Pebble Preview
The greatest meeting of land and sea
Hey golf fans!
Such a good tournament last weekend! Next year they should put the Super Bowl on first and save something competitive for the evening.
Si Woo finished 1st in the field in ball striking, yet again just did not roll enough putts for us. I was watching Sunday with hopes he could make a push, then with regret as Hideki saved one mishap after another (guy I almost bet last week). In the end, Hideki finally was undone by errant drives and Chris Gotterup won in a playoff. I’ll be tempted to go back to Si Woo and Hideki this week, but want to see the data and how the market moves.
On the Euro Tour we had Daniel Hillier in the mix, but ultimately it was Patrick Reed who again got it done. He’s started his Euro Tour season by going 1st-2nd-1st, arguably the hottest golfer in the world right now. If he stopped playing events today, he still would likely finish in the top 10 on the Euro Tour and earn a PGA card for next season - even if he doesn’t, he’ll be in most events next year. (Note: Euro Tour is off this upcoming week)
LIV had a cool course setting, played totally under stadium lights. Still, absolutely zero juice to these events. I’m only noting it because of the lights and that we don’t have many other tours in action this week - LIV will play in Australia though, a good chance for night viewing for Americans.
Now we’ll turn to Pebble Beach for a signature event with loaded field and no cut. Sometimes tougher to find bets in no cut events, but we should be able to cobble some together. Let’s get started…
Stats to Value
“It’s the greatest meeting of land and sea in the world.” - Johnny Miller
Pebble Beach is a course we all recognize at this point. The PGA plays there every year, they host periodic US Opens, and it’s appeared on every golf video game ever made. (Don’t fact check that, it’s bound to be true)
Pebble Beach first opened in 1919, so she’s now over 100 years old. The course today has been remodeled so many times that I’m sure only the natural characteristics resemble the initial design. It’s playable by anyone reading this, but it won’t be cheap. Prices reflect it’s ranking in lists of the best courses in the world, and getting a tee time is going to take some planning ahead. However, it’s firmly atop many recreational golfer’s bucket lists.
The course is very small by PGA standards - both short in length and in terms of the greens. They are the smallest greens the pros will play on this year, so we’ll need some ARG skills even though we’re not going to see any long irons into greens this week.
Coming in at under 7000 yards, Pebble is one of the shortest courses on the schedule. Doglegs and other forced lay-ups are heavily featured, so distance is almost completely neutralized. Normally I would say this favors fairway finders, but with the rough kept short, it’s a case of off-the-tee game just being de-valued. No one is winning this due to their OTT game. Rory was amazing driving last year, but it was his wedges and putting that got the win.
A lot of holes funnel into 100-150 yard approach shots, so I’ll definitely be including stats from this proximity range in models. Approach skills become an obvious asset when we look at the size of the greens.
A usual PGA stop has around 6,200 square feet of green, but Pebble Beach features a measly 3,500 square feet, a massive difference. In an event where the winning score will push -20, you need to give yourself enough birdie looks to contend - earning birdie putts will be key. This means approach is going to rule the day in models as it so often does.
Once putting, we again see pure Poa greens. It’s Poa very similar to Torrey Pines two weeks ago, where we usually see past success quite predictive of future outlook. They will not be as fast as Torrey, but you can expect me to include Poa putting stats in models this week.
Adding this all up, the player we want to target is someone with excellent approach stats, specifically from 100-125 yards out. We don’t care how far they can hit, but do care how they’ve been on Poa greens the past couple years. I want them to be comfortable in ‘around the green’ situations, but do not need them to be elite. These players should have a few years of Pebble experience with at least one prior top 15 in this event.
Lastly, I have a few winners trends:
12/12 had at least 120 career starts
12/12 had played Pebble at least twice
11/12 had a finish of 18th or better at Pebble in the past
My Favorite Golf Picture
I wanted to take this chance to include my favorite picture ever taken of a golf shot. In 2022, Jordan Spieth’s drive on the iconic 8th hole came VERY close to the canyon that separates the two sections of the hole. He hit the shot, cleared the canyon, but immediately afterwards said it was a mistake to try it. Seeing the picture, I agree with that assessment:
The stones on that guy.
