PGA Championship Preview
Course: Valhalla
Purse: $17.5 million
We made it, the second major of the year is here. I have some details on Valhalla in our next section, will say now that this is going to be the typical major test we know and love.
The PGA Championship began in 1916, organized by Rodman Wanamaker, namesake of the trophy awarded to winners today. It was actually a match play event until 1958, which is pretty crazy to me. Match play is so rarely seen now, cool to think a major champion was once decided in that format.
It’s a major, but is likely the least prestigious of the four. Anyone and everyone still wants to win one of course. The event used to take place in August, but was moved to May in the schedule changes of 2019. It’s a good thing for golf, avoid the juggernaut that is NFL coverage as much as you can. Like the other non-Masters majors, the event changes host annually.
I’m putting the list of recent winners below, but they are all from different courses. We won’t have use for course history this week, instead we’ll look at how guys have done on other major venues to find who stands up well to the increased challenge.
2023: Brooks Koepka
2022: Justin Thomas
2021: Phil Mickelson
2020: Collin Morikawa
2019: Brooks Koepka
2018: Brooks Koepka
Phil’s win in 2021 is one of the biggest outliers in all of golf. Regardless of what’s transpired since then or where he plays today, that was one to remember. The other notable from above is that Koepka has won HALF of these the past 6 years.
An obvious trend for us to consider is that longshots very rarely win majors. The pressure is greater than ever and the course never lets up for an easy hole. I did find some other trends that might help guide us, all related to the finish in the most recent event before The PGA.
16/17 finished top 30 in most recent start
16/17 were also top 30 in SG: T2G in most recent event
8/17 finished Top 5 in most recent start
I won’t rigidly follow these trends, but I do expect I only bet guys in great form. With LIV guys in the field, I will check anyone’s finishes from that league even though they lack statistics. Koepka won the last LIV event, so he’s got to be included on any short list.
Valhalla Preview
Valhalla is a private club located in Louisville, Kentucky. Compared to many major venues, where courses could have been created over 100 years ago, this one is relatively young. Jack Nicklaus was contracted to design a course here in the early 80’s, construction finished in 1985 and the course opened in 1986.
After only ten years in existence, Valhalla was awarded the 1996 PGA Championship, won by Mark Brooks. Everything went well with that event, so we started seeing more important events land in Kentucky. The 2000 PGA Championship (Tiger Woods) and the 2014 PGA (Rory) were both won by the elite of the game at the time, furthering how good of test Valhalla is. When you see off-names winning, it usually means the course was not as difficult as most major venues. Also of note, the 2008 Ryder Cup was played here.
We know that on just about any Nicklaus-designed course, there is going to be a massive preference to long hitters. Jack was the longest hitter of his time and so he’s always built courses where the longer players have a clear leg-up. Add to this the fact that any major hosted in the USA is going to be on a long course and we have an obvious first stat to use in distance. I don’t see myself backing anyone in the bottom half of the field in distance off the tee.
In past events at Valhalla, fairways used Bent grass - this has now been changed to a tighter-cut Zoysia. This means there will be more roll-out than past majors hosted here, furthering how difficult hitting fairways will be. I’d rather our guy be playing from the short grass than the long Kentucky rough, but I just think everyone will be missing a ton of fairways. All of this only furthers how much of an advantage hitting far will be; you’d rather have 150 from thick rough than 200 from the same type of lie.
There is no ShotLink data from past majors here, so we need to make some informed guesses on approach ranges. Looking at the course length (just over 7600 yards) makes this an easy call - like most majors, approach ranges will be longer than 175 yards for the most part. I’ll be looking at approach stats in a variety of ways for the model, but certainly will be rewarding long iron play.
The note about changing fairway grass will impact the driving accuracy, but the main goal was to make the run-off areas around greens more penal. I expect this to play similar to Southern Hills in the 2022 PGA Championship - longer chips needed when greens are missed, usually from tight lies. This type of short game can be harder for some players, it often separates the field around ARG play. Some guys, like Hovland, have been oddly better on tight lie ARG. I’ll be looking at ARG play in majors as a unique stat this week.
