Hey golf fans,
And with that, major season had ended. Scottie really dominated this thing, as anticlimactic as an Open Sunday has been, never once thought he was not pulling through. He’s up to four majors, just a US Open away from the Grand Slam, and shows no signs of slowing down.
Now we have a much less prestigious ‘open’, the 3M Open in Minnesota. Going to have a preview of the course and then some bets listed, the usual.
Stats to Value
The 3M Open has a short history. From 2001 to 2018, this was a Champions Tour (Senior Tour) event. Then in 2019 the course was renovated to add some additional challenge and began hosting this as a PGA event.
TPC Twin Cities sits in Blaine, Minnesota, a little north of Minneapolis. It was designed by Arnold Palmer in 2000 and had a 2019 redesign to add some distance and narrow fairways. Palmer courses do not all share similarities like Pete Dye or Don Ross courses, so not too much to value with the designer in our models this week.
Unlike the Midwest TPC Deere Run of a few weeks ago, TPC Twin Cities is fully private. Initiation fees are around $20K, so unless some of you know a member, this one is not overly playable by us.
Way back in the Florida Swing, we saw a ton of water holes at PGA National. This week will be similar to that (really this course has a Florida feel to it). There are a total of 27 bodies of water on and around the course, framed by large trees throughout. Unfortunately, the course is also littered with houses, so some of the natural beauty is lost at times.
Over the past few years, TPC Twin Cities has ranked 5th in penalty strokes per round. This makes control off the tee and with long irons paramount. It’s not a ton of difficult shots or even angles to plan for - just avoid the water and a surefire blow-up hole.
The course plays at just over 7400 yards as a par 71. This isn’t long enough to exclude any short hitters, but the length and past winners definitely push me to value distance this week. I’ll look at recent OTT stats as well - if a guy is good with his long irons, I won’t be opposed to backing a shorter hitter.
Over the history of this event, 48% of approach shots come from 175 yards or longer. I’ll use this in Skill Fit scores this week along with general approach stats. GIR% here is a very high 73%, due in part to the greens being on the larger side. As long as your drive is playable, you have a shot at the green.
With the high GIR rate, I’m not going to put any ARG stats into models this week. The green complexes are among the simplest we’ll see, putting test is straightforward. We have Bent greens of average speed, faster than Europe the past couple weeks. All of my notes from previous years say that greens are largely flat. I’d like to back good putters, but I think the test is simple enough that anyone could have their spike putting week. I’ll include Bent Putting stats, just not much else in this area.
We want to back good drivers this week, ideally with a distance edge on the field. It’s alright if they are not elite in distance as long as they consistently gain OTT. Approach will be huge as usual, I’d like to see good recent APP as well as long-term. Short game is tougher to predict since it’s fairly easy, so I’m good with backing guys who sometimes struggle in this area. I’ll be looking at Florida history when narrowing the field too.
Model Result
Link to the model is here, results below:
Form Fit
Course Fit
Skill Fit
Total Fit
My Plays
Going to be a bit more informal in this section this week, breaking down only into markets instead of each bet individually. If readers have any thoughts on which style you prefer, let me know via comment or reply to email.
Outrights
In the outright market, my first names in mind were Mike Thorbjornson and Jake Knapp - then I saw their odds adjusting and them run away with being the most popular bet guys on Twitter. Not scientific, but longer-term readers know I try to avoid backing the most commonly bet guys…could be alright with 4th or 5th most bet, but usually good to avoid the obvious ones everyone is taking.
I knew I wanted to target good strikers still and hope they can make noise on the greens with it being an easier week for the short stick. On a high level, I think Akshay Bhatia is one of the best iron players in the world when he is on, so it was an easy decision to add him. He’s been slumping through most of the mid-season, then looked much better in his last few. If he is contending Sunday, this is the guy everyone will feel they should have bet.
The guy on my card most similar to Akshay is Davis Thompson - elite striker who lacks some ARG experience and is a so-so putter. His ball striking has been good all year, seen some decent finishes and he has won on Tour before like Akshay. I think if he brings even his B+ game he can contend this week.
After Akshay and Thompson, I picked Kurt Kitayama and Taylor Pendrith, batching them together since the handicap was similar. Both guys finished top 10 at Twin Cities last year, have won on Tour, and are above average distance with good recent iron play. Pendrith is the safer play to me, Kurt just has some blow-up in him.