Model Result
Link to the model is here, results below:
Form Fit
Justin Rose has a victory at Pebble Beach and is coming off a somewhat unexpected win at Torrey Pines. He has not played much else, so that’s why his form scores are so high. I think he warrants consideration in just about any market, but I don’t see 45 year old Justin Rose winning back-to-back events. I’d definitely use in DFS, maybe could pursue a finishing position bet, I have a matchup I like later on, but I have zero interest in an outright bet on him.
Course Fit
I’m going to mention both Rory and Scottie in this one - hands down the two best golfers alive right now. If Rory has his best stuff, he can hang with Scottie due to his driver being such a unique weapon. Last year when Rory won, he was cutting off angles no one else could dream of. I’m skeptical of that repeating, but the price on Rory is actually somewhat fair if you wanted a single bullet.
Scottie’s price is not fair, but the course should suit him so well. He plays everything well, but if winds were to pick up, his edge is only going to grow. With the putter being much improved, he really has almost zero weakness right now. Still, I am saying skip the ‘without Scottie’ market. Pebble is easy enough to score that guys seem like they can get closer to Scottie’s level - Scottie’s edge gets biggest when the course is playing as tough as possible.
Both obviously good players who can certainly win, but I would be less worried about them than some of the tougher course weeks ahead.
Skill Fit
Short course with approach and short proximity highlighted means Russell Henley is going to score well. This is the type of place he’s been eating up the past couple years, so he should be considered for any market. Surprisingly, his history at Pebble is more bad than good - couple of MC’s, a 15th in 2018, then a 5th place finish last year.
Russ has been improving greatly the past couple years, so maybe the history is more reflective of the overall player he was back then and where he is now. He’s definitely on my short list of guys who could win, but I ultimately did not bet him, just too short of price. I think he holds some value in a one-and-done selection though.
Total Fit
Scottie - obviously a fit anywhere, will probably win Pebble at some point
Henley - amazing course fit from a skills point of view
Mav - grew up playing this course, loves small greens
Si Woo - hottest irons on the planet at time of writing
Hideki - can we trust him after last week’s meltdown?
Rose - history and form are there, but can he win back-to-back?
Tommy - was not playing well in Middle East, easy skip despite course being a fit
Cantlay - should be winning, but has not been close for a long time
Gerard - new face with amazing ball striking, someone to keep an eye on
Berger - awesome history and great APP recently, should consider
My Plays
I started the week thinking I can’t wait to back Hideki after that missed opportunity last week. Then the more I looked at other options, the cooler on got on the prospect of backing him. More than being worried about that collapse, his history at Pebble has just not been that good. He’s an approach god, but actually separates from the field more with mid-to-long irons and has never really done that well attacking with wedges. His ARG is elite, but I just don’t think we’ll see enough birdie chances to get low enough. Then of course his driver could cause issues here or there, so I am out on Hideki. I think he likely finishes top 20 still, just a high floor with his irons and ARG.
Once I was in the meat of the oddsboard, I saw a bunch of options in the 25-35/1 range. After weighing options, I took only one from this pricing, more on him to follow. The guy I was waffling around before skipping was Viktor Hovland. He struck it well last week, been showing signs of form coming back around. More than this, he won the US Amateur at Pebble Beach years ago - every time we’re here, part of me thinks he’ll be able to close another win. What kept me away was mainly ARG woes and the fear of it being windier and colder than most years. If we need Vik to convert too many up-and-downs, we’re in trouble. Like the ceiling, scared by the prospect of too much scrambling.
Instead of taking a couple shorter priced guys, I think we should get as many names with win equity that we can from more around the middle of the board.
Outrights
So I had Hideki in mind like I said above, but I also absolutely was coming back to Si Woo Kim. If he had made like one stupid putt on Sunday, we’d be celebrating his victory - however, the ball striking remains on another level.
