Hey golf fans!
We’re back after a week off - pretty exciting Rocket Classic, Aldrich Potgieter won on the 5th playoff hole over Max Greyserman. On the LIV side, Patrick Reed grabbed the win and has hopes of making the Ryder Cup team this year (doubtful in my eyes).
Now we turn to the John Deere, a usually weak field on a very cool course. Let’s get started…
Stats to Value
This event goes back to 1972 when it debuted as The Quad Cities Open. Those events were held on a different course and were hosted by Ed McMahon, kind of odd. Title sponsors have been Miller, Hardees, and now John Deere - we’re definitely in the Midwest. Since 2000, it’s been played at TPC Deere Run under John Deere sponsorship.
This course was built in 2000 in Silvis, Illinois after a large donation of land and money from some descendants of the John Deere family. It’s a TPC course because the PGA was the beneficiary of the donation - hence the sponsor/course naming. The family asked for a local designer. Enter D.A. Weibring. As an Illinois native and three-time PGA Tour champion of the Quad Cities Open, he was the perfect choice.
Weibring left the natural environment undisturbed as much as possible. The land he was working with has a rich American history too. The land’s past includes Native American settlements, coal mining, cattle breeding, and farming. I found a quote from Weibring about how easy his job was when working with this opportunity:
“It has all the things I think you’d like to have in a golf course. There are elevation changes, great views and scenery, and hardwood trees. You have the Rock River complemented with small ponds and deep ravines… and best of all, there’s no real estate.”
It’s one of the most rural courses we’ll ever see host a PGA event and in my opinion one of the most underrated. Kind of a shame that there is no sign of schedule makers looking out for this course. It’s public and not that expensive, so definitely one of the more playable Tour stops for us.
TPC Deere Run is a 7,250 yard par 71 with wide fairways. It has much more shaping than Detroit GC did last week, so distance is not going to factor in for me. Fairway percentage is a high 71% because the rough is one of the more penal on Tour. I’m going to consider driving accuracy as the only stat that matters OTT, but it’s a less-than-driver course for sure.
The driving test isn’t that demanding, but a few holes have creative tests. The 4th hole below has a huge tree in the middle of the fairway, adding a lot of strategy to an otherwise straight-forward hole.
If you are hitting from the fairway, GIR% is a whopping 79%. Compare that to the rough % of 52% and it’s clear you need to set yourself up for approach shots. Once you do, it becomes a proximity test to pin locations. The average approach range tips under 150 again, so I’ll include that in models this week.
Even though greens are easy to hit, we need to consider around the green play. It’s a much tougher test than last week in this regard, many greens are elevated with sloped run offs on the front and thick rough on the back.
Greens are going to be Bent grass and are pretty flat. Putts are almost all breaking towards the river the winds along the course and there’s not really any tiered greens. I’m going to want to see good recent putting on whoever we back this week.
Last week was “distance-wedges-putting”; this week could be called “approach-putting”. We’ll want fairway finders. It’s easy to hit these wide fairways though, so I will put more emphasis on approach and wedge play than anything else. The most important stat for me will be recent putting - decent iron play and a hot putter will win this.
Model Result
Link to the model is here, results below:
Form Fit
Ben Griffin is playing some of the best golf among all pros, not just this field. He’s likely the deserving favorite, but no chance I could suggest betting him outright at sub-20/1. A finishing position bet is likely safe though, no one more confident than Griffin right now. I personally feel he is a lock for the Ryder Cup team, but also believe he is aware how much another win would move the needle. Good play, bad price, think we can find exposure outside of outright.
Kevin Roy comes in 2nd after an 8th last week and an 18th at the Canadian Open a few weeks ago. I don’t have enough knowledge of him to think he’ll win or even contend at this stage of his career, but wanted to note him as a potential DFS darling. Would not put a full bet on him since most of his career data is suspect - he did finish 31st here a couple years ago though.
Course Fit
Lucas Glover should be a great fit for this course, accuracy and easier putting. His history here is great, including a win in 2021. His most recent form shows a good result, 9th at Travelers, but multiple MC’s before that. I think he warrants consideration based on history and last event, but I won’t get there when I factor in the price and how 2025 as a whole has been.
