PLAYERS Preview
Let's Have a Week
Hey golf fans!
We’re back. While I didn’t have a preview last week, I did really enjoy another competitive finish on the PGA side. Daniel Berger almost went wire-to-wire, but Akshay narrowly stole the biggest win of his career. Personally, I am a huge Akshay fan - have been on him in both of his prior wins. Had I done the usual preview and bets last week, good chance I would have been on him - such is life, we can’t get too excited about wins or too down on losses or missed opportunities.
Now we’re heading to the biggest non-major on the schedule, The PLAYERS. It’s always a fun event, but will caution that volatility is often higher on this course, so it can be wise to hold back a bit on total exposure in the betting market. Then again we only live once, so you do you, responsibly of course. Let’s get started.
Stats to Value
The “fifth major” is the biggest payday of the season and is sure to bring out all the top ranked guys each year. The event goes back to 1974 and has always had the same name without major sponsor added to it. It was kind of a big deal right from the start, designed to be a marquee event with a big purse, it’s always remained as such.
The PGA promotes the hell out of this thing, I feel like I’ve been watching commercials for it since last summer. It’s beyond clear this is the top priority event the PGA Tour runs and the production value on TV shows it.
The PLAYERS was originally played in March, then moved to May in 2007. In 2019, the schedule shook up a bit and the event went back to March. When we pull course history, I’m inclined to only include stats from 2019 onward. The course plays different earlier in the year. Winds are much more of a problem this time of year too.
TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye design, probably the most used example when you hear about his work. Dye is likely the most famous golf designer in America. He’s the rare designer who has a lot of courses we can find on resorts as well as a ton of courses played by the PGA Tour. We’ll see more Pete Dye designs on the schedule than any other architect. They’re typically more of a ‘thinking man’s course’ - you don’t overpower them, you have to play positionally as it was designed.
TPC Sawgrass measures out at just over 7200 yards - on the shorter side. Distance is typically devalued on Pete Dye courses and this is no exception. Guys will pull less than driver on a majority of the Par 4’s. Removing the advantage of being a longer hitter is a consistent trend across all of Dye’s designs. With that, I won’t have many OTT stats weighted in our fit models this week. I’ll give a slight nod to guys who consistently gain OTT for some level of consistency to be included.
With many tee shots being purely positional to set up your next attack, it should come as no surprise that approach play is the name of the game this week. TPC Sawgrass needs to be played strategically, so whether you are in the fairway or not, it’s more about what side you are on for approach shots. Even with the modest total length of course, proximity ranges come in right around average for the season.
The greens at Sawgrass are around 5,500 square feet, smaller than the average of 6,000. They also run fast, so near misses on approach can easily run off the green into bunkers or worse. Annually, this course sees a top 5 highest amount of penalty strokes per event - makes sense with water on 17 holes. With these things in mind, I’m going to be weighting safety pretty high. This course really is kind of a masterpiece - every single hole has at least an 8% birdie and 8% bogey rate, a crazy equitable number.
17th Hole - Par 3
This is likely the most famous hole in golf - it will get the coverage to match. I expect every person reading this has seen the hole before, you may have played it in any golf video game ever created. Looking at the hole, you really have three options: 1) hit the green, 2) hit that bunker, or 3) find the drink. The lack of a perimeter of rough makes this green volatile to hit; guys can hit the surface with too much spin en route to the ball ending in the water. Add in even a little wind and this hole becomes even tougher.
For distance, this is the shortest hole on the course, playing 137 yards for the pros. If we played, we would encounter 128 yards from the blue tees, 115 from the white. It is estimated that 100,000 balls are hit by amateurs into the water each year.
Something I found very interesting: Pete Dye did not originally intend this to be an island green hole. When designing a course, sand availability is at a premium to shape the land…of the entire plot, the area where 17 is today had the most accessible sand. That sand was moved to various holes to complete the shaping, and the remaining land around 17 slowly got less and less substantial. The original plan was to have just a lake on the side of the green, but as more earth was moved, that plan was presenting logistical issues.
Pete Dye’s design partner, his wife Alice Dye, suggested the concept of an island green. Both of them were skeptical of it, but moved forward. Fast forward to today - this hole has 11 different camera angles devoted to it at all times and is the most famous on the course, a good example that sometimes the best things in life can come when you least expect them.
Model Result
Link to the model is here, results below:
Form Fit
There are more reasons to like Morikawa this week than any golfer in any event so far this season. He’s playing the best golf of the past few years and has added distance off the tee as well. I don’t think he really needs that distance at Sawgrass, but when we see gains like that it shows that this is a guy who is grinding to improve.
The history at Sawgrass is good, a 10th and 13th in the past 3 years. It’s the type of course where Collin is the best fit - anytime irons get more emphasis than usual, he’s going to make sense. The rub for me is how popular he is in the markets this week. Despite the short number, he’s among the top on ‘most bet charts’. I bring this up most weeks in some way, but an overarching thought for me is to avoid the chalkiest players each week. Data plays out showing they are not usually contending. At time of writing, the most bet guys are Morikawa and Min Woo Lee…makes sense, tons to like on each of them. For me though, I will reluctantly pass on outrights for both - excellent pool pick on either guy for what that’s worth.
Course Fit
Scottie Scheffler tops each metric within this one, rarely seen! He’s won here twice in the past 3 years, has other wins in Florida, other win on Dye courses, and plays every course well really. This is the chart his dominance really shines the most on.