This was the one bet I was making no matter the price. Si Woo led the field yet again in total ball striking, finishing 5th OTT, 4th APP, and 4th ARG. Putting finished 78th, clearly the reason he wasn’t lifting a trophy Sunday. For him to win this week, he’ll need to make some putts of course.
The history at Pebble is mixed, but good recently. 12th in 2025 and 14th in 2024, before that 3 straight missed cuts. I’m not too concerned with the failures from years ago at Pebble, especially with the form he is carrying. Another encouraging mark on his history here is the putting - gaining shots in 3 of the last 6 trips here is certainly above his average for gaining with the short stick.
Assuming the weather reports are right with it being colder and windy, I like Si Woo’s lower ball flight (64th out of the 80 man field in apex height). He’s among the best ARG players on tour as well, so I have no doubt around his scrambling. This feels as simple as him needing to make some putts. My only fear is that this magical run needs to end sometime - I just think not yet, and I would certainly support a finishing position play on him as well. If we see another top 10 where he strikes it well, we just keep playing him in all markets.
The next guy I am backing is based around course history - Jason Day.
Day’s played this event 10 times - of these 10, his results look like the below:
Worst finish: 24th (2022)
Top 20: 9 out of 10
Top 10: 7 out of 10
Top 5: 5 out of 10
Really insane run of finishes here with no wins, cannot imagine a better course history. Of those trips, he gained shots putting in 9 of the 10 as well. I strongly encourage you to consider Day in finishing positions markets if not outright.
Recent form is decent, 2nd at AMEX and 38th at Farmers. More importantly, he gained over a shot per round in each event when it came to approach. That strong iron play coming in combined with his familiarity on the greens and history of good finishes at Pebble make this an easy call.
Odds on Day are all over the place, so this one more than the others you should shop around.
Now firmly in the middle of the board, my attention turned to Sepp Straka. Longer-term Ziggy Golf readers will remember we back him fairly often, someone I believe can get wins across the line and works with a high baseline APP. Those are pretty much the reasons I back him anytime I do, this week being no different.
He MC’d at AMEX, then finished 18th last week at WM. The MC could be discouraging, but he actually gained over 2 shots on approach during the one round with SG data. I skipped him last week despite the APP stats from the previous event, but after seeing the top 20 think it’s time to add him to the card.
Pebble history is good and getting better - in his 4 trips, his finishes in order have gone MC, 28th, 26th, 7th. Of the stats I used, the most encouraging to me was his “T2G on Short Courses”, where he finished 2nd in the stats only behind Scottie. This adds up, Sepp is an accurate player who does his best with shorter range approach play.
Our next guy we are backing for similar reasons to Sepp, but the variance is way higher. Akshay Bhatia is definitely a name you have heard in these pages, likely know him well by this point after the past couple seasons he’s had. I like Akshay when accuracy is important and I know he can play well on coastal courses from earlier in his career.
The biggest concern is around his form - last week he was outstanding, finished 3rd and gained over a shot per round APP and P. Greens are way different at Pebble, but if he can stay confident with his irons and putter, this is a place he can take aggressive targets.
History at Pebble is decent too: 30th and 22nd. What’s more, he gained shots putting on both trips, implying he’s comfortable on these slower Poa greens. Can he beat Scottie and Rory if he has his best stuff? That’s probably TBD still, but I can at least see the path for him to win or contend.
I’d likely stay away from finishing position bets or matchups with Akshay - before last week, he MC’d in both his previous starts in 2026, so it’s a bit riskier to chase too many plays with him.
The last guy we are taking is related again to course history, Daniel Berger. I mentioned Day above, with the insanely good history across 10 events. Berger only has 3 in his history here, but they are comparable:
2015: 10th
2020: 5th
2021: 1st
We have nothing more recent than 2021 here, mostly due to his injuries. However, he clearly loves this course, huge gains in every shot area during those trips.
History alone would not be enough - last week Berger finished 16th and led the field in Approach, gaining 7.23 shots over the event, ahead of Hideki’s 6.63 gained on approach. He was not on TV much, but if you saw any of Hideki’s iron play, Berger must have been red hot to be doing better.
The biggest difference between Berger of old and this current model is his ARG - what was once a strength is now a huge liability. That part does scare me, so would again use caution pursuing him in other markets. For outright winner though, the price makes a ton of sense as a value play.
Finishing Positions
I’m playing each of Si Woo, Hideki, and Jason Day as a Top 20 bet. If I had to pick only two, I would keep Si Woo and Day…if I played only one, it’s Day.
Each of these should be found in the -110 to +105 range. Be sure to shop around, but I also suggest playing these in the ‘ties paid in full’ markets - ties happen often at this stage of the leaderboard and the chop of dead heat is always a pain. You’d sacrifice a few points on the odds for this insurance, to me it’s always been worth it.
Matchups
I have 4 of the this week, bullets below:
Xander over Knapp - Knapp’s been great, but we’re really putting a matchup of him against Xander out there? It’s not like he has amazing history or anything, think this is an over-reaction to Xander starting slow, he is by far the better player overall.
Rose over Spaun - JJ withdrew from his last event, was so so before that. I believe he will come back down to earth in 2026. Rose is not going to win back-to-back, but I fully expect a good showing from him.
Fitzpatrick over Cam Young - Cam let us down last week and Fitz looked good. Now we go to a course where lower ball flight will help on many holes and ARG is important - both these point firmly to Fitz.
Burns over Harry Hall - This is a course where Hall could excel on, but we have not seen it through his past trips. We also are not seeing that impressive of form from him. You could say the same about Burns, but Sam is certainly a better baseline player than Harry…think like Xander, this is a bad matchup for books to have listed.
Cutline
This is a not cut event, so no bets to pursue here this week.
Degen Corner
We have LIV Adelaide this weekend, will start late night Wednesday for Americans reading this. When I was looking at plays, I found Draftkings had FAR better odds for literally everyone in the outright market - 100% should pursue that as the only book to place LIV bets this week.
I’m going to bullet the guys I am backing and their price:
Cam Smith (30/1) - likely a dumb bet since he is so washed, but played decent last week in LIV Riyadh. It’s a chase, but he is motivated to win in Australia and knows the course well, so maybe?
Abe Ancer (36/1) - great form and great history at Adelaide, was surprised to see the price this far down the board. If I played only one, it’s him.
Marc Leishman (39/1) - played really well all Fall in Australia, so my hope is that continues for one last event. He’s not a real threat most weeks, but playing the ‘home cooking’ narrative twice this week.
Jose Ballester (52/1) - I’ll play him a lot this year, think he is maybe the best young player on LIV even if not the biggest name. The price is outstanding for a guy who will be 20/1 by the summer LIV events.
Closing Thoughts
With football now firmly in the rear view, golf should be able to fully shine on the weekends. It’s perfect timing, we’re set for a really good run of courses. After Pebble Beach we’ll travel south to Riviera and then start the Florida Swing, where we are treated to PGA National, Bay Hill, and Sawgrass - each of the next five weeks are on courses I would put in the top half of the entire schedule.
We’ve been seeing one of our outright bets have a chance to win just about every week so far, but then fall short of actually pulling through. I’m encouraged by the finishes, but also growing frustrated at so many near misses - at the same time, I might have thrown up if I had a bet on Hideki when he hit that drive on the playoff hole into the water. Such is the nature of outright golf betting, the best sweat in sports in my opinion.
Even if we don’t have anyone in the mix come the weekend, or if you choose to not bet outrights, this is going to be great TV. We all know the course, likely better once you are seeing reminders of holes on your screens - with the loaded field and something this beautiful, it’s bound to be good.
That will do it! If anyone has questions on plays you are considering or anything else golf related, leave me a comment or reply to the email, I’ll get back to everyone. As always, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy