether or not to bet Rickie Fowler. He’s been knocking on the door week after week now and is one of the steadier finishers of 2023. It just won’t feel great betting him at 12/1. If I end up liking a good amount of other options, we might have to pass on Rickie.
That will do it, be back on Wednesday with the usual post of data and bets I like this week. Until then, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy