Cognizant Preview

Still the Honda to me

Hey golf fans!

I did not see Jacob Bridgeman coming as the guy to prevent Rory from lifting a trophy, but here we are. Huge props to Bridgeman, slept on the lead multiple nights and held on strong enough to grab what is easily his biggest career win. He did withdraw from this week, will be curious to see how he gets priced in future events - the form had been good and with this resume-booster, I could see value on him if prices stay on the longer side.

We did not fare well with our pre-event bets, Hideki and Cantlay both fell short of Top 20. The daily bets did go 11-1 though, so I had that to boost the bankroll this weekend even if the pre-event bets continue to tread water and fall short on outrights.

We have a pretty full week of tours - The PGA will start the Florida Swing, LPGA is again playing night golf for Americans while in Asia, and the Euro Tour has an event in South Africa. Let’s get started…

Stats to Value

PGA National is a resort with five total courses in Palm Beach Gardens. Thankfully, we see one course for all rounds of the event - “The Champion” designed by Tom Fazio and touched up by Jack Nicklaus. We saw some challenging courses over the past month, but they’ve largely lacked the danger of blow up holes - PGA National definitely has them though.

Players are going to encounter a whopping 15 holes with water hazards in play. They’re not just ornamental like some of the ocean courses either, most will be ponds that must be carried. In the past three years, no course has seen more water balls. It isn’t necessarily long at 7100 yards, but it’s a par 70 with forced lay-ups due to the water. It used to rank as one of the hardest on the schedule, but remodels have made this a much easier test in recent years.

Danger areas dictate where you can play off the tee. The rough is short and non-penal, making fairway finding less urgent as well. PGA National is only seven miles from the ocean and doesn’t have many trees, so winds can pick up. With greater winds, players are further incentivized to go iron off the tee. Broadly, I’m less concerned with OTT skills this week.

What I am concerned with is what happens with the 2nd shot. A course of this length usually showcases guys with the best wedge game on approach, but the proximity percentages here spike from 150-200 yards. The water hazards set up a pretty consistent distance on approach, so we can safely value these stats this week - not much variability on distance and only two par 5’s. I think it’s wise to focus your attention on approach game rather than off the tee most weeks, but even more so here.

The longer approach range and windy conditions are going to lead to plenty of scrambling. With the challenge being so varied, I think it’s wise to use a general ‘Bogey Avoidance’ stat in models.

Greens are pure Bermuda, the norm for the next month. Bermuda history is the most predictive of any surface; we’ll use only Bermuda stats for this part of the season when adding putting stats. The greens are slightly larger than average at around 7000 square feet. However, they’re not that complicated. Putting is the only area where PGA National historically plays easier than average. My takeaway from this will be focusing our safety stats elsewhere.

The Bear Trap

If you thought you heard “Kukuya” a lot during the West Coast Swing, get ready to hear just as much about “The Bear Trap” this week. The name is an homage to Jack Nicklaus and features the 15th, 16th, and 17th holes. These three holes represent the 4th hardest stretch of the season. Sunday can have fireworks when the final pairings reach this test.

The 15th is a 180 par 3 with full carry over water. The pin placement gets progressively more challenging as the week goes on. By Sunday, the pin is tucked in the narrow back of the green between the water and a bunker - hit that sand and the water is still in play for you.

The 16th is probably the best scoring chance, but still involves a 175-ish yard carry over water. The green is at least safer to hit into than the other holes, but birdies will be rare.

Lastly the 17th, a 190 yard par 3. A peninsula green again shows the pin placement dictating the challenge. Short of the green is the water, so birdies will be almost non-existent by Sunday.

Editor’s Note: I ran way short of time on getting a full preview written - basically everything from this point down is only going to be screenshots of various models and my bets for the week. Apologies to anyone looking forward to this, I was not even close on having time this week. :(

Model Result

Link to the model is here, results below:

Form Fit

Course Fit

Skill Fit

Total Fit

My Plays

Outrights

• Davis Thompson (45/1) - risk .23u to win 10.35 (Bet365)

• Aaron Rai (41/1) - risk .25u to win 10.25u (DK)

• Haotong Li (47/1) - risk .22u to win 10.34u (DK)

• Tom Kim (70/1) - risk .14u to win 9.80u (MGM)

• David Ford (100/1) - risk .09u to win 9u (Score)

• Luke Clanton (140/1) - risk .07u to win 9.80u (Bet365)

Finishing Position

• Shane Lowry Top 20 - risk 1u to win .94u (DK)

• Ryan Gerard Top 20 - risk 1u to win .95u (DK)

Matchups

• Johnny Keefer over Thorbjorn Olesen - risk 1u to win .91u (Bet365)

Cutline

• Lowry, Gerard, Keith Mitchell Make Cut - risk 1u to win .85u (Bet365)

• Note: if you play the above, DK has better odds, but I have been severely limited on make cut plays on DK

Degen Corner

• Antoine Rozner (50/1) - risk .20u to win 10u (Bet365)

• Angel Ayora (13/1) - risk .80u to win 10.40u (FD)

• Ruoning Yin (30/1) - risk .27u to win 8.10u (FD)

• Miyu Yamashita (25/1) - risk .33u to win 8.25u (FD)

• HJ Kim (20/1) - risk .40u to win 8u (CZR)

Closing Thoughts

One of the weaker emails to ever come out of Ziggy Golf, but life sometimes gets in the way still. Over the next couple weeks, we may not have any posts - at most they will look like this one today. My other job has a busy period starting up, but always free to reply to people if you wanted to reach out with any questions those weeks.

Hopefully this weekend has an exciting event in store for us as we’re still stuck inside for what feels like the 10th month of winter. PGA National usually has had fireworks in the final round and with some winds expected, we should expect more of the same in 2026.

If anyone has questions on my data or bets you are considering, you know where to find me. As always, best of luck with all your bets.

Matt / Ziggy