Denny McCarthy will be a popular pick this week for a reason. The course fit is really strong and if Denny is ever going to win it will be on a course like this that rewards accuracy and does not penalize lack of distance. Personally, I decided to stop betting Denny outright years ago, so I won’t include him this week in that market - I saw enough of near misses once in contention, have doubt he can seal the deal. That being said, great fit and history.
Skill Fit
We see Glover again top a chart. If his form was more consistent then I might get there, but alas I will not.
Si Woo Kim is someone I will strongly consider though. I believe in his win equity really any time the course seems to fit, and this one certainly does. He’s a fairway finder who does better with short approach than long approach. Putter will dictate where he actually finishes but I would feel good with having Si Woo on the card in case it shows up hot. The glaring red flag is that he’s only played here twice, most recently in 2018, and missed the cut both times.
If this event came up two months ago, I would likely be betting Bud Cauley. His form has just cooled off a bit since Florida, so I am way less interested in him now. Another guy I might include in DFS lineups but not in full unit bets.
Total Fit
Quick bullets on the top ten below:
Griffin - awesome form, too short of price
Glover - great course fit, question the form
Roy - great form, unproven in contention
Smalley - love the irons, should consider him
Grillo - proven winner having a good year, bad history
Clanton - future star, contended here last year, consider him
Cauley - window has passed for him to win
Thompson - last year’s winner, playing well, not for me on B2B
Johnson - do not bet him, has great history here though
Keith - form is good, true win equity may be zero
My Plays
Tough card for me to narrow down this week with so many rising stars in the field. I’d love to bet Michael Thorbjornson, Luke Clanton, Jackson Koivun, and Jackson Suber since I believe each will be a PGA winner someday - however, it felt like bad card creation to focus so much on short-priced young stars. Instead I am opting to include some more proven names and a couple younger guys I believe in. If you did want to get one of these young guns in as a bet, I would go with Thorbjornson.
Si Woo Kim Outright (33/1) - risk .31u to win 10.23u (MGM)
After a great May, June was not kind to Si Woo - 31st, 42nd, 84th. His history at the John Deere is also not great - 2 MC’s. Undeterred, I am starting my outright card with him. Those MC’s were in 2013 and 2018, so hardly concerning in my eyes. The recent form is more of a worry, but I still think he’s the type of guy who can pop at any time and think this course suits him really well.
Si Woo is a fairway finder (11th in the field) and favors shorter approach shots (27th in field in proximity under 150 yards). Bent is his best career surface as well, so we have the makings of a potential spike putting week. He’s often a boom or bust guy with irons and putting, so I would not venture into finishing position bets with him this week, just worth the shot on an outright bet with a proven winner who typically thrives in these conditions.
Pierceson Coody Outright (45/1) - risk .23u to win 10.35u (MGM)
The price on Coody is shockingly bad this week, unlikely this is still out there at time of reading. That being said, it’s low for a reason - he’s been playing great golf on Korn Ferry in 2025 and not awful in his few PGA events. Right now he’s on a run of 3 straight top 7 finishes on KFT, before that was a 12th in KFT and a 16th at the Chuck Schwab on the PGA side.
I believe in him as a prospect, hence I keep going back to him. It can be frustrating to watch odds get worse and worse while we have not hit a winner on him, but that’s just the nature of betting. I believe he’s on the right track and was happy to pay the price tag Monday morning. If you cannot find better than 40/1 on him, I might suggest playing a top 5 instead (odds will move less dramatically in derivative markets).
Alex Smalley Outright (55/1) - risk .19u to win 10.45u (Bet365)
Smalley’s had a good 2025, just less consistent as of late. His recent results show a 28th at the PGA, a MC at the Schwab, a 13th in Canada, then another MC last week in Detroit. Harder to trust a guy ping-ponging back and forth like this, but I think the price and course fit make sense.
Smalley’s best career finish was a 2nd place at the Deere in 2023. He did MC here last year, so there’s that, but I have seen him play some very accurate golf this year and feel the time is right for him to breakthrough this week. He seems like a guy who is playing better on easy courses like this one and might have had enough experience to avoid crumbling once in contention as he has in the past.