With that four-pack of outrights, I feel we have good exposure to some of the better ball strikers in the field, all with plus distance except Akshay. Only Bhatia is someone I would call a ‘good’ putter though, so everyone has their deficiencies. I parlayed them in two batches to make the cut as well - if you don’t like one of them, I would suggest parlaying the other three to make the cut, you’ll get good odds with three in there.
Matchups
Only played two of them this week, both at plus odds. Really they were both rooted in fading someone more than backing someone. I think Sungjae is still lost despite his good finishes in Europe, so I wanted to fade him. Kevin Yu has been scorching hot, kind of a perfect matchup.
In the other, I am betting against Max Homa despite his recent improvement as well. Cam Champ is not really a PGA Tour-level player anymore, but the run he is on says otherwise. I would not take him to win at roughly the same odds as all my outrights, but the path to beat Max is clear - basically don’t hit too many out of bounds. Champ is among the longest hitters in the world and a bad short game player…short game is so much easier here I think we have a safe one.
Cutline
Keeping up the fading, I am going to roll back Sahith Theegala MC’ing again. I personally root for him, but it’s dire right now. With this much water, I fear errant shots will punish him to the max and I don’t expect to see him this weekend.
Next I expect Cam Davis to MC. His history at courses like this is good, but the form has been putrid. Pure skill-wise, Davis should be a top 30 player in the world, but something has kept him firmly away from that ranking over his career. Now we are seeing likely the worst stretch of golf we’ve ever seen from him, happy to try to capitalize on what we’re seeing.
Degen Corner
Number of other tours in action this week. Biggest event is the LPGA Scottish Open, I am taking a handful from mid-range. If I had to pick only one, it would be Ariya Jutanugarn - been great form all year, think the short game can get it done for her. Should weather be awful, Leona Maguire is a good one to have in the chamber as well.
On the LIV side, I knew I wanted one of the elites (Bryson, Rahm, Hatton, Niemann). I went with Niemann somewhat due to price - I don’t think the other elites should be as much shorter as they are and am not worried about Jaoco’s most recent major letdown. It’s an approach-heavy course and I feel good with Niemann’s win equity.
On Korn Ferry, our best tour of the summer, I will continue to back Adrien Dumont de Chassart (ADDC). He was at one point the top amateur in the world and has been showing good results most of the year. Likely he has been my worst P&L from the tour, but not jumping ship yet.
Lastly, for the Senior Open, I have a couple tips down but would always suggest betting smaller on this tour. Justin Leonard is a great fit for the course, Soren Kjeldsen been one of the better forms of the summer. If you don’t want as much risk but just want some action, Padraig Harrington is the favorite and should contend, just too short of price for my strategy.
Closing Thoughts
Here we are, once again looking at the week of golf knowing full-well that it’s not the same as a major week. I personally can get invested in any golf event, especially with bets going, but we can all feel how much less important it is to the audience at large. I talk often about this type of win potentially meaning more to one of these guys than that Open meant to Scheffler, it could literally change someone’s life to win a PGA event - no shame if you as a fan are feeling less of a pull to watch though, it’s the nature of sports that don’t have a traditional ascending linear schedule.
Hard to believe this is the last event in July - this happens to all of us every year, time flies by. Your 30’s felt faster than your 20’s, this year feels faster than last year, our perspective is always adjusting and by the end we’ll feel like all 80-ish years felt too fast.
As a reader of a golf betting blog, you are already clearly a very smart man or woman. You don’t need my rambling thoughts to remind you of this, but here they are anyway - make the most of every one of these weeks, even the 3M can create some excitement and memories. I’ve played some cool courses myself the past few years, but my favorite golf moments have been the 9 hole rounds at a local dog-track after work with someone I love and a couple beers.
So whether it’s the fanciest course you’ve ever played or a worn-down place you’ve been 100 times…whether it’s the last major or a small-purse event in Minnesota…whether you’re grilling steaks or hot dogs…no matter where you are or what you are doing, be present. The best moments are usually hard to see coming and you’ll miss them completely if you’re looking too far ahead.
Hopefully we get a more suspenseful finish than last week, maybe hit a winner in a dramatic playoff. Either way, enjoy your week and best of luck with all your bets.
Matt / Ziggy
Awesome work!!!