However, there is no world where he makes sense as a bet this week. We’re seeing his worst iron play in over 2 years and a leaky driver. The putter is actually looking good, but that’s not enough to come close to warranting his price. He’s roughly 4/1 to win, but then all the way back at 10/1 to miss the cut. If you really want action on Scottie, I think there is value on that MC number. I don’t have the fortitude to make that one of my bets, just interesting to see that prospect tempt me. A year ago at this time I would not have considered it at 30/1 even.
Skill Fit
Some of the usual names in this one. I mentioned Scottie above, makes sense to go to Rory next. The defending PLAYERS champion withdrew last week at Bay Hill with back spasms. Rory is in elite shape, but anytime a golfer’s injury mentions back or wrist, we need to take note. I wasn’t going to bet Rory anyway, but it’s an even easier call now.
Most books are not listing Rory to MC as an option…cowards. If you do happen to have an out with both Scottie and Rory MC odds listed, both should be north of 7/1, I think that could create a nice Friday sweat for you. For the two shortest prices golfers in literally every field, it’s a weird timing to have both coming in with more doubt than usual.
Total Fit
Rory - easy skip with health concerns
Morikawa - the obvious answer this week
Scottie - form is bad, vibes even worse
Si Woo - cooled, but still having an amazing season APP, past winner here
Ludvig - great last week, lives around Sawgrass and practices here
Xander - a win is coming, but not yet
Henley - a cheaper Morikawa alternate
Fitzpatrick - riding good finishes, but shaky striking last week
Akshay - easy fade after his biggest career win
Fleetwood - quietly playing good golf, excellent history in Florida
My Plays
Outrights
Viktor Hovland - This is totally a play based on the price (40/1) compared to ceiling potential. Vik’s been inconsistent the past 18 months, but still routinely spikes with his irons. I’d use caution on playing him in finishing position markets because there is the chance his driver kills any chance. However, in what could be a wide open event due to weather, I think spreading out exposure across more guys with win equity is the play.
Matt Fitzpatrick - Up until last week he had been striking the hell out of the ball. His putter had been the problem, very unlike Fitz. Then at Bay Hill things flipped, he gained huge on the greens and lost everywhere else. It’s another numbers play really. Across the season he’s been one the better performers tee-2-green and is a proven winner, think anything close to 40/1 is a good value.
Chris Gotterup - This was my first choice of the week. Gotterup’s won 3 times in his past 12 events played, kind of a crazy run. So many years The Players is won by guys already having an awesome season…Gotterup certainly qualifies there. If things do get wet, I like having one of the elite drivers in the field. He’s 50/1 on many books and has as many PGA Tour wins as Aberg and Cam Young combined, both in the 25/1 range. The price is a mistake and should be the best value of the week.
Sepp Straka - He’s one of the more heavily bet guys, but I couldn’t resist. Sepp continues to stripe his irons and miss short putts. Across 2026, I’d argue it’s between him and Si Woo Kim for guys who have knocked on the door the hardest without actually getting the win. Sepp’s also someone who’s won plenty, once in Florida, and has seen success even in loaded fields. Makes sense he’s so popular this week at 50/1 as well.
Jordan Spieth - This one is a stretch at first glance, but Spieth is playing well this season. I don’t know if he has it in him to get back to winning big events, but we obviously know he used to. He’s at least someone we could picture holding The Players trophy, something hard to find this far down the oddsboard (75/1).
I’m not writing blurbs for my other plays this week, but will note that you should find ways to fade Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im. Both are returning from injury, just came back at Bay Hill, and both looked predictably awful. They have good ARG skills between them, but if their striking is as bad as last week, these are trunk slammers going home on Friday night.
Closing Thoughts
We’re getting outstanding coverage this week - streaming on ESPN, but also a ton of it will be on old fashioned TV too. The course is supposed to be as tricked out as it’s ever been - long rough, super firm greens. The PGA is really leaning into the “fifth major” thinking….that means is soapbox time here at Ziggy Golf!
I am pumped for a challenging Sawgrass, hopefully we get some wind too - it’s a really fun course to watch all around. However, where I draw the line is even humoring this event as a “major”. There are four majors, done, end of discussion. Those events did not all start out as “majors”, it’s not like someone paid a special fee when they started playing it for the label to get added. Rather, they happened organically based on countless factors over decades. The PGA has pumped money into The PLAYERS for as long as I’ve been alive and is acting like that means it should get the respect of the actual majors.
Give me a break with that. Look in the mirror PGA, how is this different from LIV’s strategy? Pump money into something, then spend more money on the marketing (propaganda), then finally make sure your paid talking heads are all preaching from the same book - all with the hope of the general public starting to believe in your message and that belief conveniently making you potentially more profits. If there’s a hope for today’s society to be found in sports, it’s that more money does not directly correlate with importance or relevance to fans.
Sawgrass is an amazing course, the event always already has a loaded field. Why can’t that be enough? Instead we’re going to hear tons of talk like “Is this really the fifth major? Let’s go to another retired golfer to argue our point for us.”
The answer is it’s not a fifth major, it’s simply an important PGA event held on a cool course. That’s enough for all of us reading (or writing) these pages, let’s instead focus on the golfers playing this year and the memories of past years.
Alright, that will do it! Hope everyone has a chance to watch some of this during the work week Thursday and Friday, then should be appointment viewing by Sunday. As always, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy
Lets go!!!!