NBA Season Bets
I promise this is still a golf page
In my betting life, golf is by far the sport I have felt the most confident betting on. I’ve tried betting countless different sports, many of them end up being toss-ups at best. I would rarely ever broadcast betting advice outside of golf (unless we are talking strategies and not handicapping).
That being said, one other market I have consistently done well in is NBA Season Win Total bets. I love the NBA, always have, always will. However, betting regular season games in the NBA is the hardest market for most bettors to beat - the lines are sharp and the season is long. The best way to profit day-to-day on NBA is constantly check injury news, then race to the sportsbook to bet according to injuries or rest being announced - not a life anyone wants to live. When we expand the scope to the full 82 game season though, we can take a more ‘macro’ inventory of a team and not worry about the random back-to-backs or scheduling wins/losses.
The NBA season begins on October 19th, so we have just under 2 weeks to get any season-long bets in. I end up doing a bit of research each year, looking to play between 4 and 6 win total bets and maybe a bet on MVP. Even with the new writing venture, I made time to get this research done, and feel good about the plays I’ll detail below:
Philadelphia 76ers OVER 50.5 wins (2 unit bet)
I’ll start by saying this team won 51 games last year. That was definitely on the back of Joel Embiid, who was the runner-up in MVP voting. Ben Simmons was not playing, and was traded for James Harden in February, so this upcoming season will be the first time their star duo has a full run together.
Looking at the roster, the offense will run through Harden, Embiid, and Tobias Harris. I do NOT think this is a championship team and would avoid them in that market. However, when you have two stars who can score 30+ any night, I feel you are built for a good regular season. Both players will no doubt sit some games for rest, but they can still pull out wins even when not at full strength if the “rest” games are chosen wisely.
An injury could derail this bet (that’s how all sports work), but I just do not see this team winning less games than last year when the roster has more firepower this year. I am going 2 units on this one, it was one of the two plays I could not wait to hit submit on.
Chicago Bulls UNDER 42.5 wins (2 unit bet)
The Bulls are my team. If I could pick any franchise in the four major sports to win a championship each year, it’s them. I was pretty optimistic on the team last year, and they looked good. However, they had a number of buzzer-beaters, and their record may have been better than they actually deserved with 46 wins.
Patrick Williams is hopefully back to full strength, but even with him at PF, this defense is shaky at best. Nikola Vucevic is among the worst defensive centers in the league, and DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine are definitely offense-first guys. The perimeter defense last year was supported by Lonzo Ball, who is the reason I feel good about this ‘under’ bet.
Lonzo Ball is not going to play for at least a few months, per Bulls reporting. However, I am of the belief he does not play at all this season. He has publicly said that he is unable to run or jump right now, due to his lingering knee issues. I’ll admit I have a touch of PTSD with Bulls point guards from the Derrick Rose years, but this doesn’t feel like something that’s going to go well any time soon. We’ve seen too many NBA players struggle to recover quickly from knee issues to assume the reports from the team are true. Long-term, I hope this is not like Brandon Roy, Penny Hardaway, or Grant Hill (all superior players to Lonzo, but you know what I mean); because if it is, then I think this could be it for Lonzo.
So we are saying that a team with unreliable defense and Alex Caruso as the starting point guard will win more than half their games?! I don’t think so, and I feel confident making this a 2 unit bet size. If LaVine were to go down for even a little bit, this team could lose plenty.
Dallas Mavericks OVER 48.5 wins (1 unit bet)
I’m going to say more on the team, but this is frankly just a bet on Luka Doncic. Last season they won 52 games, so we are not looking for a jump this year. Kristaps Porzingis was traded mid-season last year - I honestly don’t think of him as an impactful loss. While Jalen Brunson leaving will hurt, I think Spencer Dinwiddle (acquired in Porzingis trade) is a more than adequate replacement.
With Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Reggie Bullock, and Davis Bertans (also acquired in Porzingis trade), this team has amazing floor spacing for Doncic to work in. Defensively, the big rotation of Christian Wood, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, and Javale McGee are going to be enough to stay respectable in defending the basket. Doncic could give more effort on that side of the floor, but I can live with his defense as it is.
In my read on this, Luka is going to have a huge season, possibly leading the league in assists. For his size and ability to get to the hoop, opponents have to cheat off of corners more than other ball dominant guards. You can’t give him easy layups through contact, so I am expecting a ton of open looks from outside for their wings and stretch 4’s. I make this only a 1 unit bet, but will be grabbing some extra exposure on Luka a bit later (spoiler).
Denver Nuggets OVER 50.5 wins (1 unit bet)
First off, Nikola Jokic is a treasure to the game of basketball. His game is beautiful - the subtle ways he uses his size for positioning, the gentle touch around the rim, and most of all his sublime passing vision. Watching replays of some of his best passes makes it feel like he can literally see behind him. His defense will likely always be a roadblock to making a long playoff run, but he is a regular season dominator.
Jokic was last season’s MVP, but my play on the Nuggets is more related to two guys returning from injury: Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Both are going to substantially help the scoring output, and the chemistry Murray and Jokic had on a high pick and roll before his injury was among strongest in league. Even if Murray takes a bit of time to get his legs back under him, I think the team will be fine. Porter is someone who can dominate the ball when the others are sitting, so they can really keep their foot on the gas all game.
Lastly, Denver is one of the strongest home court advantage locations in the league. As an indoor game, it might not be as impactful as football, but the elevation does catch opponents at times. For example, if the Lakers are on a 6 game roadtrip and want to sit LeBron for one of those games, Denver will be on the shortlist of consideration. This team won 48 games last year without their 2nd and 3rd best players for all or most of it, and reaching 51 is expected this year (by me at least).
MVP: Luka Doncic - risk 1u to win 4u
Betting the favorite on the board is against everything I believe in when it comes to golf betting, but the NBA is a different beast. Over the past decade, the MVP has opened the season in the top 4 favorites more often than not. For a season this long, water tends to find it’s level, and the best players end up playing the best - makes sense.
It can seem unexciting to bet a market like this with only 4 units as the carrot, but the play is very safe. Assuming Luka stays healthy, his team will be in the playoff mix and he will undoubtedly be the reason why. Compared to the other favorites, he is the clear alpha of his team, maybe of the conference by next year. Looking at the other favorites, I think each has something keeping me away:
Joel Embiid (5/1) - plays with Harden, who will take a lot of stats off Embiid’s box score; greater risk of injury or playing less games than Luka
Giannis Antetokounmpo (6/1) - fits the same mold as Luka as the team’s clear leader, but voters do not reward the same guy over and over again
Kevin Durant (8/1) - plays with Kyrie, who will steal some of the shine; also, this team has a chance to implode like usual
Nikola Jokic (9/1) - covered above, I love him, but he won the last MVP and has a ton of supporting cast returning
Jayson Tatum (11/1) - he is good and all, but with the coaching turmoil in Boston, I think this is an easy call to skip; losing Robert Williams will hurt that team more than you’d think too
Ja Morant (12/1) - if I played someone other than Luka, its Ja; still, I think there could be a bigger drop-off in Memphis from last season; I would not hate playing him in addition to Luka if you wanted to
If you do put this play on Luka, we should be able to hedge a bit by end of season if you’d like. I am in the ‘never hedge’ camp, a topic I will certainly touch on in a Friday post someday, but this bet will likely present that opportunity to hedge for those who like to. If we see one of the guys in the list above neck-and-neck with Luka in MVP odds around the all star break, adding some exposure on the other option would lock in profit.
Closing Thoughts
I am hoping that many of you found this email at least somewhat interesting, even if you are not a fan of the NBA. Periodically, when another sport or market is top of mind, I’d like to do these shorter non-golf posts. While I do bet on the NFL (of course I do, I like gambling and I’m an American), I would never describe myself as sharp in that market. The only time you’ll see another sport covered is when I feel confident enough to share my picks in hopes of both of us making some money.
We’ll return to our usual content next week when we preview The ZOZO Championship, taking place in Chiba, Japan. Research will be a bit trickier for a place that unfamiliar to me, but I am here for it.
Good luck with all your bets!
Matt / Ziggy
If you are reading this, you might know me personally. But either way, thank you for taking the time to read this far, I appreciate it. If you know anyone else who likes pro golf and/or betting, please forward this to them and encourage them to sign up.