Emiliano Grillo Outright (75/1) - risk .14u to win 10.50u (Fanduel)
Grillo was striping irons like nobody’s business before Detroit where he lost 4.8 shots APP. Before that though he had put up a run of +6.1, +9.4, and +1.1. He’s gaining OTT nearly every week this year, so no concerns on that front. The putter is a career-long problem, but we are seeing about half green over the past 10-12 events, an uptick for his usual stats.
The bet on him is really a bet on his irons getting hot. Grillo has 2 career PGA Tour wins, both off the back of great iron play - one of them he lost shots putting and still won, almost never see that happen. If he’s hot on approach, the putting test being simpler opens the door for him to make more than usual. In 2 trips to The Deere, he has an MC and a 2nd place - both saw shots gained putting.
I think the price is more than fair for his win equity and believe you should be able to find comparable prices pretty easily.
Ryo Hisatsune Outright (80/1) - risk .13u to win 10.40u (MGM)
Last guy on the outright card is Ryo. Between Coody and Ryo we have two guys I have bet a ton without actually hitting a winner on them - happy to return to Ryo at this price. He’s not a long hitter by any means, so these courses are where he’ll find more success over time.
I like how his game should match this course and how much spike potential he has with his irons, similar to Grillo. Between the two, I think Grillo has more win equity since he has proven it a couple times already, but Ryo has the brighter future.
Ben Griffin Top 20 - risk 1u to win 0.95u (Bet365)
I felt like this was good enough value on the hottest golfer in the field. Over his last 6 events, Griffin has finished top 20 in all of them and top 10 in 4 of them - consider that sample size includes 2 majors, 2 signature events, and 2 small events. It doesn’t matter where we play or what the field looks like, Griffin is rolling right now. Outright is not necessarily a bad look, the price kept me off, but the finishing position market at nearly even odds is good to go.
Denny McCarthy Top 20 - risk 1u to win 1.50u (MGM)
I had zero interest in Denny outright, but do expect he plays well enough to finish top 20. This is the type of place he can excel and the recent form shows his irons are coming together after a bad spring. His last 3 trips to the Deere have seen 3 top 10 finishes, history as good as it could be.
Make Cut Parlay: Jason Day, Davis Thompson, Bud Cauley - risk 1u to win 1.85u (Bet365)
I added three guys I feel have high floors for this bet. Cauley I do not believe can win, but the play is as steady as anyone. Thompson is the reigning champ here, think the course fits him perfectly and he should be in the mix again. Day is the most accomplished guy in the field and will make the cut easily.
Si Woo Kim over Sungjae Im - risk 1u to win .80u (Bet365)
I talked about why I like the shot on Si Woo outright above, this play is more rooted in fading Sungjae. He’s now up to 12 straight events losing shots APP, really shocking considering that was always his strength. The results have not been as bad as they should have been due to his exquisite scrambling happening this year, but you can’t count on that forever. If you are so so on Si Woo, I would find anyone you like better to take against Sungjae.
Luke Clanton over Aldrich Potgieter - risk 1u to win .80u (MGM)
Nothing too complicated with this one, I think highly of both young guns but only one of them is coming off their first career win. I expect Potgieter to have a slow start and Clanton was one of my last cuts on the outright market, easy add decision for me.
Degen Corner
Only one non-PGA Tour event this week, the BMW in Germany. I am backing Matti Schmid as my main lean, a German-born player having a great past year. After him, I believe in Haotong Li most weeks and think Keita Nakajima is a good course fit. Bradbury is available at long odds but is coming off a strong week last week, so playing him with form only in mind.
Closing Thoughts
Coming off the one week break from Ziggy Golf and previewing the most rural event of the year, I would not have it any other way. Like most people, I enjoy the majors most, the bigger/historic events 2nd, then these little ones a bit less. However, these fields often lead to the coolest moments, a chance for someone to grab a win that literally changes their lives.
4th of July weekend is not usually the highest demand for spots on TV, but by Sunday afternoon it might be nice to sit back and watch one of our guys cruise to victory from the couch - that’s my hope at least. Of all the holidays of the year, I feel like this one is the most fun for grown ups - hopefully it stays under 100 where you are and you’re able to enjoy the holiday, maybe get a round in where you can.
That will do it! If anyone has questions on anything, leave me a comment or reply to the email, whichever you prefer, and I’ll get back to you pretty quickly. As always, best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy