Masters Trends
Who can actually win this thing?
Hey golf fans!
After a couple weeks away from Ziggy Golf, I had to make the time for Masters week. We’ll have the usual post tomorrow with course details, some fancy charts, and my bets for the week - I’m proving really skilled at picking the runner-up this year, so won’t want to miss that!
Today I’m using some trends I’ve used in years past to help identify who can win this - it’s far from an exact science, it’s more like a playful exercise to get some affirmation on the guys you already were considering anyway. That being said, it’s usually a fun process, we did identify Rory last year for what it’s worth. (And of course did not actually bet him)
Long Term Trends
Must be younger than 45
Only Jack Nicklaus has won this event after turning 45 (he was 46 when he won in 1986). So while it has happened, we can pretty safely assume that none of the this older crowd is going to beat the stars of today - pretty simple one to start us off.
This eliminates a handful of older returning champions, most relevant of them Sergio and Adam Scott.
Must have played here twice or more
Only Fuzzy Zoeller has won The Masters on his first or second trip here, his was on his first. Even when Tiger won in 2005 at 21 years old, he was already playing in his third iteration of the event.
Massive elimination on this one, 32 guys no longer are viable to win the event this year - most noteworthy among them are Chris Gotterup, Jake Knapp, Marco Penge, Rasmus Hojgaard, Jacob Bridgeman, and Euro star Casey Jarvis.
We’re down to 46 guys already!
Must be Top 50 in the field in driving distance
Distance definitely matters here. Augusta National is not the ‘second shot’ course we often see, you need a fully rounded out game and good form. I am using stats from the past 12 months to capture some rounds for LIV guys, then eliminating anyone not in the top 50 of distance ranks from this period.
Another pretty big cut with this one, 20 more guys get the axe - notables include Morikawa, Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, Hideki, Patty Reed, and Russell Henley. There were more big names, but those were the shortest on the odds board.
Down to only 26.
Must be Top 50 in Around the Green play
Augusta requires greater around the green play than maybe any other course - part of the reason why course history correlations are so high is the creativity a lot of the scrambling play requires. Basically, we don’t want to bet on anyone who could face multiple blow-up holes due to suspect chipping and pitching. I’m using the same filter criteria as distance above.
Only 8 fall out on this one: Nicolai Hojgaard, Koepka, Woodland, Cantlay, Akshay, Burns, Homa, and Dustin Johnson. Down to the teens!
Must be Top 50 in Avoiding 3-Putts
Home to the finest greens in the country, Augusta National will punish bad putters. We’ve seen awful putters contend (Zalatoris) and even win (Hideki), but both of them are less awful in terms of three-putting. They each just miss a lot of putts they should make, but those were often birdie chances squandered.
Caddies have called Augusta the most nuanced and challenging greens to read of any course we see on Tour, likely of any course period. If someone has been three-putting a lot, it’s best to skip betting them outright.
We cut 6 more here, including some huge names: Rory, Bryson, Hatton, Min Woo Lee, Keegan, and Cam Smith.
Must be Top 50 in Par 5 Birdies-or-Better
The four Par 5’s are the only four holes that play under par at Augusta. While the Par 4’s are very long, these 5’s are gettable opportunities. If we can eliminate anyone who hasn’t been scoring on Par 5’s the past year, we are likely crossing guys off the list who can’t get low enough to actually win The Masters.
Only cutting 3 here, but one is a big one: Rahm, Ryan Fox, and Justin Thomas. Down to the final 9 guys.
Must have a Top 30 at Augusta in Last 3 Attempts
Our last longer-term trend in the list, no one has won here in decades that did not also have a Top 30 Masters finish in their last three trips to Augusta.
This one takes out Kurt Kitayama and Wyndham Clark.
Who Is Left Standing
Everything above is working towards narrowing the selections to the most well-rounded golfers who also have experience at Augusta. It’s not surprising then that the remaining names are mostly outstanding players:
Scottie Scheffler
Ludvig Aberg
Xander Schauffele
Cam Young
Robert MacIntyre
Jordan Spieth
Harris English
Last Ten Year Trends
I’m now going to take that list of ten guys above and look over them against trends of the past decade for our Masters winners.
10/10 Have Been Top 30 OWGR
Pretty obvious one, elite golfers win the elite event. With the OWGR system updating every week, this also has a bit of current form baked in as well, which never hurts.
Scottie Scheffler - 1
Ludvig Aberg - 17
Xander Schauffele - 10
Cam Young - 3
Robert MacIntyre - 8
Jordan Spieth - 61
Harris English - 20
Bye bye Jordan Spieth, I think we already knew you were not going to win this season anyway.
10/10 Had a Top 5 Finish in Current Season
This one looks closer at more recent form. It’s OK if our guy hasn’t won this season, but we want to see that they have contended at the very least.
I have our list of guys remaining below with their best finish in the 2026 season listed:
Scottie Scheffler - 1
Ludvig Aberg - 3
Xander Schauffele - 3
Cam Young - 1
Robert MacIntyre - 2
Harris English - 21
Harris English is having a good season and fits Augusta pretty well, would consider him in DFS, but we can cross him off for this exercise. Down to 5.
10/10 Had a Top 30 in One of Their Last Two Events
A more immediate view of current form, no one is going to ‘get right’ at Augusta, at least not enough to actually win this thing.
Same format as before, I have our options bulleted with their best finish in the last two events they played in:
Scottie Scheffler - 22
Ludvig Aberg - 5
Xander Schauffele - 3
Cam Young - 1
Robert MacIntyre - 2
This one eliminates no one, so we move on to the final stat with 5 guys left in play.
9/10 Had Two Top 15 Finishes in Last Three Events
Taking form a step further, we want the guys who are piling up good finishes recently. This one is going to be our final list of cuts from the trends:
Scottie Scheffler - 12 / 24 / 22
Ludvig Aberg - 3 / 5 / 5
Xander Schauffele - 24 / 3 / 4
Cam Young - 7 / 3 / 1
Robert MacIntyre - 24 / 4 / 2
Final Survivors
Most years when I do this, we end up with one or two guys, but we actually have 4 this year!
Your winner will come from the pool of Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, Cam Young, and Robert MacIntyre. (Spoiler for tomorrow - I bet none of these guys!)
Closing Thoughts
I saw more posts like this one than ever before this week. I’m not going to pretend that they are showing us who’s going to win, but most are a decent exercise to narrow the field a bit - at the very least, kill a few minutes during work.
Aiming to have a full preview tomorrow, but if anyone wants thoughts on office pools you’re in before then, leave me a comment or reply to the email.
Matt / Ziggy