When players make it to the green, they’ll be seeing familiar Bent grass there. I’ll look at Bent putting stats, but I am somewhat more interested in any fast putting success. The greens are larger than average and fairly undulating - again, think of Nicklaus success at Augusta and it makes sense why he would so often steer towards more undulation. A couple of the greens are a bit gimmicky for traditional tastes, but that’s if we’re being nit-picky.
As always, let’s summarize what we know about the course and event history to think about who we want to target this week.
We first need to focus on long hitters. For this major, it’s a large field, so if we see someone is not in the top half of distance, we can cross them off. I’ll then reward approach play in difficult events and on long courses, but am more open-minded on this stat than usual. ARG and Fast Putting will matter as well, though I am more concerned about past major performance. Lastly, I’d like to see a good result in their most recent start.
Early Leans
I think we need to start with acknowledging there is no way to bet Scheffler here with his odds. Of course he does have the best chance to win, guy is playing insanely well. I just don’t think anyone should get in the business of betting someone at 4/1 to win a major golf tournament.
After Scottie, the venue fits Rory McIlroy - obviously, he won the last major played here. He just won this past week, so prices are not going to do us any favors. Of the short odds side of the board, I am most intrigued by Brooks. Koepka is the defending champion, which I usually avoid, but he won back-to-back PGA’s in the past and clearly thrives in the major set-up overall.
Looking at more fairly priced players, I am starting to think Bryson could overpower this course. I’m not a fan of him, know most of you likely feel the same, but his form has been improving and he played a great Masters. Cam Young will get a lot of attention, rightfully so, but I’d rather have Bryson on the card as of now.
Some of the other names I will want to track for odds and ‘chalk factor’ are Justin Thomas (from Kentucky), Joaquin Niemann (great form all year), Min Woo Lee (bombing drives and short game), and Will Zalatoris (great major player at long odds).
How to Watch
We have a lot of streaming opportunities now, but I still want to know the TV schedule (all times EST).
Thursday: 1:00-7:00pm, ESPN
Friday: 1:00-7:00pm, ESPN
Saturday: 10:00-1:00pm, ESPN; 1:00-7:00, CBS
Sunday: 10:00-1:00pm, ESPN; 1:00-7:00, CBS
Closing Thoughts
I get excited for most events on the season - it’s pro golf on TV that we can gamble on, tremendous. Then a major rolls around and it goes to another level. These are the weeks that made most of us golf fans to begin with. The most famous golfers in the world are the most famous from winning events like this.
I agree with most people, The PGA Championship has the lowest prestige of the four - it’s still one the four. With the LIV segment, it’s also one of the only times we see the entirety of the best in the world at the same event. It’s possible we don’t see Valhalla again in the rotation for awhile, so I am sure the organizers are hoping for a close event to help make the case of coming back to Louisville in the future.
Last year Oak Hill hosted the PGA - between the two courses, it’s not even remotely close which one is better, it’s Oak Hill. I don’t hate Valhalla, but I was surprised how easy it was to find critical comments. Nicklaus added too much gimmick; I noted this on green shaping, but there is also a ‘floating fairway’ on the par 5 7th. The design is visually impressive, but the floating fairway offers no functional advantage and thus is never used. It’s fine, but when you think of the resources put into something like that on a hole, it speaks to some mismanagement. There is a lot of this to be found, visually pleasing agronomy that does not impact strategy. You’d just like to see a bit more in a major venue host in my opinion.
I cannot imagine a better situation for the true elites in the field. All of Scheffler, Rory, and Koepka won the last time they played - so we have the three best golfers in the field all meeting the trend of great immediate form coming in. I know I can’t bet Scheffler, but it’s possible splitting exposure between the other two is the most straight-forward yet effective way to proceed this week.
We’ll be back later this week with our models and favorite bets of the week. It’s a good week to have full exposure ready to fire in my opinion. Until then, best of luck and all your bets and enjoy the NHL/NBA playoffs.
Matt / Ziggy